Exploring future changes in smallholder farming systems by linking socio-economic scenarios with regional and household models     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

We explore how smallholder agricultural systems in the Kenyan highlands might intensify and/or diversify in the future under a range of socio-economic scenarios. Data from approximately 3000 households were analyzed and farming systems characterized. Plausible socio-economic scenarios of how Kenya might evolve, and their potential impacts on the agricultural sector, were developed with a range of stakeholders. We study how different types of farming systems might increase or diminish in importance under different scenarios using a land-use model sensitive to prices, opportunity cost of land and labour, and other variables. We then use a household model to determine the types of enterprises in which different types of households might engage under different socio-economic conditions. Trajectories of intensification, diversification, and stagnation for different farming systems are identified. Diversification with cash crops is found to be a key intensification strategy as farm size decreases and labour costs increase. Dairy expansion, while important for some trajectories, is mostly viable when land available is not a constraint, mainly due to the need for planting fodders at the expense of cropland areas. We discuss the results in relation to induced innovation theories of intensification. We outline how the methodology employed could be used for integrating global and regional change assessments with local-level studies on farming options, adaptation to global change, and upscaling of social, environmental and economic impacts of agricultural development investments and interventions.  相似文献   

IntCal13 calibrated ages of the Vedde and Saksunarvatn ashes and the Younger Dryas boundaries from Kråkenes,western Norway          下载免费PDF全文

ØYSTEIN S. LOHNE  JAN MANGERUD  HILARY H. BIRKS 《第四纪科学杂志》2014,29(5):506-507

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Measured and modelled above‐ and below‐canopy turbulent fluxes for a snow‐dominated mountain forest using GEOtop     

Andrew T. Fullhart  Thijs J. Kelleners  Heather N. Speckman  Daniel Beverly  Brent E. Ewers  John M. Frank  William J. Massman 《水文研究》2019,33(18):2464-2480

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Spatially distributed tracer‐aided modelling to explore water and isotope transport,storage and mixing in a pristine,humid tropical catchment          下载免费PDF全文

Joni Dehaspe  Christian Birkel  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Ricardo Sánchez‐Murillo  Ana María Durán‐Quesada  Chris Soulsby 《水文研究》2018,32(21):3206-3224

Rapidly transforming headwater catchments in the humid tropics provide important resources for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower, and ecosystem connectivity. However, such resources for downstream use remain unstudied. To improve understanding of the behaviour and influence of pristine rainforests on water and tracer fluxes, we adapted the relatively parsimonious, spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall–runoff (STARR) model using event‐based stable isotope data for the 3.2‐km² San Lorencito catchment in Costa Rica. STARR was used to simulate rainforest interception of water and stable isotopes, which showed a significant isotopic enrichment in throughfall compared with gross rainfall. Acceptable concurrent simulations of discharge (Kling–Gupta efficiency [KGE] ~0.8) and stable isotopes in stream water (KGE ~0.6) at high spatial (10 m) and temporal (hourly) resolution indicated a rapidly responding system. Around 90% of average annual streamflow (2,099 mm) was composed of quick, near‐surface runoff components, whereas only ~10% originated from groundwater in deeper layers. Simulated actual evapotranspiration (ET) from interception and soil storage were low (~420 mm/year) due to high relative humidity (average 96%) and cloud cover limiting radiation inputs. Modelling suggested a highly variable groundwater storage (~10 to 500 mm) in this steep, fractured volcanic catchment that sustains dry season baseflows. This groundwater is concentrated in riparian areas as an alluvial–colluvial aquifer connected to the stream. This was supported by rainfall–runoff isotope simulations, showing a “flashy” stream response to rainfall with only a moderate damping effect and a constant isotope signature from deeper groundwater (~400‐mm additional mixing volume) during baseflow. The work serves as a first attempt to apply a spatially distributed tracer‐aided model to a tropical rainforest environment exploring the hydrological functioning of a steep, fractured‐volcanic catchment. We also highlight limitations and propose a roadmap for future data collection and spatially distributed tracer‐aided model development in tropical headwater catchments.  相似文献   

