甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震发生日期的触发因素分析及对短临预测方法的思考          下载免费PDF全文

郭增建  郭安宁  张炜超  赵乘程  李鑫 《地震工程学报》2013,35(3):413-418

短临预报是目前地震预测的难点,通过对2013年甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震发生日期的研究,发现发生日期7月22日是节气、低点位移、异年倍七律和朔望共同作用的时间点。据此,本文用一些基于可能触发地震发生的非传统方法的时间预测方法,回顾性地讨论了甘肃岷县漳县MS6.6地震发生日期的临震日期预测问题。通过对岷县漳县MS6.6地震研究,认为在地震短临日期的预测上。一些非传统方法虽然在机理上还有待研究,但在统计上多次证明该方法具有预测准确性的效能。要基于传统方法与非传统方法结合,才能对临震预测的时间逼近,同时提出今后预测临震时间的思路:多因素不断拦截法。  相似文献   

The effects of climate change on historical and future extreme rainfall in Antalya,Turkey     

Abdullah Gokhan Yilmaz 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(12):2148-2162

Abstract

There is increasing concern that flood risk will be exacerbated in Antalya, Turkey as a result of global-warming-induced, more frequent and intensive, heavy rainfalls. In this paper, first, trends in extreme rainfall indices in the Antalya region were analysed using daily rainfall data. All stations in the study area showed statistically significant increasing trends for at least one extreme rainfall index. Extreme rainfall datasets for current (1970–1989) and future periods (2080–2099) were then constructed for frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold method. Frequency analysis of extreme rainfall data was performed using generalized Pareto distribution for current and future periods in order to estimate rainfall intensities for various return periods. Rainfall intensities for the future period were found to increase by up to 23% more than the current period. This study contributed to better understanding of climate change effects on extreme rainfalls in Antalya, Turkey.  相似文献   

Response of the hydrological regime of the Yellow River to the changing monsoon intensity and human activity     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):90-100

Abstract

In the past 50 years, influenced by global climate change, the East Asian summer monsoon intensity (SMI) changed significantly, leading to a response by the water cycle of the Yellow River basin. The variation in SMI has three stages: (1) 1951–1963, SMI increased; (2) 1963–1965, SMI declined sharply, a feature that may be regarded as an abrupt change; and (3) 1965–2000, SMI remained at low levels and showed a tendency to decline slowly. The decreased SMI led to a reduction in water vapour transfer from the ocean to the Yellow River basin, and thus precipitation decreased and the natural river runoff of the Yellow River also decreased. Due to the increase in population and therefore in irrigated land area, the ratio of net water diversion to natural river runoff increased continuously. Comparison of the ratio of net water diversion to natural river runoff before and after the abrupt change in SMI indicates some discontinuity in the response of the man-induced lateral branch of the water cycle to the abrupt change in SMI. The frequently occurring flow desiccation in the lower Yellow River can be regarded as a response of the water cycle system to the decreasing summer monsoon intensity and increasing population. When the ratio of net water diversion exceeded the ratio of natural runoff of the low-flow season to the annual total natural runoff, flow desiccation in the lower Yellow River would occur. When the ratio of net water diversion is 0.3 larger than the ratio of the natural runoff of the low-flow season to the annual total natural runoff, an abrupt increase in the number of flow desiccation events is likely to occur.  相似文献   

A note on the applicability of log-Gumbel and log-logistic probability distributions in hydrological analyses: II. Assumed pdf     

STANISLAW WEGLARCZYK  WITOLD G. STRUPCZEWSKI  VIJAY P. SINGH 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):123-137

