地震活动时间分布不均匀结构的多尺度检验分析          下载免费PDF全文

陈时军  贾庆华  马丽 《地震学报》2005,27(5):532-542

利用ldquo;非零导数显著性rdquo;检验方法, 分析了中国大陆东西部地区及青藏高原、新疆、东北、华北、华南以及台湾构造区内地震活动广义应变释放时间分布的不均匀结构. 结果表明,当广义地震应变指数eta;取较小值时,新疆、华南、东北以及台湾构造区地震活动自1970年以来总体上呈长期增强趋势, 而青藏高原与华北构造区则呈长期减弱的态势;在较小的时间窗宽情况下,各构造区均存在多尺度成丛特征,显示出地震活动在一定的尺度层次下的强弱交替现象. 但当该eta;取较大值时,除青藏高原与台湾构造区在某些尺度时间窗宽内存在某些时段趋势性变化外,其它各构造区广义地震应变释放时间分布均无统计学意义上的显著变化.   相似文献   

Runoff Variation Law and Its Response to Climate Change in the Headstream Area of the Keriya River Basin,Xinjiang     

凌红波  张青青  史薇  徐海量 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2011,(6)

Based on the runoff and meteorological data of Langan(兰干) Hydrological Station from 1957 to 2009 in Keriya(克里雅) River,the periodicities,abrupt changes,and trends of climate factors and runoff were investigated by wavelet analysis and nonparametric test;then,the future change of the annual runoff was predicted by a periodic trend superposition model.In succession,the influencing volumes of climate change on the annual runoff were separated from the observation values of the an-nual runoff in Keriya River.The...  相似文献   

Matched block bootstrap for resampling multiseason hydrologic time series     

V. V. Srinivas  K. Srinivasan 《水文研究》2005,19(18):3659-3682

A nonparametric method for resampling multiseason hydrologic time series is presented. It is based on the idea of rank matching, for simulating univariate time series with strong and/or long‐range dependence. The rank matching rule suggests concatenating with higher likelihood those blocks that match at their ends. In the proposed method, termed ‘multiseason matched block bootstrap’, nonoverlapping within‐year blocks of hydrologic data (formed from the observed time series) are conditionally resampled using the rank matching rule. The effectiveness of the method in recovering various statistical attributes, including the dependence structure from finite samples generated from a known population, is demonstrated through a two‐level hypothetical Monte Carlo simulation experiment. The method offers enough flexibility to the modeller and is shown to be appropriate for modelling hydrologic data that display strong dependence, nonlinearity and/or multimodality in the time series depicting the hydrologic process. The method is shown to be more efficient than the nonparametric ‘k‐nearest neighbor bootstrap’ method in simulating the monthly streamflows that exhibit a complex dependence structure and bimodal marginal probability density. Even with short block sizes, this bootstrap method is able to predict the drought characteristics reasonably accurately. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Toward a general procedure for analysis of extreme random events in the earth sciences     

W. E. Bardsley 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(5):513-528

Engineering and scientific approaches to design magnitude estimation are briefly revisited. Some defense is offered for use of annual maxima in design as if they were variables from a common distribution. However, to assume any particular form of distribution tail beyond the largest data value is not justifiable, regardless of the degree of data support over the main body of the distribution. An alternative approach to the design problem is suggested through use of parameter-free nonparametric estimation using the kernel method. Some simulation results are presented which suggest that the parameter-free approach is worthy of further development. A particular advantage of nonparametric methods is that competing estimators can be checked against parametric distributions, leading to a progressive improvement in estimator accuracy.This paper was presented (by title) at Engineering Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987.  相似文献   

基于矢耳石形态分析的凤鲚(Coilia mystus) 群体识别研究     

于鑫  曹亮  南鸥  赵博  窦硕增 《海洋与湖沼》2013,44(3):768-774

以长江口、胶州湾、渤海湾和辽东湾4个地理群体的凤鲚(Coilia mystus)矢耳石样本为研究对象,采用形状指数和椭圆傅里叶系数分析相结合的方法研究了该4个凤鲚群体的矢耳石形态特征及差异性。方差分析结果表明,大部分形态变量存在显著的群体差异,引入协变量(耳石长)之后除形状因子外这种差异依然显著。基于协方差校正的判别分析只保留了耳石重量及9个傅里叶系数用于群体识别,而非参数检验的判别分析则保留了耳石重量、分形维数、环状度、矩形趋近率、圆度和19个傅里叶系数用于群体识别。相应地,基于非参检验的凤鲚群体的总体识别成功率(68.2%)明显高于协方差校正的判别分析结果(46.2%),表明前者比后者更能提高耳石形态分析的群体识别能力。  相似文献   

