Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy     

Diego Silva Herran  Shinichiro Fujimori  Mikiko Kainuma 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1117-1131

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

  相似文献   

Holocene river and slope activity in the Visoko Basin,Bosnia‐Herzegovina – climate and land‐use effects     

S. DREIBRODT  C. LUBOS  R. HOFMANN  N. MÜLLER‐SCHEEßEL  I. RICHLING  O. NELLE  M. FUCHS  K. RASSMANN  Z. KUJUNDŽIĆ‐VEJZAGIĆ  H.‐R. BORK  J. MÜLLER 《第四纪科学杂志》2013,28(6):559-570

  相似文献   

Matt Wilson structure: record of an impact event of possible Early Mesoproterozoic age,Northern Territory     

I. P. Sweet  P. W. Haines  K. Mitchell 《Australian Journal of Earth Sciences》2013,60(4-5):675-688

The Matt Wilson structure is a circular 5.5 km-diameter structure in Early Mesoproterozoic or Neoproterozoic rocks of the Victoria Basin, Northern Territory. It lies in regionally horizontal to gently dipping Wondoan Hill and Stubb Formations (Tijunna Group) and Jasper Gorge Sandstone (Auvergne Group). An outer circumferential syncline with dips of 5?–?40° in the limbs surrounds an intermediate zone with faulted sandstone displaying horizontal to low dips, and a central steeply dipping zone about 1.5 km across. Several thrust faults in the outer syncline appear to indicate outward-directed forces. The central zone, marked by steeply dipping to overturned Tijunna Group and possibly Bullita Group sandstone and mudstone, indicates uplift of at least 300 m. The rocks are intensely fractured with some brecciation, and contain numerous planar to subtly undulating surfaces displaying striae which resemble shatter cleavage. Thin-sections of sandstone from the central area show zones of intense microbrecciation and irregular and planar fractures in quartz, but no melt-rocks have been identified. The planar fractures occur in multiple intersecting parallel sets typical of relatively low-level (5?–?10 GPa) shock-pressure effects. Alternative mechanisms, i.e. igneous intrusion, carbonate collapse, diapirism and regional deformation processes, have been discounted. The circular nature, central uplift, faulting, shatter features and planar fractures are all consistent with an impact origin. The Matt Wilson structure is most likely a deeply eroded impact structure in which the more highly shocked rocks of the original crater floor have been removed by erosion. Estimates of the age of the Auvergne and Tijunna Groups range from Early Mesoproterozoic (which we favour) to Late Neoproterozoic. Early Cambrian Antrim Plateau Volcanics near the impact structure show no signs of impact effects, allowing the age of impact to be constrained between Early Mesoproterozoic and Early Cambrian. The presence of widespread soft-sediment deformation features, apparently confined to a single horizon in the Saddle Creek Formation some 700?–?1000 m stratigraphically higher in the Auvergne Group than the rocks at the impact site, and apparently increasing in thickness towards the Matt Wilson structure, lead us to speculate that this probable event horizon is related to the impact event: if correct the impact occurred during deposition of the Saddle Creek Formation.  相似文献   

Raindrop‐impact‐induced erosion processes and prediction: a review     

P. I. A. Kinnell 《水文研究》2005,19(14):2815-2844

Raindrop‐impact‐induced erosion is initiated when detachment of soil particles from the surface of the soil results from an expenditure of raindrop energy. Once detachment by raindrop impact has taken place, particles are transported away from the site of the impact by one or more of the following transport processes: drop splash, raindrop‐induced flow transport, or transport by flow without stimulation by drop impact. These transport processes exhibit varying efficiencies. Particles that fall back to the surface as a result of gravity produce a layer of pre‐detached particles that provides a degree of protection against the detachment of particles from the underlying soil. This, in turn, influences the erodibility of the eroding surface. Good understanding of rainfall erosion processes is necessary if the results of erosion experiments are to be properly interpreted. Current process‐based erosion prediction models do not deal with the issue of temporal variations in erodibility during a rainfall event or variabilities in erodibility associated with spatial changes in dominance of the transport processes that follow detachment by drop impact. Although more complex erosion models may deal with issues like this, their complexity and high data requirement may make them unsuitable for use as general prediction tools. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

