Parameterization of Sheared Entrainment in a Well-developed CBL.Part Ⅱ:A Simple Model for Predicting the Growth Rate of the CBL   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peng Liu  Jianning Sun  Lidu Shen 《大气科学进展》2016,33(10):1185-1198

Following the parameterization of sheared entrainment obtained in the companion paper, Liu et al. (2016), the present study aims to further investigate the characteristics of entrainment, and develop a simple model for predicting the growth rate of a well-developed and sheared CBL. The relative stratification, defined as the ratio of the stratification in the free atmosphere to that in the entrainment zone, is found to be a function of entrainment flux ratio (A _e). This leads to a simple expression of the entrainment rate, in which A _e needs to be parameterized. According to the results in Liu et al. (2016), A _e can be simply expressed as the ratio of the convective velocity scale in the sheared CBL to that in the shear-free CBL. The parameterization of the convective velocity scale in the sheared CBL is obtained by analytically solving the bulk model with several assumptions and approximations. Results indicate that the entrainment process is influenced by the dynamic effect, the interaction between mean shear and environmental stratification, and one other term that includes the Coriolis effect. These three parameterizations constitute a simple model for predicting the growth rate of a well-developed and sheared CBL. This model is validated by outputs of LESs, and the results show that it performs satisfactorily. Compared with bulk models, this model does not need to solve a set of equations for the CBL. It is more convenient to apply in numerical models.  相似文献   

Parameterization of sheared entrainment in a well-developed CBL. Part I: Evaluation of the scheme through large-eddy simulations     

Peng Liu  Jianning Sun  Lidu Shen 《大气科学进展》2016,33(10):1171-1184

The entrainment flux ratio A _e and the inversion layer (IL) thickness are two key parameters in a mixed layer model. A _e is defined as the ratio of the entrainment heat flux at the mixed layer top to the surface heat flux. The IL is the layer between the mixed layer and the free atmosphere. In this study, a parameterization of A _e is derived from the TKE budget in the firstorder model for a well-developed CBL under the condition of linearly sheared geostrophic velocity with a zero value at the surface. It is also appropriate for a CBL under the condition of geostrophic velocity remaining constant with height. LESs are conducted under the above two conditions to determine the coefficients in the parameterization scheme. Results suggest that about 43% of the shear-produced TKE in the IL is available for entrainment, while the shear-produced TKE in the mixed layer and surface layer have little effect on entrainment. Based on this scheme, a new scale of convective turbulence velocity is proposed and applied to parameterize the IL thickness. The LES outputs for the CBLs under the condition of linearly sheared geostrophic velocity with a non-zero surface value are used to verify the performance of the parameterization scheme. It is found that the parameterized A _e and IL thickness agree well with the LES outputs.  相似文献   

Flood susceptibility mapping using frequency ratio and weights-of-evidence models in the Golastan Province,Iran     

Omid Rahmati  Hamid Reza Pourghasemi  Hossein Zeinivand 《国际地球制图》2016,31(1):42-70

Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters with socio-economic and environmental consequences. Thus, comprehensive flood management is essential to reduce the flood effects on human lives and livelihoods. The main goal of this study was to investigate the application of the frequency ratio (FR) and weights-of-evidence (WofE) models for flood susceptibility mapping in the Golestan Province, Iran. At first, a flood inventory map was prepared using Iranian Water Resources Department and extensive field surveys. In total, 144 flood locations were identified in the study area. Of these, 101 (70%) floods were randomly selected as training data and the remaining 43 (30%) cases were used for the validation purposes. In the next step, flood conditioning factors such as lithology, land-use, distance from rivers, soil texture, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI) and altitude were prepared from the spatial database. Subsequently, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn for produced flood susceptibility maps and the area under the curves (AUCs) was computed. The final results indicated that the FR (AUC = 76.47%) and WofE (AUC = 74.74%) models have almost similar and reasonable results. Therefore, these flood susceptibility maps can be useful for researchers and planner in flood mitigation strategies.  相似文献   

