黄渤海底层盐度预报方法的研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王宗山  徐伯昌  孙卫阳  邹娥梅  李繁华 《海洋与湖沼》1993,24(6):592-598

根据二维流体动力学方程和深度平均盐度扩散方程在河口径流量以及蒸发和降水之差为已知情况下构成的闭合方程组,预报出深度平均盐度,然后利用底层盐度与深度平均盐度、水深和时间(月)之间的经验关系,给出底层盐度的二维预报。为了检验试报结果的可靠性,文中将黄渤海底层盐度的试报结果(1979年7月11日,时效为3d)与标准断面观测资料(7月4—14日观测,124.5°E以西,共104站)作一粗略比较。比较表明,试报结果与实测值的相关系数为0.96,均方误差为α=0.26,绝对误差小于0.2和0.3的站数分别占总站数的63.5％和77.0％,而总均绝差为0.19。由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的。  相似文献   

Viability theory for an ecosystem approach to fisheries   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Cury  Philippe M.; Mullon  Christian; Garcia  Serge M.; Shannon  Lynne J. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(3):577-584

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Grey Prediction of Siltation in North Channel of Yangtze Estuary     

Yu Cimei Shanghai Waterways Design & Research Institute  Shanghai 《中国海洋工程》1994,(2)

-The North Channel in the Yangtze Estuary is one of sea-leading waterways of Shanghai Harbour, in which yearly dredging volume reaches over ten million cubic meters, and it tends to increase year by year. Based on the channel regime similarity and through the relational grade, a GM (2, 1) is set up. It reveals the course of development of channel regime similarity under the action of various factors, and predicts the siltation volume in the nearest future which is the basis of dredging planning for relevant dredging departments.  相似文献   

Prediction of Load Carrying Capacity of Corroded Reinforced Concrete Beam     

范颖芳  周晶冯新 《中国海洋工程》2004,18(1):107-118

A novel method for prediction of the load carrying capacity of a corroded reinforced concrete beam (CRCB) is presented in the paper. Nine reinforced concrete beams, which had been working in an aggressive environment for more than 10 years, were tested in the laboratory. Comprehensive tests, including flexural test, strength test for corroded concrete and rusty rebar, and pullout test for bond strength between concrete and rebar, were condueted. The flexural test results of CRCBs reveal that the distribution of surface cracks on the beams shows a fractal behavior. The relationship between the fractal dimensions and mechanical properties of CRCBs is then studied. A prediction model based on artificial neural network (ANN) is established by the use of the fractal dimension as the corrosion index, together with the basic intbrmation of the beam. The validity of the prediction model is demonstrated through the experimental data, and satisfactory resuits are achieved.  相似文献   

台风移速突变的诊断分析及路径预报     

仲荣根 《海洋湖沼通报》1994,(2):149-154

本文利用台风移动方程对作用在台风上的各力进行了诊断分析：主要力是气压梯度力和地转偏向力，二者同量级，其他各力约小１－３个量级；当台风加速移动时，气压梯度力小于地转编向力；减速移动时，气压梯度力大于地转偏向力。用预报方程计算得到的台风路径与实际台风路径在趋势上近于一致，预报误差约为２００ｋｍ。  相似文献   

沉降监测多项式回归分析与神经网络预测     

田丰  文鸿雁  张静 《海洋测绘》2007,27(4):23-27

使用多项式和切比雪夫(Tchebyshev)多项式分别对沉降监测数据进行回归分析以预测未来沉降值,其中切比雪夫多项式的外推效果较好;应用前向BP神经网络对两种不同的单因子输入模式进行非线性函数逼近,并进行了不同采样步长的比较,实例表明将时间点作为网络的输入对沉降进行预测效果较好。  相似文献   

The Continuous Plankton Recorder: concepts and history, from Plankton Indicator to undulating recorders   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

P. C. Reid  J. M. Colebrook  J. B. L. Matthews  J. Aiken  Continuous Plankton Recorder Team 《Progress in Oceanography》2003,58(2-4):117