核爆炸玻璃、撞击玻璃和玻璃陨石源岩   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

林文祝  欧阳自远 《地质科学》1991,(2):148-158

本文根据核爆炸岩石熔融玻璃的地球化学研究结果,与超速陨石撞击坑的熔岩进行比较,获得在远离热力学平衡条件下,各种玻璃和熔岩在化学成分上分布十分均匀的重要结论。岩石玻璃和熔岩是由基岩各组成岩石按一定比例混合熔融形成的。它们的主量元素和痕量元素丰度受基岩元素背景值制约。文中根据熔体和靶岩的化学成分,计算了熔岩各组成岩石的百分比。玻璃陨石是地壳岩石受撞击熔融形成的。同一撒布区的玻璃陨石化学成分相近,说明起源于同一源坑;而玻璃陨石化学成分的不同,则说明母岩组成分量的差异。因此,文中通过模拟计算,得出各玻璃陨石的组成源岩。澳大利亚撒布区的玻璃陨石,Al₂O₃,K₂O 和Na₂O 与 SiO₂及 K₂O/Na₂O 比值不完全相同,说明澳大利亚撒布区存在着几个不同的源岩和源坑,至少有印支、爪哇、菲律宾和澳大利亚四个相应撞击坑。  相似文献   

River channel adjustments downstream from channelization works in England and Wales   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Andrew Brookes 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1987,12(4):337-351

Relatively little attention has been given to river channel adjustments that occur downstream from channelization works. This study is concerned with the nature of channel adjustments downstream from a total of 46 channelization works located in low and high energy environments in England and Wales. Channel changes are identified principally by the method of field survey and by reconstructing the original positions of eroded beds and banks. Use is also made of maps, aerial photographs, and engineering drawings of different dates and the technique of space-for-time substitution is applied. Enlargement of channel cross-sections through erosion had occurred downstream from a variety of types, sizes, and dates of channelization works. The maximum increase of channel size was 153 per cent. Out of a total of 14 sites with enlarged channel cross-sections, seven had undergone a change of width only, at a further three width increased rather than depth, and at the remaining four sites depth increases were dominant. These sites all have relatively high stream powers. Factors causing spatial variation of erosion included tree roots locally binding bank sediments and the occurrence of bends. Planform change had taken place at only one site. A further three high stream power sites had downstream reaches incised into bedrock and therefore did not exhibit adjustment. Channel enlargement is explained in terms of increased flood flows downstream from channelization works causing higher stream velocities, which in turn cause erosion, thereby increasing channel width and/or depth. Examination of flow records for 35 stations revealed flood events which would formerly have spread overbank but are now confined by the channelization works and are therefore likely to alter downstream flows. At sites with downstream change it is proposed that the energy of increased flows was sufficient to exceed a threshold required for erosion of perimeter sediments. By contrast the absence of change at a majority of sites in low energy lowland areas could be a reflection of both the incompetence of increased flows to erode and resistance provided by perimeter sediments. Sites with erosion features appear not to have yet attained new equilibrium conditions.  相似文献   

Improving the accuracy of tipping-bucket rain records using disaggregation techniques   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. Molini  L.G. Lanza  P. La Barbera 《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):203

We present a methodology able to infer the influence of rainfall measurement errors on the reliability of extreme rainfall statistics. We especially focus on systematic mechanical errors affecting the most popular rain intensity measurement instrument, namely the tipping-bucket rain-gauge (TBR). Such uncertainty strongly depends on the measured rainfall intensity (RI) with systematic underestimation of high RIs, leading to a biased estimation of extreme rain rates statistics. Furthermore, since intense rain-rates are usually recorded over short intervals in time, any possible correction strongly depends on the time resolution of the recorded data sets. We propose a simple procedure for the correction of low resolution data series after disaggregation at a suitable scale, so that the assessment of the influence of systematic errors on rainfall statistics become possible. The disaggregation procedure is applied to a 40-year long rain-depth dataset recorded at hourly resolution by using the IRP (Iterated Random Pulse) algorithm. A set of extreme statistics, commonly used in urban hydrology practice, have been extracted from simulated data and compared with the ones obtained after direct correction of a 12-year high resolution (1 min) RI series. In particular, the depth–duration–frequency curves derived from the original and corrected data sets have been compared in order to quantify the impact of non-corrected rain intensity measurements on design rainfall and the related statistical parameters. Preliminary results suggest that the IRP model, due to its skill in reproducing extreme rainfall intensities at fine resolution in time, is well suited in supporting rainfall intensity correction techniques.  相似文献   

Calibration of tipping bucket rain gauges in the Graz urban research area   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Vilmos Vasvri 《Atmospheric Research》2005,77(1-4):18

