Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models     

Mark S. Bebbington 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(2):921-942

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.  相似文献   

The influence of viscous and latent heating on crystal-rich magma flow in a conduit     

Alina J. Hale  Geoff Wadge  Hans B. Mühlhaus 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(3):1406-1429

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六盘山典型植被类型土壤中石砾对大孔隙形成的影响   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

时忠杰  王彦辉  熊伟  徐丽宏  于澎涛  徐大平 《山地学报》2007,25(5):541-547

六盘山山区土壤中存在大量的石砾,对土壤大孔隙的形成具有重要影响。为了深刻了解和评价土壤中石砾对大孔隙形成的可能作用,本研究分析了六盘山典型植被类型下土壤中的石砾体积含量、大孔隙度变异以及石砾体积含量对大孔隙度、大孔隙半径与密度的影响。结果表明,石砾含量增加导致土壤大孔隙的平均半径和体积增大,特别是导致半径大于1.4 mm的大孔隙密度的增大,但对较小半径的大孔隙密度影响不大;总体上,石砾对土壤大孔隙度的形成影响随土深的增加而越来越明显,说明六盘山地区土壤的大孔隙明显同时受到生物因素和石砾含量因素的影响。  相似文献   

东昆仑万保沟岩群洋岛地层序列特征和构造古地理的恢复     

蔡雄飞  魏启荣 《地层学杂志》2007,31(2):117-125

洋岛地层序列在造山带地区往往十分发育,它们在时间上、空间上具两大特点,时间上往往失序,空间上移位。东昆仑万保沟岩群也有洋岛地层序列通常具有洋岛型火山岩基底和碳酸盐岩盖层的双层式结构,具有低分异度、高丰度和地方性色彩的生物群面貌,因而温泉沟岩组和青办食宿站岩组在时间上具先后、空间上具紧密的关系。  相似文献   

ISLANDS AS NOVELTY SITES*     

GODFREY BALDACCHINO 《Geographical review》2007,97(2):165-174

ABSTRACT. Being on the edge, being out of sight and so out of mind, exposes the weakness of mainstream ideas, orthodoxies, and paradigms and foments alternatives to the status quo. Islands are thus propelled as sites of innovative conceptualizations, whether of nature or human enterprise, whether virtual or real. They stand out as sites of novelty; they tend toward clairvoyance; they are disposed to act as advance indicators or extreme reproductions of what is present or future elsewhere. This article, which is essentially bibliographical, celebrates islands as the quintessential sites for experimentation, with reference to the physical sciences, the social sciences, and literature.  相似文献   

A Combined Three-Dimensional Geological-Geostatistical-Numerical Model of Underground Excavations in Rock   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

M. Stavropoulou  G. Exadaktylos  G. Saratsis 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2007,40(3):213-243

Summary. This paper exploits geological and borehole geotechnical data obtained in the exploratory phase of a tunneling project to investigate in a first place if the kriging interpolation scheme may effectively reproduce the spatial variability of rock mass quality (Rock Mass Rating, RMR) in the vicinity of tunnels. For this purpose a quick solver in Fortran has been developed that performs variography analysis of 3D spatial data, fast kriging estimations of RMR between borehole sampling locations at the centroids of the elements of the numerical model, and model validation. For the purpose of an integrated underground excavation design, a step further is made by incorporating into the 3D mechanical numerical model of the rock mass, the three-dimensional (3D) solid geological model, thus coupling the geology with the ground (geotechnical) model (i.e. each element of the numerical model is assigned a geological material). The mechanical properties of each finite difference cell (or Representative Elementary Volume) of the ground model were then prescribed according to its geological type, the spatial heterogeneity of the rock mass expressed quantitatively with the kriging model, and the upscaling calculations of the mechanical properties of the intact rocks determined in the laboratory, based on the size-effect (strength dependence on size) and Damage Theory. Furthermore, a preliminary numerical simulation of the advance of unsupported tunnels in the model of the heterogeneous rock mass was performed for illustration purposes.  相似文献   

