Factors Limiting the Forecast Skill of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation in a Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Model     

Zheng HE  Pangchi HSU  Xiangwen LIU  Tongwen WU  Yingxia GAO 《大气科学进展》2019,36(1):104-118

In this study,we evaluate the forecast skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal(S2S)prediction model of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO).We also discuss the key factors that inhibit the BSISO forecast skill in this model.Based on the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC)of the BSISO index,defined by the first two EOF modes of outgoing longwave radiation and 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies over the Asian monsoon region,we found that the hindcast skill degraded as the lead time increased.The ACC dropped to below 0.5for lead times of 11 days and longer when the predicted BSISO showed weakened strength and insignificant northward propagation.To identify what causes the weakened forecast skill of BSISO at the forecast lead time of 11 days,we diagnosed the main mechanisms responsible for the BSISO northward propagation.The same analysis was also carried out using the observations and the outputs of the four-day forecast lead that successfully predicted the observed northward-propagating BSISO.We found that the lack of northward propagation at the 11-day forecast lead was due to insufficient increases in low-level cyclonic vorticity,moistening and warm temperature anomalies to the north of the convection,which were induced by the interaction between background mean flows and BSISO-related anomalous fields.The BCC S2S model can predict the background monsoon circulations,such as the low-level southerly and the northerly and easterly vertical shears,but has limited capability in forecasting the distributions of circulation and moisture anomalies.  相似文献   

Transportation Part II     

《The Journal of geography》2012,111(4):150-162

Abstract

This article presents research on evaluating problem-based learning using GIS technology in a Singapore secondary school. A quasi-experimental research design was carried to test the PBL pedagogy (PBL-GIS) with an experimental group of students and compare their learning outcomes with a control group who were exposed to PBL but not GIS. The results show significant differences in the learning outcomes between the two groups. Specifically, students in the control group show more memorization skill while students in the experimental group demonstrate more analytical and evaluation skills. The conclusion is that learning with PBL-GIS pedagogy can result in higher-order learning outcomes.  相似文献   

基于全球转移的乐器制造业价值链空间分布——以钢琴制造业为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱华友  刘金俭 《世界地理研究》2012,(1):93-99

作为一个发展成熟的全球性产业,乐器制造业也正经历着快速的发展和演变。鉴于作为乐器之王的钢琴在乐器中的地位,本文以钢琴为例,研究全球乐器产业的转移及价值活动分布。研究认为,钢琴制造业了5次全球转移,即西欧内部的转移、由欧洲向美国的转移、由美国向西欧和日本的转移、由日本向东亚的转移和由韩国向东亚的转移,形成了当前的全球价值分布格局,即全球钢琴制造业价值量分布整体上呈现阶梯状分布的格局,以欧美为第一阶梯,日本和韩国为第二阶梯,中国为第三阶梯。在研发、核心产品设计及品牌等的核心竞争力上表现更是如此。基于上述研究,论文最后对我国的乐器制造业发展提出了一些思考。  相似文献   

气象因素异常指数对我国典型工业产业的影响研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴先华  李廉水  郭际  曹玲  马廷淮 《气象》2008,34(11):74-83

为了研究气象因素对我国典型工业产业的影响状况,通过整理1999-2006年每日4个时次的气象因素如气温、风速、相对湿度、气压和降水等数据,构造了气象异常值和异常度指数,并收集了同时期我国6个典型的工业产业的销售收入、资本投入和劳动力投入等月份数据,利用科布-道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)生产函数模型,分析了这些气象异常指数对我国典型工业产业的影响及弹性,做了对比分析,得到了有启示意义的结论,最后指出了研究的不足及未来进一步研究的方向.  相似文献   

Systematic errors in the medium range prediction of the Asian summer monsoon circulation     

U. C. Mohanty  K. J. Ramesh 《Journal of Earth System Science》1995,104(1):49-77

The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988). Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system. Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.  相似文献   

Quantitative precipitation forecasting over Narmada Catchment     

K Krishna Kumar  M K Soman 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(2):313-328

Quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) has been attempted over the Narmada Catchment following a statistical approach. The catchment has been divided into five sub-regions for the development of QPF models with a maximum lead-time of 24 hours. For this purpose the data of daily rainfall from 56 raingauge stations, twice daily observations on different surface meteorological parameters from 28 meteorological observatories and upper air data from 11 aerological stations for the nine monsoon seasons of 1972–1980 have been utilized. The horizontal divergence, relative vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture divergence are computed using the kinematic method at different pressure levels and used as independent variables along with the rainfall and surface meteorological parameters. Multiple linear regression equations have been developed using the stepwise procedure separately with actual and square root and log-transformed rainfall using 8-year data (1972–1979). When these equations were verified with an independent data for the monsoon season of 1980, it was found that the transformed rainfall equations fared much better compared to the actual rainfall equations. The performance of the forecasts of QPF model compared to the climatological and persistence forecasts has been assessed by computing the verification scores using the forecasts for the monsoon season of 1980.  相似文献   