High-P granulites of the Songshugou area (Qinling Orogen,east-central China): Petrography,phase relations,and U/Pb zircon geochronology     

Thomas Bader  Lifei Zhang  Xiaowei Li  Bin Xia  Leander Franz  Christian de Capitani  Qingyun Li 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2020,38(4):421-450

High-pressure (HP) granulites provide telling records of mineral reactions at upper mantle to lower crustal levels and key information on the fate of material in subduction systems. The latter especially applies when they abut eclogite and mantle dunite because such rock associations are crucial for understanding the incompletely known processes at the interface of converging plates. A continental arc, active c. 520–395 Ma ago, formed an enigmatic example of such a rock association in the Songshugou area, Qinling Orogen. To unravel the juxtaposition of the distinct rocks, this study combines petrography, phase equilibria modelling, conventional thermobarometry, and zircon U–Th–Pb–Ti–REE analysis. Two mafic HP granulites, which contain the mineral assemblages garnet–clinopyroxene–plagioclase–rutile–mesoperthite–quartz and garnet–clinopyroxene–plagioclase–rutile, experienced peak metamorphic conditions of ≤1.4 GPa, 860°C and ~1.3 GPa, ≥910°C, respectively. During decompression and cooling, at 489 ± 4 Ma, amphibole lamellae unmixed from a clinopyroxene solid solution and orthopyroxene in part replaced garnet. A felsic HP granulite shows equilibration of garnet, perthite, antiperthite, kyanite, quartz, and rutile at 810–860°C, ~1.2 GPa, sillimanite growth during decompression, and upper amphibolite facies cooling at 510 ± 4 Ma. Though the thermobarometric data are just within the methodological errors, the U/Pb zircon ages imply the HP granulites did not evolve coherently. The HP granulites either represent foundered lower arc crust or originated from subduction erosion because their geochemistry is indistinguishable from that of the hanging-wall plate. Published and new pressure–temperature–time–deformation paths converge at ~710°C, ~0.9 GPa, and ≲470 Ma, implying exhumation tectonics juxtaposed the HP granulites with a mélange of eclogite and mantle dunite at lower crustal levels. This study highlights that lower arc crust can comprise material of diverse evolution.  相似文献   

Application of semi‐distributed hydrological model for basin level water balance of the Ken basin of Central India          下载免费PDF全文

P. S. Murty  Ashish Pandey  Shakti Suryavanshi 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4119-4129

In the present study, a semi‐distributed hydrological model soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed for the Ken basin of Central India to predict the water balance. The entire basin was divided into ten sub basins comprising 107 hydrological response units on the basis of unique slope, soil and land cover classes using SWAT model. Sensitivity analysis of SWAT model was performed to examine the critical input variables of the study area. For Ken basin, curve number, available water capacity, soil depth, soil evaporation compensation factor and threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer (GWQ_MN) were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Yearly and monthly calibration (1985–1996) and validation (1997–2009) were performed using the observed discharge data of the Banda site in the Ken basin. Performance evaluation of the model was carried out using coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error‐observations standard deviation ratio, percent bias and index of agreement criterion. It was found that SWAT model can be successfully applied for hydrological evaluation of the Ken basin, India. The water balance analysis was carried out to evaluate water balance of the Ken basin for 25 years (1985–2009). The water balance exhibited that the average annual rainfall in the Ken basin is about 1132 mm. In this, about 23% flows out as surface run‐off, 4% as groundwater flow and about 73% as evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

