We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.
We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.
The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.
ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with Mw > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with Mw up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.
Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates. 相似文献
An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region. 相似文献
The control of polluted surface runoff and the assessment of possible impacts on groundwater is a concern at the local and
regional scale. On this background, a study investigates possible impacts of organic and inorganic pollutants (including bacteria)
originating from a permeable asphalt parking lot on the water quality immediately beneath it. The functioning of the permeable
pavement, including clogging and restricted vertical percolation, was also evaluated. Four nested sample ports (shallow and
deep) were installed below low- and high-traffic areas, including one port outside the parking lot. At least initially there
was a good hydraulic connection between the parking surface and the shallow sample ports. The presence of a geotextile layer
at the base of the parking lot structure, however, was identified in lab tests as one factor restricting vertical percolation
to the deeper ports. Clogging of the permeable surface was most pronounced in heavy traffic areas and below snow pile storage
areas. Corroborated by high electric conductivity and chloride measurements, sand brought in by cars during winter was the
principal cause for clogging. No bacteria or BOD were found in percolating water. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) were
present at concentrations near minimum detection limit. Nutrients (nitrate and phosphate) were being leached into the ground
via the permeable parking lot surface at annual flux rates of 0.45–0.84 g/m2/year. A multi-species tracer test demonstrated a retention capacity of the permeable parking lot structure of >90% for metals
and 27% for nutrients, respectively. 相似文献
This work deals with disposal of slurries generated during the cutting and polishing processes of slabs of decorative sedimentary
carbonate rocks in the north western Sicily. At present, they are used as fillers of dismantled quarries near the sawmills
and, as a final step of reclamation, are covered with earth layers. In spite of such inexpensive solution, there is lack of
knowledge about the composition of the waste. In order to assess if there is any threat for the environment and to suggest
indications for alternative solutions, such as recycling or inactivation processes, the slurries were analysed by XR diffraction,
simultaneous thermal analysis, ICP/MS, ionic chromatography, FTIR, UV-Vis, COD and TOC measurements, grain size analysis.
Results indicate that the slurries can threaten the groundwater, because of the high chemical oxygen demand; furthermore they
can modify the mechanism of groundwater recharge, because of their grain size distribution. Some laboratory tests show that,
even in very aggressive conditions, the solid pollutants persist in the waste and slowly release into water the products of
their degradation. The slurry therefore should be subjected to inactivation treatment before disposal or, alternatively, recycled
as secondary raw material for a suitable process. 相似文献
The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.
Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making. 相似文献
