洪水预报中特征值预报的若干数学方法比较   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李致家  孔祥光 《湖泊科学》1997,9(2):117-122

讨论研究了水文特征值预报的数学方法,统计回归模型、神经网络模型和模糊回归模型。三个计处实例表明如果系统的线性关系较好,统计回归模型的结果最好;如果系统的线民生关系差,神经网络模型的结果最好;如果用于率定模型的资料太短,任何一个模型都不可靠。  相似文献   

基于突变理论的太湖蓝藻水华危险性分区评价   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

刘聚涛  高俊峰  姜加虎  许妍  赵家虎 《湖泊科学》2010,22(4):488-494

蓝藻水华暴发是湖泊生态系统中营养物质长期累积的结果,是系统营养经长期演化后的极端状态.突变理论评价方法无需确定指标权重,减少了人为主观因素,并且计算方便.本文基于突变理论,采取蓝藻水华暴发的表征因子(叶绿素浓度)和导致蓝藻水华暴发的环境因子(总氮和总磷)作为潜在危险性评价指标,蓝藻水华的面积、范围以及暴发频次作为历史危险性评价指标建立多准则蓝藻水华暴发风险评价指标体系,并结合太湖九个分区进行蓝藻水华暴发危险性分区及全湖评价.研究结果表明:竺山湖和西部沿岸为极重危险性湖区;梅梁湾为重度危险性湖区;南部沿岸、贡湖和大太湖为中度危险性湖区;箭湖东茭咀、东太湖和胥湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性较小,为轻微危险性湖区.整体上看,太湖蓝藻水华暴发危险性程度由轻到重基本上沿东南-西北方向变化,与营养盐浓度由低到高分布趋势相一致.根据评价结果,可以明确太湖各区遭遇蓝藻水华暴发危险性的大小,为蓝藻水华风险管理和应急处理提供科学依据.  相似文献   

Active control of MDOF structures with supplemental electrorheological fluid dampers     

Y. Ribakov  J. Gluck 《地震工程与结构动力学》1999,28(2):143-156

A method for design of an active control system for multistorey structures using Electrorheological (ER) dampers is presented. Incorporated at various levels of a structural frame, ER dampers are used to improve the response of the structure during earthquakes. Optimal control theory was used to design the ER devices. The aim of the design is to find the most suitable combination of the minimum required forces produced by the ER dampers to obtain the optimal structural response. The mechanical response of ER fluid dampers is regulated by an electric field, depending on the displacements and velocities of the frame. Numerical analysis of an ER damped seven-storey structure is represented as an example. Significant improvement of the structural response was obtained using optimal active controlled ER dampers compared to passive controlled and uncontrolled structures. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

THE THEORY OF RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF FUZZY STOCHASTIC DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS WITH A SINGLE DEGREE OF FREEDOM     

Y. ZHANG  G. WANG  F. SU  Z. QIAO 《地震工程与结构动力学》1996,25(3):235-251

Most real-life structural/mechanical systems have complex geometrical and material properties and operate under complex fuzzy environmental conditions. These systems are certainly subjected to fuzzy random excitations induced by the environment. For an analytical treatment of such a system subjected to fuzzy random excitations, it becomes necessary to establish the general theory of dynamic response of a system to fuzzy random excitations. In this paper, the theory of response, fuzzy mean response and fuzzy covariance response of a single-degree-of-freedom (sdf) system to fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is put forward. The theory of response analysis of an sdf system to both stationary and non-stationary fuzzy random excitations in the time domain and frequency domain is established. Two examples are considered in order to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the theory, and the models of stationary filtered white noise and non-stationary filtered white noise fuzzy stochastic processes of the earthquake ground motion are set up. Methods of analysis for fuzzy random seismic response of sdf systems are put forward using the principles of response analysis of an sdf fuzzy random dynamic system.  相似文献   

考虑Hansbo渗流的二维Biot固结有限元分析     

刘忠玉  张家超  郑占垒  关聪 《岩土力学》2018,39(12):4617-4626

为进一步深入研究弹性饱和黏性土地基的二维固结机制,引入Hansbo渗流方程描述固结过程中的非达西渗流,修正Biot二维固结方程。基于加权残数法,给出相应的有限元数值求解格式。通过和饱和黏性土一维非达西渗流固结理论有限体积法数值结果的对比,证明数值计算方法的有效性。在此基础上,探讨Hansbo渗流参数对二维地基固结进程的影响。计算结果表明,在固结初期,Hansbo渗流将增强Mandel-Cryer效应,增大孔压的峰值,并延长孔隙水压力达到峰值的时间;在固结中后期,整个土层存在孔隙水压力滞后现象。同时,Hansbo渗流将阻碍地基沉降的发展。而且,上述影响会随着Hansbo渗流参数的增大而更加明显。  相似文献   

