三峡工程建设背景下的洞庭湖区治水方略探讨   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

贺清云  朱翔 《地理研究》2003,22(2):160-168

在长江三峡工程建设的大背景下,本文分析了洞庭湖区的水灾减灾机制,探讨了洞庭湖区的治水方略,提出应充分发挥三峡水库的调蓄功能,协调江湖关系,改善冲淤关系,加强水利工程建设,实现三峡水库与湖南四水水库的优化调度  相似文献   

长沙市防洪建设中若干重要问题探讨     

毛德华  夏军  龚重惠 《地理研究》2003,22(6):716-724

探讨了全国重点防洪城市长沙市防洪建设中的若干重要问题:防洪标准、设计洪水位、防洪大堤高度等的确定;建设方针与程序、整体防洪能力建设、防洪建设与基础设施建设和景观建设协调发展等。长沙设计洪水位的确定应综合考虑以下几个方面:湘江长沙段洪水与其支流和东洞庭湖洪水不存在高标准洪水同期遭遇问题,更不存在同频率洪水遭遇问题;湘江洪水流量与水位关系不是长沙洪水设计的主要依据;而南洞庭湖洪水位顶托和河道槽蓄量减少是影响长沙洪水位高低的动、静态因素。目前,长沙城市堤防设防高度偏高,减少了大堤的稳定性,造成了无效投资,影响了城市景观。防洪工程建设应分期实施、先除险后加固、注重整体防洪能力的提高,并处理好与城市基础设施建设和景观建设的关系。  相似文献   

Identification of flood seasonality and drivers across Canada     

Jitendra Singh  Subimal Ghosh  Slobodan P. Simonovic  Subhankar Karmakar 《水文研究》2021,35(10):e14398

Floods are the most frequently occurring natural hazard in Canada. An in-depth understanding of flood seasonality and its drivers at a national scale is essential. Here, a circular, statistics-based approach is implemented to understand the seasonality of annual-maximum floods (streamflow) and to identify their responsible drivers across Canada. Nearly 80% and 70% of flood events were found to occur during spring and summer in eastern and western watersheds across Canada, respectively. Flooding in the eastern and western watersheds was primarily driven by snowmelt and extreme precipitation, respectively. This observation suggests that increases in temperature have led to early spring snowmelt-induced floods throughout eastern Canada. Our results indicate that precipitation (snowmelt) variability can exert large controls on the magnitude of flood peaks in western (eastern) watersheds in Canada. Further, the nonstationarity of flood peaks is modelled to account for impact of the dynamic behaviour of the identified flood drivers on extreme-flood magnitude by using a cluster of 74 generalized additive models for location scale and shape models, which can capture both the linear and nonlinear characteristics of flood-peak changes and can model its dependence on external covariates. Using nonstationary frequency analysis, we find that increasing precipitation and snowmelt magnitudes directly resulted in a significant increase in 50-year streamflow. Our results highlight an east–west asymmetry in flood seasonality, indicating the existence of a climate signal in flood observations. The understating of flood seasonality and flood responses under the dynamic characteristics of precipitation and snowmelt extremes may facilitate the predictability of such events, which can aid in predicting and managing their impacts.  相似文献   

Validation of the Flood‐PROOFS probabilistic forecasting system          下载免费PDF全文

