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991.
全球变暖背景下,偶发极端冷事件产生的重大灾害损失不容忽视。探究区域极端冷事件的大尺度驱动因子的耦合影响,对预估和应对气候变化产生的极端灾害具有重要意义。本文基于新疆1961—2016年53个气象站点的逐日气温资料,通过反距离加权等方法对极端冷事件的时空演变特征进行分析;利用交叉小波变换对6个极端冷指数与大尺度驱动因子——北极涛动（AO）、北大西洋涛动（NAO）和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）进行多尺度分析;使用参数假设检验对大尺度驱动因子单一/耦合模态下的冷指数变化进行统计学显著性检验,随后对大尺度环流机制进行距平合成分析。结果表明：年均冷指数在时间尺度上均有显著性变化,新疆气温有明显的变暖趋势;空间尺度上冷指数在北疆、东疆和伊犁河谷地区的变化幅度远大于其他区域,存在空间差异性。AO、NAO与冷指数的相关性较强,ENSO与冷指数相关关系最弱但存在明显的时滞效应,大尺度驱动因子对极端冷指数的总体影响程度为AO>NAO>ENSO。单一模态下,极端冷事件在AO负位相、NAO负位相和La Ni?a事件期间易发生。耦合模态下,EI Ni?o-AO正位相和EI Ni?o-NAO正位相配置下冷日日数偏多;EI Ni?o-NAO负位相配置时极端低温值更小;La Ni?a-AO负位相和La Ni?a-NAO正位相时极端冷事件发生的可能性更大。EI Ni?o（La Ni?a）事件对AO（NAO）有一定的调制作用。新疆极端冷事件更易出现在La Ni?a-AO负位相、La Ni?a-NAO正位相时期,成因与亚欧大陆中高纬度位势异常导致冷空气路径偏西、乌拉尔阻塞加强与偏北气流影响新疆有关。 相似文献
992.
Some intelligent algorithms (IAs) proposed by us, including swarm IAs and single individual IAs, have been applied to the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model to solve conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) for studying El Ni?o – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability. Compared to the adjoint-based method (the ADJ-method), which is referred to as a benchmark, these IAs can achieve approximate CNOP results in terms of magnitudes and patterns. Using IAs to solve CNOP can avoid the use of an adjoint model and widen the application of CNOP in numerical climate and weather modeling. Of the proposed swarm IAs, PCA-based particle swarm optimization (PPSO) obtains CNOPs with the best patterns and the best stability. Of the proposed single individual IAs, continuous tabu search algorithm with sine maps and staged strategy (CTS-SS) has the highest efficiency. In this paper, we compare the validity, stability and efficiency of parallel PPSO and CTS-SS using these two IAs to solve CNOP in the ZC model for studying ENSO predictability. The experimental results show that CTS-SS outperforms parallel PPSO except with respect to stability. At the same time, we are also concerned with whether these two IAs can effectively solve CNOP when applied to more complicated models. Taking the sensitive areas identification of tropical cyclone adaptive observations as an example and using the fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5), we design some experiments. The experimental results demonstrate that each of these two IAs can effectively solve CNOP and that parallel PPSO has a higher efficiency than CTS-SS. We also provide some suggestions on how to choose a suitable IA to solve CNOP for different models. 相似文献
994.
《New Astronomy》2015
An updated period analysis for the overcontact eclipsing binary ER Orionis is presented. Featured is an improved derivation of parameters for the light time effect (LTE) due to the third star (in actuality, a pair of stars) utilising the latest set of eclipse timings. The very good fit between the eclipse timing differences (ETD) plot (otherwise known as an O–C diagram) and the theoretical ETD curve makes possible an improved determination of the rate of mass interchange between the binary pair, dm1/dt = +1.83(6) × 10−7 Mʘ/year. In addition, the mass of the companion system (in actuality, m3 sin i) and the elements of its orbit were computed. A suggestion is made for a method of future determination of the inclination of the orbit of the companion system. 相似文献
997.
999.
《New Astronomy》2015
In this article, a period analysis of the late-type eclipsing binary VV UMa is presented. This work is based on the periodic variation of eclipse timings of the VV UMa binary. We determined the orbital properties and mass of a third orbiting body in the system by analyzing the light-travel time effect. The O−C diagram constructed for all available minima times of VV UMa exhibits a cyclic character superimposed on a linear variation. This variation includes three maxima and two minima within approximately 28,240 orbital periods of the system, which can be explained as the light-travel time effect (LITE) because of an unseen third body in a triple system that causes variations of the eclipse arrival times. New parameter values of the light-time travel effect because of the third body were computed with a period of 23.22 ± 0.17 years in the system. The cyclic-variation analysis produces a value of 0.0139 day as the semi-amplitude of the light-travel time effect and 0.35 as the orbital eccentricity of the third body. The mass of the third body that orbits the eclipsing binary stars is 0.787 ± 0.02 M⊙, and the semi-major axis of its orbit is 10.75 AU. 相似文献
1000.
《New Astronomy》2015
We present a photometric study of a weak-contact binary V873 Per. New observations in BVR filter bands showed asymmetric light curves to be a negative type of the O’Connell effect, which can be described by magnetic activity of a cool spot on the more massive component. Our photometric solutions showed that V873 Per is a W-type with a mass ratio of q = 2.504(±0.0029), confirming the results of Samec et al. (2009). The derived contact degree was found to be f = 18.10%(±1.36%). Moreover, our analysis found the cyclic variation with the period of about 4 yr that could be due to existence of the third companion in the system or the mechanism of magnetic activity cycle in the binary. While available data indicated that the long-term orbital period tends to be stable rather than decreasing. 相似文献