A 200-year precipitation index for the central English Lake District / Un indice de précipitation de 200 ans pour la Région des Lacs en Angleterre     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Abstract The geographical context and hydroclimatology of the English Lake District means that the region is an important monitor of changes to nationally significant environmental assets. Using monthly rainfall series for sites in and around the central Lake District, a continuous ~200-year precipitation index was constructed for a representative station close to Grasmere. The bridged series shows a significant decline in summer rainfall since the 1960s, offset by increases in winter and spring that are strongly linked to North Atlantic forcing. Over longer time periods, the index exhibits several notable dry (1850s, 1880s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s) and wet (1820s, 1870s, 1920s, 1940s, 1990s) decades. These patterns are strongly reflected by reservoir inflow series and by indicators of the biological status of the region’s freshwater lakes. It is argued that long-term climate indices will become increasingly important as managers seek to evaluate recent and project environmental changes within the context of long-term natural variability.  相似文献   

The connection of geodynamics with seismicity patterns     

Adrian E. Scheidegger 《Natural Hazards》1988,1(1):5-13

When a study is to be made of seismic risks, the present-day geodynamic conditions are of fundamental importance: Earthquakes do not happen by themselves, they do have a cause. The cause of earthquakes is that the tectonic stresses exceed a critical limit. The build-up of these stresses is conditioned by the geodynamic processes occurring in the region in question. A knowledge of the geodynamics characteristic of a region is therefore fundamental for seismic risk studies. The general methodology for making such a geodynamic study is based on the entire set of manifestations of the plate-tectonic conditions of that region: these include the mechanism of earthquakes, the stresses observed in mines, the orientation of surface joints and even the direction of river valleys. Examples of geodynamic studies and their bearing on seismic risks are shown from various areas of the world, notably from China, India, and Colombia.  相似文献   

Observations of mine seismicity in the eastern Wasatch Plateau,Utah, U.S.A.: A possible case of implosional failure     

Ivan G. Wong  James R. Humphrey  Janet A. Adams  Walter J. Silva 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,129(3-4):369-405

In the summer of 1984, a three-dimensional, high-resolution microearthquake network was operated in the vicinity of two coal mines beneath Gentry Mountain in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. During a six-week period, approximately 3,000 seismic events were observed of which the majority were impulsive, higher frequency (>10 Hz), short duration (<2–3 sec) events probably associated with the caving of the roof from a longwall operation. In contrast, 234 of the largest located events appeared to occur predominantlybeneath the mines to a depth of 2 to 3 km consistent with previous studies. The magnitudes of these events ranged from less thanM _c 0 to 1.6. In addition to the unusual depths of these latter events, an anomalous aspect displayed by the events was an apparent dilatational focal mechanism suggesting a non-double-couple, possibly implosional source. Implosional events have been observed in other studies of mine seismicity; however, the generally inadequate instrumental coverage of the focal sphere has cast some doubt on the validity of such mechanisms. Previously suggested source mechanisms for such implosional events have included tensional failure through strata collapse, and a shear-implosional displacement mechanism. Shear failure must be involved in the failure process of the Gentry Mountain implosional events as evidenced by well-defined shear waves in the observed seismograms. Simultaneous monitoring in the East Mountain coal mining area to the south by the University of Utah revealed typical shear failure events mixed with implosional events. The observed double-couple, reverse focal mechanisms at East Mountain were similar to mechanisms determined in previous studies and a composite focal mechanism determined in this study for a sequence outside the mining areas. This suggested that the shear events within the mining areas are being influenced by the regional tectonic stress field. Thus in addition to the seismic events associated with caving of the roof from the longwall operation, there appear to be at least two other types of mining-induced seismic events occurring in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, both submine in origin: (1) events characterized by apparent non-double-couple possibly implosional focal mechanisms and well-defined shear waves; and (2) shear events, which are indistinguishable from tectonic earthquakes and may be considered mining triggered earthquakes. The small mining-induced stress changes that occur beyond a few hundred meters from the mine workings suggest both types of seismic events are occurring on critically stressed, pre-existing zones of weakness. Topography, overburden, method of mining, and mine configuration also appear to be significant factors influencing the occurrence of the implosional submine events.  相似文献   

Subduction and back-arc activity at the Hikurangi convergent Margin,New Zealand     

Euan G. C. Smith  Tim Stern  Martin Reyners 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,129(1-2):203-231