Abstract

Applicability of log-Gumbel (LG) and log-logistic (LL) probability distributions in hydrological studies is critically examined under real conditions, where the assumed distribution differs from the true one. The set of alternative distributions consists of five two-parameter distributions with zero lower bound, including LG and LL as well as lognormal (LN), linear diffusion analogy (LD) and gamma (Ga) distributions. The log-Gumbel distribution is considered as both a false and a true distribution. The model error of upper quantiles and of the first two moments is analytically derived for three estimation methods: the method of moments (MOM), the linear moments method (LMM) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). These estimation methods are used as methods of approximation of one distribution by another distribution. As recommended in the first of this two-part series of papers, MLM turns out to be the worst method, if the assumed LG or LL distribution is not the true one. It produces a huge bias of upper quantiles, which is at least one order higher than that of the other two methods. However, the reverse case, i.e. acceptance of LN, LD or Ga as a hypothetical distribution, while the LG or LL distribution is the true one, gives the MLM bias of reasonable magnitude in upper quantiles. Therefore, one should avoid choosing the LG and LL distributions in flood frequency analysis, especially if MLM is to be applied.  相似文献   

Flooding in Fiji: findings from a 100-year historical series     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):1004-1015

Abstract

Correspondence from a long-established sugar mill provided the opportunity to construct the longest flood series for a river in Fiji—the Ba River in northwest Viti Levu—from 1892 to 2002. Flood waters reached the mill floor every four years on average. Contrary to common lore, this study could detect no increase in the frequency of major floods over the course of the 20th century, despite intensification of land use and siltation of the river channel over that time. Large, slow-moving tropical cyclones situated northwest of the valley have generated large floods, but so too have tropical rainstorms. Major floods have occurred in months when the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was both negative and positive, suggesting that the SOI is a poor indicator of flood potential for the Ba River.  相似文献   

IMPACT OF THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON THE NORTH AMERICAN SOUTHWEST MONSOON     

John A. Harrington Jr.  Randall S. Cerveny  Robert C. Balling Jr. 《自然地理学》2013,34(4):318-330

The intensity and spatial variations in the North American Southwest Monsoon are examined to determine the influence of the Southern Oscillation. Sixty-five years (1920–1984) of July and August monthly precipitation data from Arizona and New Mexico are normalized using a square root transformation, converted into z-scores, and stratified according to onset and following years for Warm Events and Cold Events of the Southern Oscillation. The results for July reveal different spatial patterns in the monsoonal precipitation for the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. Warm-Event onset years are associated with positive precipitation anomalies that decline along a northeast-to-southwest gradient across the study area whereas the Cold-Event onset years produce highest positive values in west-central Arizona and negative values throughout the eastern two-thirds of the study area. Spatial patterns for the August precipitation data do not appear to be influenced by the extremes of the Southern Oscillation. [Key words: Southwest Monsoon, Southern Oscillation, Arizona, New Mexico.]  相似文献   

THE ROLE OF VEGETATION DYNAMICS IN CHOCTAWHATCHEE SAND PINE INVASION OF LONGLEAF PINE FORESTS     

Deanna H. McCay  Kathleen C. Parker 《自然地理学》2013,34(6):467-482

The expansion of Choctawhatchee sand pine (Pinus clausa) into longleaf pine forests (Pinus palustris) has been widespread on the Florida Panhandle since the early 1900s. This study examines the population-level processes of this sand pine invasion. Expansion of sand pine started by 1920, but rapidly increased in the 1940s. Population establishment and growth in invasive stands has been rapid, with establishment of many sand pine pioneer individuals followed by rapid infilling as these individuals reached reproductive maturity. Both noninvasive and invasive stands had numerous sand pine seedlings and saplings. Sand pine will likely persist in these communities in the near future. Analyses of hemispherical canopy photographs and regeneration patterns illustrate the ability of sand pine to establish under a variety of light conditions. Radial growth analysis of incremental tree cores highlights the importance of episodic wind disturbances in maintaining these sand pine populations. [Key words: sand pine, longleaf pine, Pinus clausa, Florida, pine invasion, Pinus palustris.]  相似文献   

弱GPS信号捕获算法及其仿真研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘毓  邹星 《测绘科学》2013,38(3):192-193,199

为满足低信噪比环境下的导航需要,介绍了一种基于改进循环相关的GPS基带信号捕获算法。本文借助于GPS信号基带数学模型以及FFT技术,从理论层面上对捕获算法的信号处理流程以及捕获性能进行了分析;并利用真实GPS基带数据对算法在低信噪比环境下的检测概率和捕获能力进行了重点仿真,仿真结果显示算法在低信噪比环境下是有效的,能够提高低信噪比环境下的检测概率和提高GPS接收机的检测灵敏度。  相似文献   

