Statistical downscaling of summer temperature extremes in northern China     

范丽军  符淙斌  严中伟 《大气科学进展》2013,30(4):1085-1095

Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downscale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross-validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downscaling to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011-35 relative to 1980-99.  相似文献   

FR－Ⅰ和FR－Ⅱ型射电源的关系—谱特征     

张有宏  谢光中  刘江 《天文研究与技术》1995,(1)

本文比较了两类射电源ＦＲ－Ⅰ和ＦＲ－Ⅱ型的射电－光学—Ｘ－ｒａｙ的谱特征。ＦＲ－Ⅰ射电源的射电－光学谱比ＦＲ－Ⅱ射电源平得多（△αｒｏ≈０．１９）；但对于光学－Ｘ－ｒａｙ和射电－Ｘ－ｒａｙ谱，ＦＲ－Ⅰ却比ＦＲ－Ⅱ陡得多（△αｏｘ≈０．４０；△αｒｘ≈０．１０）。初步结果表明，ＦＲ－Ⅱ（Ｇ）可能是ＦＲ－Ⅱ（Ｑ）向ＦＲ－Ⅰ过渡的中间状态。  相似文献   

太阳活动预报中的模糊识别综合指数     

张勤 《中国天文和天体物理学报》1990,(1)

在太阳活动预报中,预报因子的选取和处理对预报效果影响甚大。本文在云台原有的平均综合指数基础上,运用模糊识别方法,给出了一种模糊识别综合指数,它能更好地表征太阳日面活动区的活动特征。这种方法简单、方便,较充分地利用了预报因子中所含有的有用信息,从而使识别预报率有所提高。  相似文献   

The erodibility of some Nigerian soils: A comparison of rainfall simulator results with estimates obtained from the Wischmeier nomogram     

A. Vanelslande  R. Lal  D. Gabriels 《水文研究》1987,1(3):255-265

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Nouvelles données sur le téphra de Sarliève et le téphra CF7, marqueurs chrono-stratigraphiques de Grande Limagne (Massif central,France)     

Didier Miallier  Serge Sanzelle  Thierry Pilleyre  Gérard Vernet  Sarah Brugière  Tohru Danhara 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2004,336(1):1-8

A trachytic tephra, discovered in the ancient lake of Sarliève, ‘Grande Limagne’, has been dated using the thermoluminescence technique. The obtained age, 16±4 ka ($\text{2}\text{σ}$), is older than that of the trachytic volcanoes of the Cha??ne des Puys, the ashes of which have already been locally recognised in the region. Its analysis confirms its originality. In the course of the comparisons made to search for its spring, it appears that the wide-dispersion tephra CF7, beforehand correlated by hypothesis to the Puy de Clierzou, probably originates from the Kilian crater or the Puy de Vasset. To cite this article: D. Miallier et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).  相似文献   

苏州下垫面格局演变及其局地热环境效应   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

祝善友  张桂欣  刘莹 《地理科学》2012,(7):859-865

以苏州为研究区域,选择1986年Landsat TM、2006年Landsat ETM+遥感图像为主要数据源,分别提取下垫面类型和地表温度,研究景观格局指数的粒度效应,并在适宜粒度下分析景观格局的演变特征,进而研究其与热环境变化之间的关系。结果表明,研究区20多年来景观破碎化程度、斑块形状复杂程度与景观多样性变大,而聚集程度变低,热场变异指数增大区域的景观格局指数变化更为明显,这说明下垫面格局演变对热环境变化具有一定的影响作用。  相似文献   

基于统计降尺度模型的江淮流域极端气候的模拟与预估   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈威霖  江志红  黄强 《南京气象学院学报》2012,(5):578-590

