基于不确定性分析框架的动态环状河网水质模型——以温州市温瑞塘河为例   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

徐一剑  曾思育  张天柱 《水科学进展》2005,16(4):574-580

以温州市温瑞塘河为背景,基于不确定性分析的框架,开发了动态环状河网水质模型。用HSY(Hornberger,Spear and Young)算法作水质参数的不确定性分析,求得模型参数的空间分布,从而提高模型使用的可靠性、降低决策的风险度。模型由水量子模型及水质子模型两部分组成:水量子模型采用圣维南方程并用四级解法求解;水质子模型采用CSTR(Continuously Stirred Tank Reactor)模型的机理,并结合环状河网特征作了修正,由于只需解常微分方程,因而避免了矩阵求解,显著提高了计算效率,使得用HSY算法进行不确定性分析成为可能。模型选取温州市温瑞塘河流域的鹿城区河网进行了首次应用,用HSY算法率定水质参数并讨论了参数的不确定性。对参数率定结果进行验证,结果比较理想。最后简要讨论了参数不确定性传递。  相似文献   

叶尔羌河冰川阻塞性洪水发生的气象因素     

刘皑国 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2005,28(2):13-15

2002年8月12日，叶尔羌河再次发生因高原冰川阻塞形成的洪水。本文对叶尔羌河历次高原冰川阻塞性洪水的成因以及与气象的关系做了较详尽的分析，并提出了从气象角度预报该类型洪水的方法和利用卫星遥感技术对冰川阻塞湖进行监测的建议，期望对叶尔羌河今后的防洪工作有一些指导意义。  相似文献   

南疆塔里木河流域生态环境近期变化的成因解释   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：3  

徐羹慧 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2005,28(2):28-31

南疆塔里木河流域的生态环境已引起社会和科技界广泛注意。本文分析了该地区生态环境近期变化的6个主要特点，并用自然和人文社会学观点解释了变化的成因，提出气候变化是该极干旱区生态环境变化中最活跃的主要自然因素及其影响方式，但在人类主要活动地区盆地主体，人类活动对生态环境变化起着决定性的作用。  相似文献   

一次冰雹天气过程分析     

白惠星  王健 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2002,25(3):7-8

对奎玛流域一次冰雹天气的分析表明，在巴尔喀什湖低槽加强东移的环流背景下，低层水汽辐合、抬升启动和层结不稳定有利于该地区强对流的发生、发展，中尺度强对流云团的形成、发展是产生这次冰雹天气的主要原因。  相似文献   

岷江上游干扰岸坡主要表生地质灾害分布特征及成因浅析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

蒋良文  王士天等 《地质灾害与环境保护》2002,13(1):13-17

岷江上游地处我国著名的南北向地震带的中段，因其特定的地质环境导致区内表生地质灾害极为严重。通过对岷江上游（汶川以上）河段的崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等表生地质灾害的调查研究，其分布沿岷江两岸具有明显的分段特征与河谷地貌分段基本一致，它们形成发展与特定地形地貌、易崩滑或软弱地层、特殊的构造部位、降雨等密切相关。  相似文献   

雷达遥感在澜沧江中下游地区锰矿调查评价中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

王郁  杨景元 《地质找矿论丛》2002,17(4):271-276

澜沧江吓游地区地处热带-亚热带，植被及第四系覆盖严重，应用雷达遥感技术可以初步揭露植覆盖，利用SAR图像识别主要岩石类型和构造形式，并圈定了主要含锰岩系，进而确定了成锰有利地段。  相似文献   

东昆仑东段中更新世以来的成山作用及其动力转换   总被引：6，自引：6，他引：6  

王国灿  侯光久等 《地球科学》2002,27(1):4-12

对东昆仑造山带东段第四纪构造及与地貌关系的分析表明，现代山盆相间的地貌格局成型于中更新世，且在中更新世以来发生了多次构造变形体制的转换。根据布青山北部查干额热格地区第四系剖面的构造、地层时代及地层与构造关系的分析表明，中更新世时期为伸展构造体制，昆仑山内部开始发生了差异隆升，布青山开始崛起。中更新世末应力体制发生急剧变化，由伸展体制转为收缩事件，又急速转为伸展构造体系，短暂的收缩事件造成了中更新世冲洪积层的褶皱，随后的伸展则导致了影响深刻的向北依次断落的阶地状正断层系统。晚更新世应力体系再度发生重大转换，伸展正断层体系被左旋走滑运动体系所代替，并一直延续至今。中更新世以来多次隆升构造变形体制的转换说明东昆仑地区的成山过程受控于多种动力背景，而非单一的挤压抬升。隆升构造变形体系的确定及其时代约束为深入刻划青藏高原东北缘隆升作用的动力过程提供了重要信息。  相似文献   