460铀-钼矿床控矿因素及矿床成因探讨   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

沈光银 《矿产与地质》2007,21(5):509-514

460矿床是上世纪80年代在冀北沽源中生代火山断陷盆地西部发现的大型铀-钼矿床。在对该矿床野外实地调研的基础上，结合矿床地质详查和矿床专题科研报告的综合分析，对矿床的控矿因素进行了系统总结。研究结果表明，矿床受NE向断裂（F45）和火山构造的联合控制；火山活动晚期沿断裂和中心式火山机构侵入的次流纹斑岩体是矿床定位的决定性因素；铀-钼矿化主要产于次流纹斑岩体产状变异部位或接触带附近；容矿构造为次流纹斑岩体接触带构造、隐爆角砾岩和J3z^3-5川层流纹岩中的层间裂隙带。研究认为，铀矿化受断裂构造、火山机构、岩浆活动、热液蚀变等作用的复合控制，其中火山口-火山通道相的次流纹斑岩体是主要的控矿因素。  相似文献   

重庆城口地区早前寒武系黑色岩系研究:(1)铂族元素成矿潜力评估   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

罗泰义  宁兴贤  罗远良  陶琰  朱丹  姚林波  马德云 《矿物学报》2007,27(3):287-301

重庆城口地区从震旦统到下寒武统发育有丰富的黑色岩系,20世纪末期在该地区黑色岩系中开展了大量的铂族元素(PGE)的找矿工作,但是由于种种原因,关于该地区是否存在PGE矿化异常,还没有得到最终的结论.本次研究在PGE分析方法论证的基础上,进行了大量样品的PGE分析和微量元素分析.主要结论如下①区域上上震旦统槽区和断块区两套黑色岩系在原始的沉积环境和物源供给上有较大的差异,虽然槽区上震旦统的黑色岩系具有和下寒武统黑色岩系相似但强度较低的V-Cu-Y-Mo-U异常,但基本上不具有明显的PGE-Au-Ag异常.②断块区水井沱组黑色岩系和平剖面西段新发现的U-V-Mo-PGE异常可能是今后工作的重点,Pt＋Pd最高达248.9×10-9,局部U-V都达到了工业品位.③槽区巴山组硅质岩四个剖面都揭示了在硅质岩中广泛存在连续的PGE异常,87个碳质硅质岩平均含Pt＋Pd 57.2×10-9,有10个样品Pt Pd》100×10-9,最高达196.5×10-9;大部分碳质硅质岩都具有不同程度的V-Cu-Y-Mo-Tl-U组合异常,V都达到了独立矿床的品位要求,其中猪草河、燕子河等剖面还存在厚度较大的富矿地段,特别是燕子河剖面,局部还存在REE＋Y的高异常,值得深入研究.④城巴地区下寒武统黑色岩系存在广泛的PGE异常,但没有达到PGE的矿化要求,建议加强该地区的钒矿和铀矿勘探研究,PGE可以综合评价.  相似文献   

基于小波变换的反射光谱分析在蛇绿岩识别中的应用研究——以西准噶尔地区为例     

赵同阳  周可法  张晓帆  陈川  徐仕琪 《西北地质》2007,40(4):87-93

介绍了基于小波变换的反射光谱分析技术的基本理论和方法;运用此技术手段对克拉玛依市白碱滩区西侧地区40条岩石野外光谱曲线数据进行了定量处理,总结并分析了蛇绿岩套中常见典型岩石(基性混杂岩、辉长岩、橄榄岩、蛇纹石)的光谱特征及其产生原因。最后,结合ETM 波段范围提出了适用于西准噶尔地区多波段遥感影像光谱角(Spectral Angle Mapper,SAM)提取模型,从遥感影像上识别蛇绿岩分布奠定了良好的基础。  相似文献   

新疆伊吾县宝山铁矿地质特征、成矿模式与找矿方向   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

张锦祥  聂卫东  赵献丽  张明君  朱靖  徐兴旺 《新疆地质》2007,25(4):368-372

宝山铁矿位于新疆东准噶尔晚古生代岛弧岩浆-构造成矿带东部,位于琼河坝铁铜多金属矿集区.宝山铁矿为由热液交代成因夕卡岩型磁铁矿矿体和黄铜矿-磁铁矿矿体、贯入成因夕卡岩型磁铁矿矿体和热液充填型黄铜矿矿脉构成的铁矿床,目前开采的主要为磁铁矿型铁矿.矿区岩浆岩类型多样,主要有花岗岩、辉长岩和辉绿玢岩.从矿体被花岗岩穿插及贯入型磁铁矿中含Co高等特征推断,主成矿岩体可能为隐伏的辉长岩.矿区深部存在规模较大的含矿夕卡岩质成矿流体"生产车间",含矿夕卡岩质流体的形成与迁移是脉动的,成矿后期以铜的成矿为主.宝山铁矿下步的找矿重点应放在对露天采坑深部隐伏铁矿和矿区深部隐伏铜矿的预测与探查.  相似文献