基于Matlab小波去噪的研究方法     

彭广民  陈婷 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(7):24-26

阐述了硬阀值法、软阀值法和半软阀值法去噪的原理及其算法的实现,针对传统小波去噪后,图像的部分细节丢失、边缘模糊等问题,提出一种改进半软阀值的计算方法。实验结果表明,改进的方法具有更好的去噪效果。  相似文献   

MODES系统对贵州月气温、降水预测初步评估     

白慧  高辉 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(5):58-63

通过对2013年1月—2015年6月(MODES)发布的最优月预测产品在贵州省月平均气温距平和降水距平百分率的预测检验评估,发现MODES对全省平均气温有较好的预报,分析时段内预测与实况的相关系数为0.24,距平同号率为65.5%,且对气温偏高预测的可参考性高于其对气温偏低的预测。相比于气温,MODES对降水预测能力较弱,参考性也相对较低,其中对贵州全省平均降水偏多趋势的预测技巧要优于对全省平均偏少趋势的预报技巧。逐站分析显示,MODES对贵州气温预测效果较好的地区在西部、北部和东部,对降水偏多的预测效果较好的地区位于除西北部和北部边缘地区外的其余大部地区。通过对MODES与预报员综合预报的结果评估发现,MODES月预测总体效果较预报员好,且稳定性高于预报员,可为预报员提供参考信息。  相似文献   

天山地区水汽再循环量化研究     

姚俊强 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2016,10(5):37-43

利用传统气候学的Brubaker二元模型和降水同位素平衡模型定量研究了新疆天山地区水汽再循环特征。结果表明:(1)气候学角度,天山地区水汽再循环率为9.32%。当地蒸发的水汽形成的降水量为41.8 mm,外来水汽输送到山区形成的降水量为407.2 mm;(2)同位素水汽氘盈余为精细化的分析水汽再循环提供了新的思路,进一步证实天山地区水汽主要来自于西风带的水汽输送,而乌鲁木齐站平均再循环水汽仅占到8%。随着海拔的增加,水汽再循环率逐渐下降,在海拔2000 m以上的水汽再循环可以忽略不计。在西风带关键水汽输送路径建立降水同位素观测断面,使两种方法相结合,共同研究水汽的来源和路径问题,是下一步需要关注的问题。  相似文献   

Rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility assessment at the Chongren area (China) using frequency ratio,certainty factor,and index of entropy   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Haoyuan Hong  Chong Xu  Ahmed M. Youssef  Biswajeet Pradhan  Dieu Tien Bui 《国际地球制图》2017,32(2):139-154

The main objective of the study was to evaluate and compare the overall performance of three methods, frequency ratio (FR), certainty factor (CF) and index of entropy (IOE), for rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility mapping at the Chongren area (China) using geographic information system and remote sensing. First, a landslide inventory map for the study area was constructed from field surveys and interpretations of aerial photographs. Second, 15 landslide-related factors such as elevation, slope, aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, stream power index, sediment transport index, topographic wetness index, distance to faults, distance to rivers, distance to roads, landuse, NDVI, lithology and rainfall were prepared for the landslide susceptibility modelling. Using these data, three landslide susceptibility models were constructed using FR, CF and IOE. Finally, these models were validated and compared using known landslide locations and the receiver operating characteristics curve. The result shows that all the models perform well on both the training and validation data. The area under the curve showed that the goodness-of-fit with the training data is 79.12, 80.34 and 80.42% for FR, CF and IOE whereas the prediction power is 80.14, 81.58 and 81.73%, for FR, CF and IOE, respectively. The result of this study may be useful for local government management and land use planning.  相似文献   