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data     

Fengjun Zhang  Albert C. Reynolds  Dean S. Oliver 《Mathematical Geology》2002,34(6):715-742

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.  相似文献   

Quantitative analysis of variations in depositional sequence thickness from submarine channel levees   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Kenneth I. Skene  David J. W. Piper†  Paul S. Hill 《Sedimentology》2002,49(6):1411-1430

Abstract Thickness variations across‐levee and downchannel in acoustically defined depositional sequences from six submarine channel‐levee systems show consistent and quantifiable patterns. The thickness of depositional sequences perpendicular to the channel trend, i.e. across the levee, decreases exponentially, as characterized by a spatial decay constant, k. Similarly, the thickness of sediment at the levee crest decreases exponentially down the upper reaches of submarine channels and can be characterized by a second spatial decay constant, λ. The inverse of these decay constants has units of length and defines depositional length scales such that k^?1 is a measure of levee width and λ^?1 is a measure of levee length. Quantification of levee architecture in this way allowed investigation of relationships between levee architecture and channel dimensions. It was found that these measures of levee e‐folding width and levee e‐folding length are directly related to channel width and relief. The dimensions of channels and levees are thus intimately related, thereby limiting the range of potential channel‐levee morphologies, regardless of allocyclic forcing. A simple sediment budget model relates the product of the levee e‐folding width and e‐folding length to through‐channel volume discharge. A classification system based on the quantitative downchannel behaviour of levee architecture allows identification of a ‘mid‐channel’ reach, where sediment is passively transferred from the through‐channel flow to the levees as an overspilling flow. Downstream from this reach, the channel gradually looses its control on guiding turbidity currents, and the resulting flow can be considered as an unconfined or spreading flow.  相似文献   

Iron colloids/organic matter associated transport of major and trace elements in small boreal rivers and their estuaries (NW Russia)     

O. S. Pokrovsky  J. Schott 《Chemical Geology》2002,190(1-4):141-179

The chemical status of major and trace elements (TE) in various boreal small rivers and watershed has been investigated along a 1500-km transect of NW Russia. Samples were filtered in the field through a progressively decreasing pore size (5, 0.8 and 0.22 μm; 100, 10, and 1 kD) using a frontal filtration technique. All major and trace elements and organic carbon (OC) were measured in filtrates and ultrafiltrates. Most rivers exhibit high concentration of dissolved iron (0.2–4 mg/l), OC (10–30 mg/l) and significant amounts of trace elements usually considered as immobile in weathering processes (Ti, Zr, Th, Al, Ga, Y, REE, V, Pb). In (ultra)filtrates, Fe and OC are poorly correlated: iron concentration gradually decreases upon filtration from 5 μm to 1 kD whereas the major part of OC is concentrated in the <1–10 kD fraction. This reveals the presence of two pools of colloids composed of organic-rich and Fe-rich particles. According to their behavior during filtration and association with these two types of colloids, three groups of elements can be distinguished: (i) species that are not affected by ultrafiltration and are present in the form of true dissolved inorganic species (Ca, Mg, Li, Na, K, Sr, Ba, Rb, Cs, Si, B, As, Sb, Mo) or weak organic complexes (Ca, Mg, Sr, Ba), (ii) elements present in the fraction smaller than 1–10 kD prone to form inorganic or organic complexes (Mn, Co, Ni, Zn, Cu, Cd, and, for some rivers, Pb, Cr, Y, HREE, U), and (iii) elements strongly associated with colloidal iron in all ultrafiltrates (P, Al, Ga, REE, Pb, V, Cr, W, Ti, Ge, Zr, Th, U). Based on size fractionation results and taking into account the nominal pore size for membranes, an estimation of the effective surface area of Fe colloids was performed. Although the total amount of available surface sites on iron colloids (i.e., 1–10 μM) is enough to accommodate the nanomolar concentrations of dissolved trace elements, very poor correlation between TE and surface sites concentrations was observed in filtrates and ultrafiltrates. This strongly suggests a preferential transport of TE as coprecipitates with iron oxy(hydr)oxides. These colloids can be formed on redox boundaries by precipitation of Fe(III) from inflowing Fe(II)/TE-rich anoxic ground waters when they meet well-oxygenated surface waters. Dissolved organic matter stabilizes these colloids and prevents their aggregation and coagulation. Estuarine behavior of several trace elements was studied for two small iron- and organic-rich rivers. While Si, Sr, Ba, Rb, and Cs show a clear conservative behavior during mixing of freshwaters with the White sea, Al, Pb and REE are scavenged with iron during coagulation of Fe hydroxide colloids.  相似文献