P. Laiolo  S. Gabellani  N. Rebora  R. Rudari  L. Ferraris  S. Ratto  H. Stevenin  M. Cauduro 《水文研究》2014,28(9):3466-3481

Probabilistic hydrometeorological forecasting systems are becoming more and more an operational tool used by civil protection centres for issuing flood alerts. One of the most important requests of decision makers is related to the reliability of such systems and to the validation of their predictive performances. For these reasons, this work is devoted to the validation of a probabilistic flood forecasting system called Flood‐PRObabilistic Operational Forecasting System (Flood‐PROOFS). The system is operational in real time, since 2008, in Valle d'Aosta, an alpine Region of northern Italy. It is used by the Civil Protection regional service to issue warnings and by the local water company to protect its facilities. The system manages and uses both real‐time meteorological and satellite data and real‐time data on the operation of the control structures in dam and river, managed by the water company. It has proven a useful tool for flood forecasting and for managing complex situations, facilitating the dialogue between civil protection and the water company during crisis periods. The system uses both a limited area model forecast and a forecast issued by regional expert meteorologists. The main outputs are deterministic and probabilistic discharge forecasts in different outlet areas of the river network. The performance of the system has been evaluated on a 25 months period with different statistical methods such as Brier score and Rank histograms. The results highlight good performances of the system as support system for emitting warnings, but there is a lack of statistics especially for huge discharge events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A stochastic framework to assess the performance of flood warning systems based on rainfall‐runoff modeling          下载免费PDF全文

J. Yazdi  S. A. A. Salehi Neyshabouri  S. Golian 《水文研究》2014,28(17):4718-4731

Nowadays, Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems (FFWSs) are known as the most inexpensive and efficient non‐structural measures for flood damage mitigation in the world. Benefit to cost of the FFWSs has been reported to be several times of other flood mitigation measures. Beside these advantages, uncertainty in flood predictions is a subject that may affect FFWS's reliability and the benefits of these systems. Determining the reliability of advanced flood warning systems based on the rainfall–runoff models is a challenge in assessment of the FFWS performance which is the subject of this study. In this paper, a stochastic methodology is proposed to provide the uncertainty band of the rainfall–runoff model and to calculate the probability of acceptable forecasts. The proposed method is based on Monte Carlo simulation and multivariate analysis of the predicted time and discharge error data sets. For this purpose, after the calibration of the rainfall–runoff model, the probability distributions of input calibration parameters and uncertainty band of the model are estimated through the Bayesian inference. Then, data sets of the time and discharge errors are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation, and the probability of acceptable model forecasts is calculated by multivariate analysis of data using copula functions. The proposed approach was applied for a small watershed in Iran as a case study. The results showed using rainfall–runoff modeling based on real‐time precipitation is not enough to attain high performance for FFWSs in small watersheds, and it seems using weather forecasts as the inputs of rainfall–runoff models is essential to increase lead times and the reliability of FFWSs in small watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fluvial transport of suspended sediment and organic carbon during flood events in a large agricultural catchment in southwest France     

Chantha Oeurng  Sabine Sauvage  Alexandra Coynel  Eric Maneux  Henri Etcheber  José‐Miguel Sánchez‐Pérez 《水文研究》2011,25(15):2365-2378

Water draining from a large agricultural catchment of 1 110 km² in southwest France was sampled over an 18‐month period to determine the temporal variability in suspended sediment (SS) and dissolved (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) transport during flood events, with quantification of fluxes and controlling factors, and to analyze the relationships between discharge and SS, DOC and POC. A total of 15 flood events were analyzed, providing extensive data on SS, POC and DOC during floods. There was high variability in SS, POC and DOC transport during different seasonal floods, with SS varying by event from 513 to 41 750 t; POC from 12 to 748 t and DOC from 9 to 218 t. Overall, 76 and 62% of total fluxes of POC and DOC occurred within 22% of the study period. POC and DOC export from the Save catchment amounted to 3090 t and 1240 t, equivalent to 1·8 t km^?2 y^?1 and 0·7 t km^?2 y^?1, respectively. Statistical analyses showed that total precipitation, flood discharge and total water yield were the major factors controlling SS, POC and DOC transport from the catchment. The relationships between SS, POC and DOC and discharge over temporal flood events resulted in different hysteresis patterns, which were used to deduce dissolved and particulate origins. In both clockwise and anticlockwise hysteresis, POC mainly followed the same patterns as discharge and SS. The DOC‐discharge relationship was mainly characterized by alternating clockwise and anticlockwise hysteresis due to dilution effects of water originating from different sources in the whole catchment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Confidence interval of real‐time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM‐RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy)          下载免费PDF全文

Silvia Barbetta  Tommaso Moramarco  Luca Brocca  Marco Franchini  Florisa Melone 《水文研究》2014,28(3):729-743