红鳍东方鲀(Takifugu rubripes)耐低温性状和生长性状遗传参数评估     

赵海池  刘志峰  王新安  包玉龙  刘圣聪  杨明超  闫鹏飞  马爱军 《海洋与湖沼》2024,55(2):517-525

采用人工控温的方式, 对构建的31个F₁红鳍东方鲀(Takifugu rubripes)全同胞家系开展低温胁迫实验, 获得耐低温性状低温累计存活时间(CDH), 基于混合线性模型分别开展耐低温性状和生长性状遗传参数评估,对每一性状是否需要考虑共同环境效应所构建的两种模型进行似然比检验。结果显示, 经似然比检验, 最终选用模型A和模型BF进行耐低温和生长性状遗传评估; 耐低温性状CDH遗传力为(0.27±0.08),属于中等遗传力; 体重BW遗传力为(0.36±0.13), 属于中等遗传力, 体长BL遗传力为(0.14±0.06), 属于低等遗传力, 经检验, 遗传力估计值均达到极显著水平(P<0.01)。CDH和体重、体长的遗传相关分别为(-0.40±0.22)和(-0.44±0.24), 表型相关分别为(-0.09±0.06)和(-0.16± 0.05), 均为负相关; 体重和体长之间的遗传相关为(0.92±0.05), 表型相关为(0.80±0.02), 呈正相关且结果极显著(P<0.01)。研究结果表明, 红鳍东方鲀的耐低温性状和生长性状都具有较好的改良潜力, 考虑到两性状间存在负遗传相关, 在开展耐低温选育时, 对首先不同性状进行品系选育, 然后利用品系间杂交培育出耐高温、生长快的新品种。该项研究首次完成了红鳍东方鲀耐低温性状的遗传参数评估, 为制订红鳍东方鲀耐低温选育育种规划提供了理论依据。  相似文献   

Annual Frequency of Tropical Cyclones Directly Affecting Guangdong Province:Prediction Based on LSTM-FC     

胡娅敏  陈韵竹  何健  刘圣军  闫文杰  赵亮  汪明圣  李芷卉  王娟怀  董少柔  刘新儒 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):45-56

Tropical cyclone (TC) annual frequency forecasting is significant for disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province. Based on the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis and NOAA Extended Reconstructed global sea surface temperature (SST) V5 data in winter, the TC frequency climatic features and prediction models have been studied. During 1951-2019, 353 TCs directly affected Guangdong with an annual average of about 5.1. TCs have experienced an abrupt change from abundance to deficiency in the mid to late 1980 with a slightly decreasing trend and a normal distribution. 338 primary precursors are obtained from statistically significant correlation regions of SST, sea level pressure, 1000hPa air temperature, 850hPa specific humidity, 500hPa geopotential height and zonal wind shear in winter. Then those 338 primary factors are reduced into 19 independent predictors by principal component analysis (PCA). Furthermore, the Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), the Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and the Long Short-term Memory Networks and Fully Connected Layers (LSTM-FC) models are constructed relying on the above 19 factors. For three different kinds of test sets from 2010 to 2019, 2011 to 2019 and 2010 to 2019, the root mean square errors (RMSEs) of MLR, GPR and LSTM-FC between prediction and observations fluctuate within the range of 1.05-2.45, 1.00-1.93 and 0.71-0.95 as well as the average absolute errors (AAEs) 0.88-1.0, 0.75-1.36 and 0.50-0.70, respectively. As for the 2010-2019 experiment, the mean deviations of the three model outputs from the observation are 0.89, 0.78 and 0.56, together with the average evaluation scores 82.22, 84.44 and 88.89, separately. The prediction skill comparisons unveil that LSTM-FC model has a better performance than MLR and GPR. In conclusion, the deep learning model of LSTM-FC may shed light on improving the accuracy of short-term climate prediction about TC frequency. The current research can provide experience on the development of deep learning in this field and help to achieve further progress of TC disaster prevention and mitigation in Guangdong Province.  相似文献