我国低序次扭动构造体系控油模式研究   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

康玉柱 《地质力学学报》2018,24(6):737-747

以地质力学理论为指导,通过开展塔里木、准噶尔-吐哈、走廊、鄂尔多斯、四川、松辽、渤海湾等8个（地区）构造体系控油作用研究,深刻认识到油气田分布主要受各类低序次扭动构造体系的控制,在此基础上,发展和建立了五类低序次扭动构造体系控油模式,包括帚状构造体系、旋扭构造体系、雁列构造体系、入字型构造体系和反"S"型构造体系。文章分别以具体典型实例系统概述了其各类低序次构造体系的形成特征、油气成藏条件及分布规律,认为构造体系的形成受不同构造环境和应力场控制;不同低序次扭动构造控制油气田分布规律各异。这些控油模式的建立对当前和今后油气勘探和油气田发现有重要指导意义。   相似文献   

某电站地下厂房裂隙发育规律及其对围岩稳定性的影响     

李志远  宫海灵  张永辉  李璞 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2018,48(5):1574-1580

裂隙岩体内的洞室围岩块体稳定问题是抽水蓄能电站地下厂房建设中要解决的重要工程地质问题。为了在厂房开挖之前较准确地预测不稳定块体的发育位置,本文以某抽水蓄能电站为例,对厂房探洞内的裂隙进行统计分析,结合厂房区构造断层的发育情况,确定了裂隙发育规律;根据裂隙发育规律将厂房区岩体划分为A、B、C、D、E 5个构造分区;并利用Unwedge程序,以各分区裂隙组合为基础,确定可能形成的块体位置,评价了其稳定性状况。研究结果表明,裂隙受多期构造控制,在一定范围内具有方向性,A、E区优势裂隙与构造产状接近,B、C、D区优势裂隙与构造产状斜交;裂隙在厂房上、下游侧边墙各形成6处潜在不稳定块体,顶拱处形成10处潜在不稳定块体,右端墙处形成1处潜在不稳定块体。  相似文献   

The effects of blade twist and nacelle shape on the performance of horizontal axis tidal current turbines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2017

The paper presents the effects of blade twist and nacelle shape on the performance of horizontal axis tidal current turbines using both analytical and numerical methods. Firstly, in the hydrodynamic design procedure, the optimal profiles of untwisted and twisted blades and their predicted theoretical turbine performance are obtained using the genetic algorithm method. Although both blade profiles produce desired rated rotational speed, the twisted blade achieves higher power and thrust performance. Secondly, numerical simulation is performed using sliding mesh technique to mimic rotating turbine in ANSYS FLUENT to validate the analytical results. The Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approximation of the turbulence parameters is applied to obtain the flow field around the turbine. It is found that power and axial thrust force from BEMT (Blade Element Momentum Theory) method are under-predicted by 2% and 8% respectively, compared with numerical results. Afterwards, the downstream wake field of the turbine is investigated with two different nacelle shapes. It is found that the rotor performance is not significantly affected by the different nacelle shapes. However, the structural turbulence caused by the conventional nacelle is stronger than that by the NACA-profiled shape, and the former can cause detrimental effect on the performance of the downstream turbines in tidal farms.  相似文献   

Time-domain numerical and segmented ship model experimental analyses of hydroelastic responses of a large container ship in oblique regular waves     

《Applied Ocean Research》2017

Real sea conditions are characterized by multidirectional sea waves. However, the prediction of hull load responses in oblique waves is a difficult problem due to numeral divergence. This paper focuses on the investigation of numerical and experimental methods of load responses of ultra-large vessels in oblique regular waves. A three dimensional nonlinear hydroelastic method is proposed. In order to numerically solve the divergence problem of time-domain motion equations in oblique waves, a proportional, integral and derivative (PID) autopilot model is applied. A tank model measurement methodology is used to conduct experiments for hydroelastic responses of a large container ship in oblique regular waves. To implement the tests, a segmented ship model and oblique wave testing system are designed and assembled. Then a series of tests corresponding to various wave headings are carried out to investigate the vibrational characteristics of the model. Finally, time-domain numerical simulations of the ship are carried out. The numerical analysis results by the presented method show good agreement with experimental results.  相似文献   

海底管道出露悬空环境风险的定量评价研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李佳峻  郭伟其  张杰  陈新玺 《海洋科学》2017,41(10):10-18

海底管道是海洋油气输送的主要方式,其运行状况直接关系到海上油气田的安全和海洋生态环境的质量。本文先以海底管道出露悬空作为故障树的顶事件,分析出海洋环境中各项基本事件,构建针对海洋环境的海底管道故障树模型;再以灰色模糊识别为理论基础,量化对海底管道安全有影响的海洋环境因素,并以层次分析法对每个风险因素进行分级赋权,确定评价指标范围和权重,进而构建海洋环境条件的海底管道风险评价体系。利用该体系对平湖油气田海底管道4个区段进行环境风险评价,避免了将整段管道一同评价导致的信息均等化,评价结果不能真实反映风险等级高的区段的情况;评价结果与管道2014~2016年现场检测数据对比,两者均显示P2分区中海底管道的风险等级较高,说明了该模型具有一定的合理性和实用性。  相似文献