利用江淮流域29个代表站点1961--2000年逐日最高温度、最低温度和逐日降水资料,以及NCEP逐日大尺度环流场资料,引入基于多元线性回归与随机天气发生器相结合的统计降尺度模型SDSM（statistical downscalingmodel）,通过对每个站点建模,确立SDSM参数,并将该模型应用于SRESA2排放情景下HadCM3和cGcM3模式,得到了江淮流域各代表台站21世纪的逐日最高、最低温度和降水序列以及热浪、霜冻、强降水等极端气候指数。结果表明,当前气候下,统计降尺度方法模拟的极端温度指数与观测值有很好的一致性,能有效纠正耦合模式的“冷偏差”,如SDSM对江淮平均的冬季最高、最低温度的模拟偏差较CGCM3模式分别减少3℃和4．5℃。对于极端降水则能显著纠正耦合模式模拟的降水强度偏低的问题,如CGCM3对江淮流域夏季降水强度的模拟偏差为-60．6％,但降尺度后SDSM—CGCM3的偏差仅为-6％,说明降尺度模型SDSM的确有“增加值”的作用。21世纪末期在未来SRESA2情景下,对于极端温度,无论Had．CM3还是CGCM3模式驱动统计模型,江淮流域所有代表台站,各个季节的最高、最低温度都显著增加,且以夏季最为显著,增幅在2—4℃;与之相应霜冻天数将大幅减少,热浪天数大幅增多,各站点冬季霜冻天数减少幅度为5—25d,夏季热浪天数增加幅度为4～14d;对于极端降水指数,在两个不同耦合模式HadCM3和CGCM3驱动下的变化尤其是变化幅度的一致性比温度差,但大部分站点各个季节极端强降水事件将增多,强度增强,SDSM—HadCM3和SDSM-CGCM3预估的夏季极端降水贡献率将分别增加26％和27％。  相似文献   

珠三角地区前汛期强对流潜势预报方法研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

庞古乾  伍志方  叶爱芬  刘运策  李怀宇  孙广凤 《热带气象学报》2012,28(4):564-568

利用2004—2006年前汛期探空资料计算的物理量,选取与强对流天气相关性好的大气温湿类(整层比湿积分IntegralQ)、层结稳定度类(K指数)、动力类(潜在下冲气流指数MDPI)、热力动力综合类(瑞士第一雷暴指数SWISS00)作为预报因子,通过对各指数的空间分布特征和数值进行二值Logistic回归分析,得到各指数的参数估算值,建立强对流诊断预报方程,得到前汛期强对流潜势预报因子P,从而制作珠江三角洲(以下简称珠三角)地区未来12小时出现强对流天气的潜势预报。并用此法回报2003—2006年3—6月前汛期的强对流天气。结果表明,P值大于0.9的准确率可达77.5%,P值小于0.5出现强天气的概率仅为3.8%。由于资料有限,对2007年3—4月发生的7次强对流的经验检验效果不明显,但P值小于0.5时不发生强对流的经验检验效果明显。此法对珠三角地区的短时强降水和雷雨大风等强对流天气的临近监测预警有较好的指示意义。  相似文献   

Comparison of Daily Extreme Temperatures over Eastern China and South Korea between 1996-2005   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

LI Hongmei  ZHOU Tianjun  Jae-Cheol NAM 《大气科学进展》2009,26(2)

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Dynamical Tropopause Variability and Potential Vorticity Streamers in the Northern Hemisphere —— A Climatological Analysis     

Olivia MARTIUS  Cornelia SCHWIERZ  Michael SPRENGER 《大气科学进展》2008,25(3):367-380

This study presents a 44-year climatology of potential vorticity （PV） streamers in the Northern Hemisphere based upon analyses of the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. A comparison to an existing 15-year climatology yields very good agreement in the locations of PV streamer frequency maxima, but some differences are found in the amplitude of frequencies. The climatology is assessed with the focus on links between PV streamer frequencies and the synoptic- and planetary-scale variability of the dynamical tropopause.
A comprehensive overview is provided on where （zonally） and when （seasonally） short-term variability throughout the extra-tropical and sub-tropical tropopause is enhanced or reduced. Several key processes that influence this variability are discussed. Baroclinic processes, for example, determine the variability in the storm-track areas in winter, whereas the Asian summer monsoon significantly influences the variability over Asia.
The paper also describes links between the frequency of PV streamers in the extra-tropical and subtropical tropopause and three major northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns. The observed changes in the PV streamer frequencies are closely related to concomitant variations of PV and its gradient within the tropopause region. During opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation the location of the streamer frequency maxima shifts significantly in the Atlantic and European region in both the extra-tropics and subtropics. The influence of ENSO on the streamer frequencies is most pronounced in the subtropical Pacific.  相似文献