A note on the performance of climatic forecasts for Asia based on the periodic portion of the data: 1986–1987     

Reid A. Bryson  Edward J. Hopkins 《Journal of Earth System Science》1993,102(1):105-112

Between 1973 and 1986 a group at the University of Wisconsin worked on the use of the periodic portion of climatic time series with the aim of exploring the potential for year-or-more in advance forecasting. This paper reports on the real time verification of the last sets of forecasts made by the group. From spectra of temperature and cube-rooted precipitation the dominant frequencies were chosen. These were usually related to tidal frequencies. A Fourier series of these dominant terms was then fitted to the dependent data set and future values calculated. These were analyzed for forecast skill, and the skillful Fourier series retained. Real time forecasts were then made. Verification shows a low probability that the forecast skills were obtained by chance. It is suggested that the periodic term might be a useful addition to more standard approaches to long range forecasting.  相似文献   

"支农70-2"电测仪锌汞电池充电器的设计与制作     

王意超  王路 《地下水》2003,25(1):46-46,51

“支农70-2”型电侧仪一直是基层水利单位进行地面电法找水和电测井的仪器之一。为解决该仪器内所用“锌汞电池”因电电压下降需要更换又难以购买的问题,笔者设计并制作出一种可给锌汞电池充电器,现撰文将其基本原理、线路结核、元件选用及制作方法作以介绍。  相似文献   

A new way to predict forecast skill   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

TAN Jiqing  XIE Zhenghui  JI Liren 《大气科学进展》2003,20(5):837-841

Forecast skill (Anomaly Correlated Coefficient, ACC) is a quantity to show the forecast quality of the products of numerical weather forecasting models. Predicting forecast skill, which is the foundation of ensemble forecasting, means submitting products to predict their forecast quality before they are used.Checking the reason is to understand the predictability for the real cases. This kind of forecasting service has been put into operational use by statistical methods previously at the National Meteorological Center (NMC), USA (now called the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)) and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). However, this kind of service is far from satisfactory because only a single variable is used with the statistical method. In this paper, a new way based on the Grey Control Theory with multiple predictors to predict forecast skill of forecast products of the T42L9 of the NMC, China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is introduced. The results show: (1) The correlation coefficients between “forecasted“ and real forecast skill range from 0.56 to 0.7 at different seasons during the two-year period. (2) The grey forecasting model GM(1,8) forecasts successfully the high peaks, the increasing or decreasing tendency, and the turning points of the change of forecast skill of cases from 5 January 1990 to 29 February 1992.  相似文献   

Re-scaling collective bargaining: union responses to restructuring in the North American auto industry   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

John Holmes 《Geoforum》2004,35(1):9-21

Historically, political struggles to define the geographical scale at which labour relations and collective bargaining will be conducted have been of crucial significance to the labour movement. Today, workers and their unions face very difficult challenges. In many manufacturing industries changes in the organizational structure of production at different geographical scales have undermined the effectiveness of the organizing and collective bargaining strategies associated with traditional industrial unionism. This paper focuses on collective bargaining strategies developed by North American autoworkers’ unions to respond to the extensive restructuring of the automotive industry that took place during the 1990s. These strategies include innovations in the structure and content of collective bargaining and efforts to redefine the scale at which collective bargaining takes place. Following a brief discussion of the challenge posed by the integration of Mexico into a continent-wide production system, the analysis focuses on the strategies devised by the Canadian Auto Workers (CAW) union during the 1996 and 1999 rounds of collective bargaining to address issues raised by outsourcing and modular manufacturing. With outsourcing, the automakers are not so much eliminating jobs as they are deciding who gets to do them, at what price, and under what working conditions. With modular manufacturing, the organizational boundaries between firms are blurring and the terms and conditions of work in one firm arguably are becoming dependent upon management decisions made in another firm. The CAW’s response has been to develop new collective bargaining strategies including the concepts of ‘work ownership’ and ‘satellite bargaining’ which involves redefining the traditional geographical extent of the bargaining unit. While the empirical focus is on the North American automobile industry, the general issues related to the re-scaling of production, and especially outsourcing and modular manufacturing, are common across a range of manufacturing industries.  相似文献