The Hikurangi Margin is a region of oblique subduction with northwest-dipping intermediate depth seismicity extending southwest from the Kermadec system to about 42°S. The current episode of subduction is at least 16–20 Ma old. The plate convergence rate varies along the margin from about 60 mm/a at the south end of the Kermadec Trench to about 45 mm/a at 42°S. The age of the Pacific lithosphere adjacent to the Hikurangi Trench is not known.The margin divides at about latitude 39°S into two quite dissimilar parts. The northern part has experienced andesitic volcanism for about 18 Ma, and back-arc extension in the last 4 Ma that has produced a back-arc basin onshore with high heaflow, thin crust and low upper-mantle seismic velocities. The extension appears to have arisen from a seawards migration of the Hikurangi Trench north of 39°S. Here the plate interface is thought to be currently uncoupled, as geodetic data indicate extension of the fore-arc basin, and historic earthquakes have not exceededM _s=7.South of 39°S there is no volcanism and a back-arc basin has been produced by downward flexure of the lithosphere due to strong coupling with the subducting plate. Heatflow in the basin is normal. Evidence for strong coupling comes from historic earthquakes of up to aboutM _s=8 and high rates of uplift on the southeast coast of the North Island.The reason for this division of the margin is not known but may be related to an inferred increase, from northeast to southwest, in the buoyancy of the Pacific lithosphere.  相似文献   

Microseismicity in a flooded potash mine,the Hope mine,Federal Republic of Germany     

C. Heick  D. Flach 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,129(3-4):475-496

Measuring of microseismic events has been carried out at the former potash mine of Hope since early 1984.Analysis of the data demonstrates an immediate temporal relationship between brine introduction and onset of microseismic activity. The spatial distribution of the sources indicates a dependence on brine level height. Sources are found preferentially immediately next to roads and workings. Source radii, estimated from the frequency ranges in the seismograms, varied with the cross-section of neighbouring cavities and had a similar, order of size.Events occurred rarely in the previously flooded mine sections Similarly, the zone below a depth of approx. 600 m below sea level was virtually inactive.  相似文献   

On self-similarity of premonitory patterns in the regions of natural and induced seismicity     

V. G. Kossobokov  B. K. Rastogi  V. K. Gaur 《Journal of Earth System Science》1989,98(4):309-318

Anticipating the scale invariance of rock fracturing processes, we applied Keilis-Borok’s algorithm M8, originally designed for identifying times of increased probability (TIPS) of occurrence of strong earthquakes (M < 8.0), retrospectively to Koyna earthquakes which occurred in the region after the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar reservoir in 1962. The algorithm which enables diagnosis of TIPS from the 7th year onwards after the commencement of the earliest available data set showed that the 5.3 magnitude earthquake of 20 September 1980 indeed occurred within a time of increased probability. This result, apart from its potential application to recognizing future TIPS in the region, points to selfsimilarity between the premonitory patterns of natural and induced earthquakes and to scale-invariant nature of their processes. Further, a typical precursory rise in seismicity followed by a relative quiescence was also found to precede all the three larger earthquakes of the sequence.  相似文献   

Statistical methods for investigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity patterns     

Mark V. Matthews  Paul A. Reasenberg 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,126(2-4):357-372

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一种可考虑历史洪水的马氏权函数法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

陈元芳 《水科学进展》1994,5(3):174-178

导出了非连序样本下,马氏权函数法(适用于P-Ⅲ型分布)参数估计公式.在不偏性、有效性的标准下,统计试验结果表明,推导的非连序样本下的计算公式是较为有效的,且拓宽了马氏权函数法的使用范围.  相似文献   

内蒙古呼盟地区地震活动的基本特征     

徐建德  杨毅  张建中 《东北地震研究》1993,(1)

通过对内蒙古呼盟地区地震活动的研究,认为呼盟地区震中分布较稳定;存在20年左右地震活动周期;震源机制两节面分布相对比较稳定,P、T轴近水平向;地震破裂是以水平滑动为主。将来呼盟地区的地震活动主体地区为博克图、满洲里一带,震级为5级左右。  相似文献   

辽宁及其邻区1900—1949年M≥5级地震参数研究     

蒋秀琴  王亚会 《东北地震研究》1993,(3)

我们搜集了国际国内地震台网资料、宏观考察资料、地震专题研究报告,对1900—1949年5级以上地震全部进行了核查,重新进行定位处理,并结合宏观考察资料和前人工作成果进行分析研究,得到较为准确的震中位置。通过这项研究,增补了原目录中遗漏的地震,并对目录中的错误进行了修正,从而得到一份较为完整可靠的地震目录。  相似文献