This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution q_for between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution q_for which, in turn, is set up by associating to each q_for the q_opt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the q_for values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the q_opt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for q_for is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of q_for made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Identification of changes in floods and flood regimes in Canada using a peaks over threshold approach          下载免费PDF全文

Donald H. Burn  Paul H. Whitfield  Mohammed Sharif 《水文研究》2016,30(18):3303-3314

Recent flood events in Canada have led to speculation that changes in flood behaviour are occurring; these changes have often been attributed to climate change. This paper examines flood data for a collection of 132 gauging stations in Canada. All of these watersheds are part of the Canadian Reference Hydrometric Basin Network (RHBN), a group of gauging stations specifically assembled to assist in the identification of the impacts of climate change. The RHBN stations are considered to have good quality data and were screened to avoid the influences of regulation, diversions, or land use change. Daily flow data for each watershed are used to derive a peaks over threshold (POT) dataset. Several measures of flood behaviour are examined based on the POT data, which afford a more in‐depth analysis of flood behaviour than can be obtained using annual maxima data. Analysis is conducted for four time periods ranging from 50 to 80 years in duration; the latter period results in a much smaller number of watersheds that have data for the period. The changes in flood responses of the watersheds are summarized by grouping the watersheds by size (small, medium, and large) and also by hydrologic regime (nival, mixed, and pluvial). The results provide important insights into the nature of the changes that are occurring in flood regimes of Canadian rivers, which include more flood exceedances, reduced maximum flood exceedance magnitudes for snowmelt events, and earlier flood events. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Solute dynamics across the stream‐to‐riparian continuum under different flood waves     

Dongsheng Liu  Jian Zhao  Woo‐Hyun Jeon  Jin‐Yong Lee 《水文研究》2019,33(20):2627-2641

To enhance the understanding of solute dynamics within the stream‐to‐riparian continuum during flood event‐driven water fluctuation (i.e., flood wave), a variable saturated groundwater flow and solute transport model were developed and calibrated against in situ measurements of the Inbuk stream, Korea, where seasonal flooding prevails. The solute dynamics were further investigated for flood waves (varying by amplitude [A], duration [T], roundness [r], and skewness [t_p]) that were parameterised by real‐time stream stage fluctuations. We found that the solute transferred faster and farther in the riparian zone, especially within the phreatic zone, above which in the variable saturated zone the concentration required a significantly longer time, particularly at higher altitudes, to return to the initial state. By comparison, solute transferred shallowly in the streambed where the solute plume exhibited an exponential growth trend from the centre to the bank. The dynamic changes of solute flux and mass along the stream–aquifer interface and stream concentration were linked to the shape of flood wave. As the flood wave became higher (A↗), wider (T↗), rounder (r↘), and less skewed (t_p↗), the maximum solute storage in aquifer increased. Maximum stream concentration (C_str?max) not only presented a positive linear relationship with A or t_p but also showed a negative logarithmic trend with increasing T or r. The sensitivity of C_{str_max} to A was approximately two times that of t_p, and between these values, the r was slightly more sensitive than T. C_str?max linearly increased as hydraulic conductivity increased and logarithmically increased as longitudinal dispersivity increased. The former relationship was more sensitive than the latter.  相似文献   

Assessment of regional estimation error by canonical residual kriging     

M. Kamali Nezhad  T. B. M. J. Ouarda  K. Chokmani  M. Barbet  P. Bruneau  S. El. Adlouni 《水文研究》2011,25(9):1418-1430

Various regional flood frequency analysis procedures are used in hydrology to estimate hydrological variables at ungauged or partially gauged sites. Relatively few studies have been conducted to evaluate the accuracy of these procedures and estimate the error induced in regional flood frequency estimation models. The objective of this paper is to assess the overall error induced in the residual kriging (RK) regional flood frequency estimation model. The two main error sources in specific flood quantile estimation using RK are the error induced in the quantiles local estimation procedure and the error resulting from the regional quantile estimation process. Therefore, for an overall error assessment, the corresponding errors associated with these two steps must be quantified. Results show that the main source of error in RK is the error induced into the regional quantile estimation method. Results also indicate that the accuracy of the regional estimates increases with decreasing return periods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献