顾及系统误差的坐标转换方法研究     

周永领  黄其欢 《东北测绘》2014,(1):44-46

针对Bursa模型在坐标系转换时没有顾及局部变形和累积误差的问题,通过对坐标转换误差进行分析,本文提出将由此产生的系统误差看作非参数信号的半参数估计,采用半参数模型对某一区域坐标进行解算,并对检核点非参数分量进行推估,与Bursa模型进行比较,结果表明半参数模型能够有效地消除系统误差。并探讨了不同确定平滑因子α的方法对坐标转换精度影响,计算结果表明,在正则矩阵R相同情况下,不同平滑因子确定方法得到的坐标转换精度有所不同,但均优于Bursa模型转换精度。  相似文献   

Nonparametric streamflow simulation by wavelet or Fourier analysis     

M. BAYAZIT  B. ÖNÖZ  H. AKSOY 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):623-634

Abstract

Wavelet or Fourier analysis is proposed as an alternative nonparametric method to simulate streamflows. An observed series is decomposed into its components at various resolutions and then recombined randomly to generate synthetic series. The mean and standard deviation are perfectly reproduced and coefficient of skewness tends to zero as the number of simulations increases. Normalizing transforms can be used for skewed series. Autocorrelation coefficients and the dependence structure are better preserved when Fourier analysis is used, but the mean and variance remain constant when the simulated and observed series have the same length. Monthly as well as annual flows can be simulated by this technique as illustrated on some examples. Wavelet analysis should be preferred as it generates flow series that exhibit a wider range of required reservoir capacities.  相似文献   

Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach     

Alexandre Cunha Costa  Axel Bronstert  David Kneis 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):10-25

Abstract

Hydrological models are commonly used to perform real-time runoff forecasting for flood warning. Their application requires catchment characteristics and precipitation series that are not always available. An alternative approach is nonparametric modelling based only on runoff series. However, the following questions arise: Can nonparametric models show reliable forecasting? Can they perform as reliably as hydrological models? We performed probabilistic forecasting one, two and three hours ahead for a runoff series, with the aim of ascribing a probability density function to predicted discharge using time series analysis based on stochastic dynamics theory. The derived dynamic terms were compared to a hydrological model, LARSIM. Our procedure was able to forecast within 95% confidence interval 1-, 2- and 3-h ahead discharge probability functions with about 1.40 m³/s of range and relative errors (%) in the range [–30; 30]. The LARSIM model and the best nonparametric approaches gave similar results, but the range of relative errors was larger for the nonparametric approaches.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor K. Hamed

Citation Costa, A.C., Bronstert, A. and Kneis, D., 2012. Probabilistic flood forecasting for a mountainous headwater catchment using a nonparametric stochastic dynamic approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 10–25.  相似文献   

储层参数平面分布预测方法评价   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9       下载免费PDF全文

乐友喜  王永刚等 《地质与勘探》2001,37(5):56-60

利用逐步回归分析、神经网络、相关滤波、协克里金和非参数回归分析等方法，实现了由地震资料与测井资料联合应用对孔隙度参数的平面分布预测。通过实例分析比较了各自的地质效果。归纳总结出各种方法的特点及应用条件。  相似文献   

The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Sheng Yue  Paul Pilon  Bob Phinney  George Cavadias 《水文研究》2002,16(9):1807-1829

This study investigated using Monte Carlo simulation the interaction between a linear trend and a lag‐one autoregressive (AR(1)) process when both exist in a time series. Simulation experiments demonstrated that the existence of serial correlation alters the variance of the estimate of the Mann–Kendall (MK) statistic; and the presence of a trend alters the estimate of the magnitude of serial correlation. Furthermore, it was shown that removal of a positive serial correlation component from time series by pre‐whitening resulted in a reduction in the magnitude of the existing trend; and the removal of a trend component from a time series as a first step prior to pre‐whitening eliminates the influence of the trend on the serial correlation and does not seriously affect the estimate of the true AR(1). These results indicate that the commonly used pre‐whitening procedure for eliminating the effect of serial correlation on the MK test leads to potentially inaccurate assessments of the significance of a trend; and certain procedures will be more appropriate for eliminating the impact of serial correlation on the MK test. In essence, it was advocated that a trend first be removed in a series prior to ascertaining the magnitude of serial correlation. This alternative approach and the previously existing approaches were employed to assess the significance of a trend in serially correlated annual mean and annual minimum streamflow data of some pristine river basins in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that, with the previously existing procedures, researchers and practitioners may have incorrectly identified the possibility of significant trends. Copyright © Environment Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献