Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献   

Framing in geographical analysis of environmental conflicts: Theory, methodology and three case studies     

Deborah F. Shmueli 《Geoforum》2008,39(6):2048-2061

When applied to environmental concerns, framing offers a rigorous conceptual and analytic approach with potentially practical significance for dealing with complex issues relevant to geography. The purpose of this article is to introduce framing concepts, typology and modes of analysis to address issues which geographers commonly treat: disputes over land ownership and uses, competition for water resources, cultural clashes over control of territory and resources and the impact of spatial patterns and structures when siting noxious sites. Framing analysis is applied to three cases of environmental conflict in Israel and, more generally, for understanding conflicts revolving around the management of human habitats in relation to the physical environment.  相似文献   

Mapping ambivalence: Exploring the geographies of community change and rails-to-trails development using photo-based Q method and PPGIS   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Timothy Hawthorne  John Krygier 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):1058-1078

As the literature on trail development suggests, recreational trail projects can generate conflicts and controversies, particularly when built on abandoned rail corridors through developed areas. These conflicts are often understood as “not in my back yard” (NIMBY) reactions, suggesting a spatial proximity to conflict which increases as one draws closer to the proposed trail. This research seeks to understand local residents’ perceptions and reactions to recreational trail development in the City of Delaware (Ohio, USA). It addresses two spatially infused questions: Does the potential for conflict related to trail development increase as people live closer to a potential trail (the NIMBY factor)? Can important qualitative factors about favorable and unfavorable land uses including potential recreational trail sites be defined using a participatory methodology and then represented in GIS? The study used a mixed-method approach to collect and analyze qualitative data from a group of local residents. Each participant was interviewed and asked to sort 19 pictures related to trail development. After each of the sorts, participants were asked to explain why they ranked the pictures the way they did. Results of the picture sorts were then analyzed using Q method and mapped with GIS. The results show that spatial proximity matters in the context of trail development and potential NIMBY reactions to trails. Significant differences were found in the picture sorts that reveal the importance of proximity and location, although in a manner contrary to the assumptions in the writings on rails-to-trails. Through combining qualitative methods, Q analysis and PPGIS analysis, the research shows that qualitative place-based studies are capable of generating insights about the complexities of situated geographic change such as recreational trail development.  相似文献   

Geobarometry for Peridotites: Experiments in Simple and Natural Systems from 6 to 10 GPa   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Brey  Gerhard P.; Bulatov  Vadim K.; Girnis  Andrei V. 《Journal of Petrology》2008,49(1):3-24

Experiments with peridotite minerals in simple (MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂,CaO–MgO–SiO₂ and CaO–MgO–Al₂O₃–SiO₂)and natural systems were conducted at 1300–1500°Cand 6–10 GPa using a multi-anvil apparatus. The experimentsin simple systems demonstrated consistency with previous lowerpressure experiments in belt and piston–cylinder set-ups.The analysis of spatial variations in pyroxene compositionswithin experimental samples was used to demonstrate that pressureand temperature variations within the samples were less than0·4 GPa and 50°C. Olivine capsules were used in natural-systemexperiments with two mineral mixtures: SC1 (olivine + high-Alorthopyroxene + high-Al clinopyroxene + spinel) and J4 (olivine+ low-Al orthopyroxene + low-Al clinopyroxene + garnet). Theexperiments produced olivine + orthopyroxene + garnet ±clinopyroxene assemblages, occasionally with magnesite and carbonate-richmelt. Equilibrium compositions were derived by the analysisof grain rims and evaluation of mineral zoning. They were comparedwith our previous experiments with the same starting mixturesat 2·8–6·0 GPa and the results from simplesystems. The compositions of minerals from experiments withnatural mixtures show smooth pressure and temperature dependencesup to a pressure of 8 GPa. The experiments at 9 and 10 GPa producedandradite-rich garnets and pyroxene compositions deviating fromthe trends defined by the lower pressure experiments (e.g. higherAl in orthopyroxene and Ca in clinopyroxene). This discrepancyis attributed to a higher degree of oxidation in the high-pressureexperiments and an orthopyroxene–high-P clinopyroxenephase transition at 9 GPa. Based on new and previous resultsin simple and natural systems, a new version of the Al-in-orthopyroxenebarometer is presented. The new barometer adequately reproducesexperimental pressures up to 8 GPa. KEY WORDS: garnet; mineral equilibrium; multi-anvil apparatus; orthopyroxene; geobarometry  相似文献   