Alister Hardy conceived the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey in the 1920s as a means of mapping near-surface plankton in space and time, interpreting the changing fortunes of the fisheries and relating plankton changes to hydrometeorology and climatic change. The seed he planted has grown to become the most extensive long-term survey of marine organisms in the world and the breadth of his vision becomes ever more apparent. The survey has now run for over 70 years and its value increases with every passing decade. Operating from ‘ships of opportunity’ the machines used are robust, reliable and easy to handle. Wherever possible, all the sampling and analytical methods have not been changed to maintain the consistency of the time series. Computerisation and the development of new statistical approaches have increased our ability to handle the large quantities of information generated and enhance the sensitivity of the data analyses. This overview, based on almost 900 papers, recounts the various phases in the history of the survey. It starts with the Indicator Survey (1921–1934), the deployment of the first CPR on the Discovery Expedition (1924–1927) and the early CPR survey in the North Sea (1931–1939). The survey reopened in 1946 after the Second World War and expanded across the North Atlantic to North America from 1959. Taxonomic studies were initiated and an emphasis was placed on patterns of distribution, which were seen to reflect the varying oceanographic conditions. The years 1968–1976 saw further expansion with operations even in the American Great Lakes, publication of a Plankton Atlas and initial evidence for a downward trend in plankton biomass. At about this time electronic instrumentation was attached to CPRs to make additional measurements and work was started on the development of a new generation of undulating Continuous Plankton and Environmental Recorders (CPERs). In 1976 the survey moved to Plymouth. Scientific priorities in the UK changed in the subsequent decade and funding became more difficult to secure even though some of the CPR papers being published at the time are now regarded as classics in plankton ecology. In 1988 the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) decided to close the survey. An international rescue operation led to the creation of the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science (SAHFOS) in 1990, which has continued with consortium funding from a number of countries, and from 1999 again included NERC. The scientific rationale of the survey has gained credibility as concern over climate change and other anthropogenic effects has grown and as the key role that plankton plays as an indicator of large-scale environmental conditions becomes ever more apparent. Recently, the survey became an integral component of the Global Ocean Observation System (GOOS) and expanded into the North Pacific. It plays a complementary role in many large international and multidisciplinary projects and is providing inspiration, advice and support to daughter surveys elsewhere in the world. At the start of a new millennium, Hardy’s vision from the 1920s is a powerful driving force not just in international biological oceanography, but in global environmental science.  相似文献   

Theory and Practice of Soft Clay Engineering     

Wei Rulong Prof. Senior Engineer  Geotechnical Engineering Department  Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute  Nanjing 《中国海洋工程》1994,(1)

-The shear strength and deformation properties of soft clay are discussed first. Then some methods for predicting the performance of soft clay foundation are proposed. Finally, case histories are presented to illustrate some discussed aspects of soft clay.  相似文献   

台湾海峡及其西边地区正常地震动态及危险性特征   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

柯龙生  林世敏 《台湾海峡》1994,13(2):190-197

本文从地震的时，空分布特征，区域应力场动态，能量释放方式，ｂ值及震群特征６个方面研究了台湾海峡及其西边地区地震活动的正常动态及异常特征。结果表明，具有前兆意义的变化模式表现为区域地震活动在时间，空间及功能方面的有序性变化，即：（ａ）地震空间分布由分散转为集中，形成条带或空区；（ｂ）断裂活动由多组转为单一，应力场趋向一致；（display status  相似文献   

A Study on Hydroelastic Response of Box-Type Very Large Floating Structures     

王志军  李润培  舒志 《中国海洋工程》2001,(3):345-354

The application of very large floating structure (VLFS) to the utilization of ocean space and exploitation of ocean resources has become one of the issues of great interest in international ocean engineering field. Owing to the advantage of simplicity in structure and low cost of construction and maintenance, box-type VLFS can be used in the calm water area near the coast as the structure configuration of floating airport. In this paper, a 3D linear hydroelastic theory is used to study the dynamic response of box-type VLFS in sinusoidal regular waves. A beam model and a 3D FEM model are respectively employed to describe the dynamic characteristics of the box-type structure in vacuum. A hydrodynamic model (3D potential theory of flexible body) is applied to investigate the effect of different dry models on the hydroelastic response of box-type structure. Based on the calculation of hydroelastic response in regular waves, the rigid body motion displacement, flexible deflection, and the short term and long  相似文献