降雪含水比研究进展   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

崔锦  周晓珊  阎琦  张爱忠  李得勤  杨阳 《气象》2017,43(6):735-744

降雪深度预报与定量降水预报(QPF)一样是冬季天气预报最重要的业务之一,而降雪含水比是降雪深度预报中所必须的重要参数,国外一般多将其称为snow-to-liquid ratio(SLR)。本文回顾了过去几十年来国内外在SLR的变化特征、影响因素等方面的主要研究进展,并对其预报技术和方法进行了总结和比较。研究表明:SLR具有明显的时间变化,并且存在季节和空间分布差异;大气温度和相对湿度是影响SLR的两个最重要气象因子,气压、垂直运动等气象因素,以及地表风、积雪自重、太阳辐射和积雪融化也会不同程度地影响SLR;随着预报技术的发展,SLR的预报方法可概括为气候学的、统计学的和基于物理基础的三类预报方法,气候学方法过于简单化,统计学方法的应用提高了SLR的预报能力,但仍无法摆脱统计方法自身的缺陷,比较而言,基于数值模式的瞬时预报更符合未来雪深预报业务的精细化发展趋势;目前,国内降雪深度观测资料较少、观测频率较低,有效开展地面降雪和探空加密观测,解决观测资料不足是今后SLR研究中亟待解决的问题;基于数值天气预报业务模式,探索气象因子对SLR的影响机理,建立适合我国冬季天气预报业务需求的降雪预报系统是未来的发展方向。  相似文献   

基于第二次冰川编目数据的中国冰川高度结构特征分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

张鲜鹤  王欣  刘时银  郭万钦  魏俊锋 《地理学报》2017,72(3):397-406

主要基于第二次中国冰川编目数据,计算和分析中国西部各个山脉冰川面积随高度分布特征、冰川平衡线高度场的分布规律和积累区比率的分布特征。结果表明：① 各个山脉冰川面积随高度分布呈近似正态分布,冰川最大面积所占总面积的百分比与冰川分布高度差的比值可以作为描述冰川面积随高度分布的形状参数;② 平衡线高度的分布特征受气候和地形影响,由南向北逐渐降低,由东向西逐渐升高;西北和南部高大山脉边缘比较密集,青藏高原内部比较稀疏。③ 冰川积累区比率的分布特征与水汽、地形和物理冰川属性有关。各大山脉外侧和海洋型冰川区积累区比率较小（<0.5）,山脉内侧及高原内陆地区和极大陆型冰川区的积累区比率较大（>0.7）。  相似文献   

线性/非线性光谱混合模型估算白刺灌丛植被覆盖度     

姬翠翠  贾永红  李晓松  王金英 《遥感学报》2016,20(6):1402-1412

及时监测干旱与半干旱区光合/非光合植被覆盖度时空变化,可以为指导荒漠化防治工程及植被衰退机制研究提供重要信息。本文以甘肃民勤典型植被白刺灌丛为研究对象,通过地面控制性光谱实验获取混合光谱、端元光谱与丰度信息,开展线性与非线性光谱混合模型(包括核函数非线性和双线性混合模型)估算光合和非光合植被覆盖度的对比研究,采用全限制最小二乘法进行模型解混,分别获取各样本数据中各类端元丰度及其精度信息,通过模型分解的均方根误差(RMSE)与地面验证精度确定用于光合和非光合植被覆盖度估算的最佳光谱混合模型,其中参考端元丰度采用神经网络(NNC)分类算法对数字影像进行分类获取。结果表明:(1)引入阴影端元的四端元模型相对于传统的三端元模型(光合/非光合植被与裸土)能有效提高光谱解混的精度,并提高光合和非光合植被覆盖度估算精度;(2)对白刺灌丛来说,光合植被、非光合植被、裸土及阴影间多重散射混合效应存在,但混合效应不够显著;考虑非线性参数的核函数非线性光谱混合模型表现略低于线性光谱混合模型,因此非线性光谱混合模型在估算白刺灌丛光合和非光合植被覆盖度时相对于线性光谱混合模型没有明显优势;(3)基于光合/非光合植被、裸土与阴影四端元的线性光谱混合模型可以实现白刺灌丛光合和非光合植被覆盖度的准确估算,光合植被覆盖度估算RMSE为0.11 77,非光合植被覆盖度估算RMSE为0.0835。  相似文献