Correlation of the Jurassic-Cretaceous siliceous-volcanogenic sediments in northwestern surroundings of the Pacific (Koryak Upland)     

V. S. Vishnevskaya  N. I. Filatova 《Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation》2008,16(6):618-638

In distribution areas of the Pekul’neiveem and Chirynai formations customary distinguishable in the Koryak Upland, complicated tectonostratigraphic units are composed of alternating thrust sheets of different lithologic composition and age, which are juxtaposed because of widespread thrust faulting, as is proved by the radiolarian analysis. Nineteen radiolarian assemblages of different age are first established here in the Lower Jurassic-Hauterivian succession of siliceous-volcanogenic sediments. In the Lower Jurassic interval, the lower and upper Hettangian, lower and upper Sinemurian, and Pliensbachian beds are recognized. Paleontological characterization is also presented for the Aalenian (or Toarcian?-Aalenian), upper Bajocian, lower and upper Bathonian, and Callovian beds of the Middle Jurassic. Within the Upper Jurassic, the Oxfordian-early Kimmeridgian, late Kimmeridgian-early Tithonian, Tithonian, and late Tithonian-early Berriasian radiolarian assemblages are distinguished. The late Berriasian-early Valanginian, middle-late Valanginian, and Hauterivian radiolarian assemblages are first recognized or compositionally revised. Radiolarians and lithofacies data are used to correlate the tectonostratigraphic units and individualize the jasper-alkali basaltic (lower Hettangian), chert-terrigenous (Hettangian-Sinemurian), jasper-cherty (Pliensbachian-Aalenian), jasper (Bajocian-Hauterivian), jasper-basaltic (upper Bajocian-Valanginian), Fe-Ti basaltic (upper Bajocian-Bathonian), tuffitejasper-basaltic (Bathonian-Hauterivian), and terrigenous-volcanogenic (Bajocian-Valanginian) sequences. The correlation results are extrapolated into other continental areas flanking the Pacific, i.e., to the western Kamchatka, northern and northwestern coastal areas of the Sea of Okhotsk, where the analogous radiolarian assemblages are characteristic of comparable allochthonous units of terrigenous-siliceous-volcanogenic sediments.  相似文献   

Geochronology of Pliocene volcanism in the Dzhavakheti Highland (the Lesser Caucasus). Part 1: Western part of the Dzhavakheti Highland     

V. A. Lebedev  S. N. Bubnov  O. Z. Dudauri  G. T. Vashakidze 《Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation》2008,16(2):204-224

Isotopic-geochronological study of the Pliocene magmatic activity in western part of the Dzhavakheti Highland (northwestern region of the Lesser Caucasus) is carried out. The results obtained imply that the Pliocene magmatic activity lasted in this part of the highland approximately 2 million years from 3.75 to 1.75–1.55 Ma. As is established, the studied volcanic rocks correspond in composition mostly to K-Na subalkaline and more abundant normal basalts. Time constraints of main phases in development of basic volcanism within the study region are figured out. We assume that individual pulses of silicic to moderately silicic volcanism presumably took place in the Dzhavakheti Highland about 3.2 and 2.5 Ma ago.  相似文献   

On the Assessment of Failure in Slope Stability Analysis by the Finite Element Method   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

H. Zheng  D. F. Liu  C. G. Li 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2008,41(4):629-639

  相似文献   

Feasibility of pre-earthquake strengthening of buildings based on cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analysis, with the aid of fragility curves   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Andreas J. Kappos  E. G. Dimitrakopoulos 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):33-54

