Modelling real earthquake activity with reverse engineering based on evolutionary computation methods     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(4):275-288

Hazard assessment of dangerous natural phenomena is critical because of their evident results concerning loss of human life and property, especially in dense populated areas. Earthquakes are probably the most devastating phenomenon since their immediate and long-term consequences are severe. This study is focused on the earthquake data analysis in different regions of Greece, characterised by different seismicity levels. In specific, a novel model is proposed based on evolutionary computation methods, such as symbolic regression by genetic programming and genetic algorithms in order to elucidate preliminary hidden mathematical relations and patterns found in the seismological signals under study. Furthermore, the model is calibrated using reverse engineering and closes the loop from the data collection to initial hypothesis. In this way, the model formation is achieved. The presented simulation results qualitatively and quantitatively reveal some of the fundamental characteristics of each studied geographical region located in Greece that stem from its geodynamic properties.  相似文献   

Updated normalized load-settlement model for full-scale footings on granular soils     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(1):63-80

The design of spread footings on granular soils is generally governed by serviceability requirements. Recent studies have utilized databases of load tests to investigate the use of normalized load-settlement curves to model the behavior of footings on sands. A major limitation of available databases is that they are based primarily on data from plate load tests or footings that have an equivalent width smaller than 1.0 m. There is a need to confirm the applicability of these curves to footings of practical scale. The main objective of this paper is to update available normalized load-settlement curves using point measurements of settlement and load from full-scale footings. Bayesian techniques are employed in the updating process. Results indicate that the updated normalized load-settlement relationship is slightly more conservative but less uncertain than the current relationship. Results from an illustrative example involving serviceability limit state reliability analyses using footings with widths ranging from 1.5 to 3.0 m indicated that the updated relationship resulted in a slightly higher reliability level compared to the prior relationship.  相似文献   

Safety assessment of infrastructures using a new Bayesian Monte Carlo method     

《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2013,7(3-4):195-206

A recently developed Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) method and its application to safety assessment of structures are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional BMC method that was proposed in 2009 by Rajabalinejad in order to develop a weighted logical dependence between successive Monte Carlo simulations. Our main objective in this research is to show that the extended BMC can dramatically improve simulation efficiency by using prior information from modelling and outcomes of preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for an extended BMC method for multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model and apply these coupled models to assessment of reliability of a flood defence for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans. This is the first successful demonstration of the BMC method to a complex system. We provide a comparison of the numerical efficiency for the BMC, Monte Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Bounds methods that are used in reliability assessment of complex infrastructures.  相似文献   

三维电磁阵列剖面法的基本原理及应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

刘宏  王家映 《地球物理学进展》1997,12(1):61-73

本文论述了三维电磁阵列剖面法的基本原理，并从理论上论述了大地电磁测深中的静态效应是由电磁响应中与频率无关的静态项引起的，基于这一原理，本文提出了三维ＥＭＡＰ野外采集方式和数据处理方程。三维ＥＭＡＰ法不仅能消除ＭＴ中的静态效应，而且由于采集信息量大大增加，较常规ＭＴ有更好的地质效果，文中给出的实例证明了这一点。  相似文献   

强矿震地球物理过程及短临阶段预测的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李铁  蔡美峰  冀林旺  左艳  孙丽娟 《东北地震研究》2004,20(3):39-46

用区域强震震源机制解、现场地应力测量、三维有限差分数值模拟方法分析强矿震的孕震环境；通过定量观察采矿与矿震活动的相关性，分析强矿震的诱发原因；基于中尺度地震实验场高密度数字地震和前兆台网的现场观测，用地震学方法和小波工具分析强矿震孕震过程采集到的数据，提取短临阶段的异常信息；通过强矿震的震源机制解判断震源处的应力释放状态。提出地质构造环境、地应力场和采矿活动共同作用诱发强矿震的机理和次生应力场在孕育该震过程起主导作用的观点．发现震前短临阶段存在可信的b值、η值、频次、波速比等地震学异常和定点潮汐形变前兆异常，时异常信息的提取方法和强矿震短临阶段的预测进行了探讨。  相似文献   

Noise reduction methods in the analysis of near infrared lunar occultation light curves for high angular resolution measurements     