中国城乡居民幸福感的差异及影响因素研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

顾楚丹  王丰龙  罗峰 《世界地理研究》2021,30(1):179-191

2010年上海世界博览会提出“城市让生活更美好”。然而,当前对城乡居民幸福感的实证研究得出了不同的结论。本研究认为,城市并不必然会带来更美好的生活,而是更好的城市让生活更幸福。为此,本研究运用多层次线性回归模型,基于2014年中国劳动力动态调查（CLDS）数据对中国城乡居民的幸福感及其影响因素进行了分析。结果显示,中国城市居民的幸福感整体上高于乡村居民,这种差异主要源于城乡居民的生活水平、生活环境和生活节奏等方面的差异。因此,要实现“城市让生活更美好”的目标,需要在城市化的过程中不断提升城乡居民的获得感、推动城市住房政策改革、进一步加快城乡公共服务一体化进程、实现以家庭为单位的新型市民化模式以及推行更为健全的劳动政策。  相似文献   

新疆大草湖地区水系沉积物测量地球化学特征及找矿方向          下载免费PDF全文

康鹏宇  冯爱平  刘传朋  刘同 《山东国土资源》2020,36(4)

在1∶5万水系沉积物测量的基础上,分析了大草湖地区钼钒磷金铜等元素的地球化学特征。通过对成矿元素的分布特征及相关性分析、因子分析,认为寻钼钒磷金铜矿床潜力较大;根据异常特征及成矿地质条件,在早寒武世西大山组和晚泥盆世破城子组地层背景下,寻找与早寒武世西大山组地层相关的钼钒磷层控沉积型和与晚泥盆世破城子组相关火山岩型金铜矿床潜力较大,进而划分出3个成矿远景区,即乔龙库图克南钼、磷、钒、银、锌、铁、铜成矿远景区、大草湖南钼、磷、铅成矿远景区、铜矿山金、铜、钨多金属成矿远景区。  相似文献   

Hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling for flood damage mitigation in Brahmani–Baitarani River Basin,India     

Sindhu K. 《国际地球制图》2017,32(9):1004-1016

Stream flow forecast and its inundation simulations prior to the event are an effective and non-structural method of flood damage mitigation. In this paper, a continuous simulation hydrological and hydrodynamic model was developed for stream flow forecast and for spatial inundation simulation in Brahmani–Baitarani river basin, India. The hydrologic modelling approach includes rainfall-run-off modelling, flow routing, calibration and validation of the model with the field discharge data. CARTOSAT Digital Elevation Model of 30 m resolution, land use/land cover derived from the Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS-P6) AWiFS and soil textural data of the study area were used in the modelling to compute topographic and hydraulic parameters. The hydrological model was calibrated with the help of field observed discharge data of 2006 and 2009 and validated with the data of 2008 and 2011. From the results, it is found that computed discharges are very well matching well with the observed discharges. The developed model can provide the stream flow forecast with more than 30 h lead time. Possible flood inundations were simulated using hydrodynamic modelling approach. CARTO Digital Elevation Model of 10 m resolution, landuse and the computed flood hydrographs were used in inundation simulations.  相似文献   

Measuring the effect of an ongoing urbanization process on biodiversity conservation suitability index: integrating scenario-based urban growth modelling with Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS)     

Mehdi Sheikh Goodarzi  Yousef Sakieh  Shabnam Navardi 《国际地球制图》2017,32(8):834-852

The present study adopts an integrative modelling methodology, which combines the strengths of the SLEUTH model and the Conservation Assessment and Prioritization System (CAPS) method. By developing a scenario-based geographic information system simulation environment for Hashtpar City, Iran, the manageability of the landscape under each urban growth scenario is analysed. In addition, the CAPS approach was used for biodiversity conservation suitability mapping. The SLEUTH model was implemented to generate predictive urban layers of the years 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 for each scenario (dynamic factors for conservation suitability mapping). Accordingly, conservation suitability surface of the area is updated for each time point and under each urban development storyline. Two-way analysis of variance and Duncan’s new multiple range tests were employed to compare the functionality of the three scenarios. Based on results, the managed urban growth scenario depicted better results for manageability of the landscape and less negative impact on conservation suitability values.  相似文献