The Institute of Urban Water Management and Landscape Water Engineering of the Graz University of Technology (Austria) operates a hydrological research area in the City of Graz. In this urban research area precipitation and runoff data are collected by order of the municipality of Graz. At present precipitation data are measured by seven tipping bucket rain gauges. Comparative measurements have shown a deviation between the recorded and the actual precipitation intensity. This made the institute calibrate the rain gauges periodically. In the middle of the 1990s, the development of a field calibration kit was started. Based on the experiences with the first field calibration kit, a microprocessor controlled device was developed. With this calibration device, the tipping bucket rain gauges are calibrated at regular intervals. In this paper the calibration process and the current results for seven rain gauges are discussed. The calibration process is dynamic calibration and uses a peristaltic pump. Not all of the tipping buckets investigated underestimate the rain intensity in the whole measuring range. Several rain gauges have a positive relative deviation, not exceeding 22%, in the low intensity range up to 0.5 mm/min. Positive deviation can be explained by retention of water in the buckets between tips. The reason for the negative deviation is the loss of water during the tips. It leads to the underestimate of the actual intensity. The largest relative deviation in the range of underestimate exceeds 30%. In the range of extreme intensities, the larger buckets (5 cm³) show a lower relative deviation than the smaller (2 cm³) buckets. The gauge characteristic can change in favourable or unfavourable directions after several years. Therefore, the calibration of tipping buckets is recommended at least every 2 to 3 years.  相似文献   

Run-up from impact tsunami     

D. G. Korycansky  Patrick J. Lynett 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,170(3):1076-1088

We report on calculations of the on-shore run-up of waves that might be generated by the impact of subkilometre asteroids into the deep ocean. The calculations were done with the COULWAVE code, which models the propagation and shore-interaction of non-linear moderate- to long-wavelength waves  ( kh < π)  using the extended Boussinesq approximation. We carried out run-up calculations for several different situations: (1) laboratory-scale monochromatic wave trains onto simple slopes; (2) 10–100 m monochromatic wave trains onto simple slopes; (3) 10–100 m monochromatic wave trains onto a compound slope representing a typical bathymetric profile of the Pacific coast of North America; (4) time-variable scaled trains generated by the collapse of an impact cavity in deep water onto simple slopes and (5) full-amplitude trains onto the Pacific coast profile. For the last case, we also investigated the effects of bottom friction on the run-up. For all cases, we compare our results with the so-called 'Irribaren scaling': The relative run-up   R / H ₀=ξ= s ( H ₀/ L ₀)^−1/2  , where the run-up is   R , H ₀  is the deep-water waveheight, L ₀ is the deep-water wavelength, s is the slope and ξ is a dimensionless quantity known as the Irribaren number. Our results suggest that Irribaren scaling breaks down for shallow slopes   s ≤ 0.01  when  ξ < 0.1 − 0.2  , below which   R / H ₀  is approximately constant. This regime corresponds to steep waves and very shallow slopes, which are the most relevant for impact tsunami, but also the most difficult to access experimentally.  相似文献   

From pastoralism to tourism: The historical impact of changing land use practices in Namaqualand   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

M.T. Hoffman  R.F. Rohde   《Journal of Arid Environments》2007,70(4):641

We use the concept of ecological revolutions to explain the environmental history of Namaqualand, from the advent of pastoralism 2000 years BP, to colonial settlement in the 18th century and finally to the recent trend of de-agrarianization from the middle of the 20th century. Early traveller's records and census data are used to assess changes in the human population of the region and how this affected wildlife and agricultural practices. Pre-colonial indigenous hunter-gatherer (Bushmen) and pastoralist (Khoekhoen) populations in Namaqualand consisted of probably no more than a few thousand individuals. Over the next three centuries, the general population rose steadily to more than 65,000 people but has fallen in recent years. Wildlife appears not to have been abundant in Namaqualand's pre-colonial landscapes and large springbok ‘treks’ were probably a rare event. The number of domestic livestock in Namaqualand peaked in 1957 largely as a result of an increase in the number of sheep which have fallen steadily since this time. Crop production was absent from Namaqualand's pre-colonial landscapes but increased to cover nearly 30,000 ha in the early 1970s. The area under cultivation has declined by nearly two thirds since this time largely as a result of the large-scale abandonment of wheat farming in marginal environments. We touch on differences between the communal areas and private farms, particularly in terms of their human populations and agricultural impact on the land. Repeat landscape photographs support our main findings which suggest that both rocky, upland habitats and rivers have not been transformed substantially by land use practices in Namaqualand. Instead, sandy pediments have borne the brunt of human impacts in the region. Finally, we highlight the beginning of a new ecological revolution in Namaqualand due to changes in the global and national political economy.  相似文献