Tapas Baug  Thyagarajan Chandrasekhar 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2013,(11):1363-1380

A lunar occultation （LO） technique in the near-infrared （NIR） provides angular resolution down to milliarcseconds for an occulted source, even with ground- based 1 m class telescopes. LO observations are limited to brighter objects because they require a high signal-to-noise ratio （S/N ~40） for proper extraction of angular diameter values. Hence, methods to improve the S/N ratio by reducing noise using Fourier and wavelet transforms have been explored in this study. A sample of 54 NIR LO light curves observed with the IR camera at Mt Abu Observatory has been used. It is seen that both Fourier and wavelet methods have shown an improvement in S/N compared to the original data. However, the application of wavelet transforms causes a slight smoothing of the fringes and results in a higher value for angular diameter. Fourier transforms which reduce discrete noise frequencies do not distort the fringe. The Fourier transform method seems to be effective in improving the S/N, as well as improving the model fit, particularly in the fainter regime of our sample. These methods also provide a better model fit for brighter sources in some cases, though there may not be a significant imorovement in S/N.  相似文献   

Low‐frequency heliographic observations of the quiet Sun corona     

A.A. Stanislavsky  A.A. Koval  A.A. Konovalenko 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2013,334(10):1086-1092

We present new results of heliographic observations of quiet‐Sun radio emission fulfilled by the UTR‐2 radio telescope. The solar corona investigations have been made close to the last solar minimum (Cycle 23) in the late August and early September of 2010 by means of the two‐dimensional heliograph within 16.5–33 MHz. Moreover, the UTR‐2 radio telescope was used also as an 1‐D heliograph for one‐dimensional scanning of the Sun at the beginning of September 2010 as well as in short‐time observational campaigns in April and August of 2012. The average values of integral flux density of the undisturbed Sun continuum emission at different frequencies have been found. Using the data, we have determined the spectral index of quiet‐Sun radio emission in the range 16.5–200 MHz. It is equal to –2.1±0.1. The brightness distribution maps of outer solar corona at frequencies 20.0 MHz and 26.0 MHz have been obtained. The angular sizes of radio Sun were estimated. It is found that the solar corona at these frequencies is stretched‐out along equatorial direction. The coefficient of corona ellipticity varies slightly during above period. Its mean magnitudes are equal to ≈ 0.75 and ≈ 0.73 at 20.0 MHz and 26.0 MHz, respectively. The presented results for continuum emission of solar corona conform with being ones at higher frequencies. (© 2013 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

A Method to Calculate Inclination Function with Jacobi Polynomials     

《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2013,37(3):315-327

In this paper, a method to calculate the inclination function with Jacobi polynomials is studied, the formulation of this method is very simple, it needs not to concern about whether k and l have the same parity, and to calcu- late the non-integral factorials, nor to concern about the conversion between the case of k < 0 and the case of k ≥ 0, and the recurrent formula can be the stan- dard recurrent formula for Jacobi polynomials. In addition, its computational accuracy and applicable order-numbers are equivalent to those of the Gooding method, but its calculating time is shorter than that of the Gooding method for 9%.  相似文献   

Two Methods for Deriving the Recursion Formula of Inclination Function     

Wu Lian-da  Wang Hong-bo 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2013

Two kinds of recursion relations of hypergeometric series were derived, and hereby the Gooding's recursion formula of inclination function. In addition, it was demonstrated that this recursion formula can be derived also on the basis of the recursion relation of Jacobi polynomials. Comparing with the hypergeometric series, the recursion process based on the Jacobi polynomials is much simpler, indicating that the Gooding's method is the recursion of Jacobi polynomials in essence.  相似文献   

The Bootstrap Estimation of the Accuracy of Preliminary Orbit Determination     

Wang Xin 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2013

From the point of view of the non-parametric statistics, a general estimation method of the accuracy and con?dence interval of preliminary orbit determination is proposed for the occasion without any other information but observational data. Based on the bootstrap method, the estimation relies only on the observational data and does not require the precise orbit determination as a reference, or the assumption of normal distribution of observational errors. Numerical experiments show that this method is very simple in implementa- tion, and may serve as an easy accuracy evaluation for the preliminary orbit determination and for the follow-up employments.  相似文献