There are two fundamental questions this article aims to deal with. First, whether a pre-earthquake strengthening of a large and heterogeneous building stock (the emphasis here is on building types common in S. Europe), is economically feasible or not, and second what is the optimal retrofit level for mitigating the seismic risk. To this purpose contemporary decision making tools, namely cost-benefit and life-cycle cost analyses, are tailored to the needs of the present study, and implemented with the aid of an ad-hoc developed new software application (COBE06). A method for estimating the reduction in structural vulnerability due to retrofit is proposed, as well as a methodology to determine the optimum retrofit level using the fragility curve approach. Finally, the proposed methodology is used in a pilot application that concerns the city of Thessaloniki, and results are drawn for the feasibility of strengthening the reinforced concrete building stock in this city.  相似文献   

Si diffusion in zircon     

D. J. Cherniak 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2008,35(4):179-187

Self-diffusion of Si under anhydrous conditions at 1 atm has been measured in natural zircon. The source of diffusant for experiments was a mixture of ZrO₂ and ³⁰Si-enriched SiO₂ in 1:1 molar proportions; experiments were run in crimped Pt capsules in 1-atm furnaces. ³⁰Si profiles were measured with both Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and nuclear reaction analysis with the resonant nuclear reaction ³⁰Si(p,γ)³¹P. For Si diffusion normal to c over the temperature range 1,350–1,550°C, we obtain an Arrhenius relation D = 5.8 exp(−702 ± 54 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹ for the NRA measurements, which agrees within uncertainty with an Arrhenius relation determined from the RBS measurements [62 exp(−738 ± 61 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹]. Diffusion of Si parallel to c appears slightly faster, but agrees within experimental uncertainty at most temperatures with diffusivities for Si normal to c. Diffusion of Si in zircon is similar to that of Ti, but about an order of magnitude faster than diffusion of Hf and two orders of magnitude faster than diffusion of U and Th. Si diffusion is, however, many orders of magnitude slower than oxygen diffusion under both dry and hydrothermal conditions, with the difference increasing with decreasing temperature because of the larger activation energy for Si diffusion. If we consider Hf as a proxy for Zr, given its similar charge and size, we can rank the diffusivities of the major constituents in zircon as follows: D _Zr < D _Si << D _{O, dry} < D _{O, ‘wet’}.  相似文献   

Structural investigation of the synthetic CaAn(PO4)2 (An = Th and Np) cheralite-like phosphates     

Philippe E. Raison  Regis Jardin  Daniel Bouëxière  Rudy J. M. Konings  Thorsten Geisler  Claudiu C. Pavel  Jean Rebizant  Karin Popa 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2008,35(10):603-609

The crystallographic structures of the synthetic cheralite, CaTh(PO₄)₂, and its homolog CaNp(PO₄)₂ have been investigated by X-ray diffraction at room temperature. Rietveld analyses showed that both compounds crystallize in the monoclinic system and are isostructural to monazite LnPO₄ (Ln = La to Gd). The space group is P2₁/n (I.T. = 14) with Z = 2. The refined lattice parameters of CaTh(PO₄)₂ are a = 6.7085(8) Å, b = 6.9160(6) Å, c = 6.4152(6) Å, and β = 103.71(1)° with best fit parameters R _wp = 4.87%, R _p = 3.69% and R _B = 3.99%. For CaNp(PO₄)₂, we obtained a = 6.6509(5) Å, b = 6.8390(3) Å, c = 6.3537(8) Å, and β = 104.12(6)° and R _wp = 6.74%, R _p = 5.23%, and R _B = 6.05%. The results indicate significant distortions of bond length and angles of the PO₄ tetrahedra in CaTh(PO₄)₂ and to a lesser extent in CaNp(PO₄)₂. The structural distortions were confirmed by Raman spectroscopy of CaTh(PO₄)₂. A comparison with the isostructural compounds LnPO₄ (Ln = Ce and Sm) confirmed that the substitution of the large rare earth trivalent cations with Ca²⁺ and Th⁴⁺ introduces a distortion of the PO₄ tetrahedra.  相似文献