Projected glacier meltwater and river run‐off changes in the Upper Reach of the Shule River Basin,north‐eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau     

Zhihua Zhang  Shifan Deng  Qiudong Zhao  Shiqiang Zhang  Xiaowen Zhang 《水文研究》2019,33(7):1059-1074

Glacier meltwater change in the north‐eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau is greatly important for the projection of the impact of future climate change on local water resource management. Although the glaciated area is only approximately 4% of the Upper Reach of the Shule River Basin (URSRB), the average glacier meltwater contribution to river run‐off was approximately 23.6% during the periods 1971/1972 to 2012/2013. A new glacier melting module coupled with the macroscale hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC‐CAS) was adopted to simulate and project changes in the glacier meltwater and river run‐off of the URSRB forced by downscaled output of the BCC‐CSM1.1(m), CANESM2, GFDL‐CM3, and IPSL‐CM5A‐MR models. Comparisons between the observed and simulated river run‐offs and glacier area changes during the periods 2000/2001, 2004/2006, 2008/2009, and 2012/2013 suggest that the simulation is reasonable. Due to increases in precipitation, the annual total run‐off is projected to increase by approximately 2.58–2.73 × 10⁸ m³ in the 2050s and 0.28–1.87 × 10⁸ m³ in the 2100s compared with run‐off in the 2010s based on the RCP2.6 (low greenhouse gas emission) and RCP4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas emission) scenarios, respectively. The contribution of glacier meltwater to river run‐off will more likely decrease to approximately 10% and less than 5% during the 2050s and 2100s, respectively.  相似文献   

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use/cover change on runoff in the lower Connecticut River Basin          下载免费PDF全文

Hui Wang  Scott R. Stephenson 《水文研究》2018,32(9):1301-1312

Climate change and land use and cover change (LUCC) have had great impacts on watershed hydrological processes. Although previous studies have focused on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on decreasing run‐off change, few studies have examined regions that have significant increasing run‐off due to both climate variability and land cover change. We show that annual run‐off had a significant increasing trend from 1956 to 2014 in the U.S. lower Connecticut River Basin. Abrupt change point years of annual run‐off for four subbasins are detected by nonparametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test and reconfirmed by the double mass curve. We then divide the study period into 2 subperiods at the abrupt change point year in the early 1970s for each subbasin. The Choudhury–Yang equation based on Budyko hypothesis was used to calculate precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and landscape elasticities of run‐off. The results show that the difference in mean annual run‐off between 2 subperiods for each subbasin ranged from 102 to 165.6 mm. Climate variations were the primary drivers of increasing run‐off in this region. Quantitative contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in all subbasins are 106.5% and ?3.6% on average, respectively. However, LUCC contributed both positively and negatively to run‐off: ?18.6%, ?13.3%, and 10.1% and 9.9% for 4 subbasins. This may be attributed to historical LUCC occurring after the abrupt change point in each subbasin. Our results provide critical insight on the hydrological dynamics of north‐east tidal river systems to communities and policymakers engaged in water resources management in this region.  相似文献   

深水钻井隔水管避台撤离动力与长度优化   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

陈黎明  陈国明  孙友义  蒋世全  畅元江  许亮斌 《海洋工程》2012,30(2):26-31

钻井平台作业过程中遭遇强台风时,可能由于种种原因导致隔水管未被完全回收,平台只能下挂隔水管实施撤离。撤离过程中隔水管受到强烈的海流载荷作用,使平台的撤离航向与航速受到严重限制。提出隔水管避台撤离分析方法,建立软硬两种悬挂模式下撤离隔水管有限元模型,进行不同航向与航速下的隔水管悬挂撤离分析,研究隔水管悬挂撤离作业窗口,并对隔水管悬挂长度进行优化。分析表明,隔水管软悬挂撤离作业窗口较大,推荐平台采用软悬挂模式进行撤离,如不具备软悬挂实施条件,提前回收部分隔水管并将其余部分硬悬挂在平台上进行撤离也是一种可行的方案。  相似文献   

车辆碾压对沙质草原表土物理力学性质的影响     

殷玲  张德平  成永会  赵家明  靳立宁  海军  巴日斯  祁晓燕  屈建新 《中国沙漠》2015,35(5):1177-1182

通过野外现场调查、载荷试验、轻型圆锥动力触探、车辆碾压原状草地观测试验及室内试验方法,对呼伦贝尔沙质草原不同碾压程度表层沙土物理力学性质及变形和剪切破坏特征进行研究。结果表明:碾压使上软下硬高压缩性的原状表层沙土因应力集中产生振动密实沉降、塑性变形,直接破坏表土层原状结构。碾压程度越大,沙土密实度越高、抗剪强度越大、承载力越高。碾压形成上硬下软土层,因强度不足发生整体剪切破坏,塑性变形区的沙土在重复荷载作用下产生振动蠕变及砂土液化,使土层强度、稳定性显著降低。车辆碾压可直接或间接破坏沙质草原表层沙土,加剧土层破口形成及扩大,加速草原沙漠化。  相似文献   

Partitioning of metals (Fe,Pb, Cu,Zn) in urban run‐off from the Kaikorai Valley,Dunedin, New Zealand     

Luke M. Mosley  Barrie M. Peake 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(3):615-624

Urban run‐off from a catchment in Dunedin, New Zealand was sampled and chemically characterised (iron (Fe), lead (Pb), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn) in total and <0.4 (im fractions, suspended solids, nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), dissolved organic carbon, major ions, pH) during base flows, and storm flows from five rainfall events. Fe and Pb were found to be predominantly particle‐associated (>0.4 μm) and their concentrations increased significantly at the beginning of storm run‐off. In contrast, the majority of Cu and Zn was found in the <0.4μm fraction before rainfall events but during the initial period of storm flows a significant proportion of Cu and Zn was also present in the >0.4 μm fraction. The results indicate that Cu and Zn may be more bio‐available, and more difficult to remove by storm‐water treatment, than Pb. The pH level and the concentration of major ions (Ca⁺², Na⁺, Mg⁺², K⁺), dissolved reactive phosphorus, and nitrate generally decreased during storm flows as a result of dilution by rainwater. Concentrations of total N and P often increased during the initial period of storm run‐off, which was likely because of wash‐off of particulate plant material.  相似文献   

Evolution of operational management procedures for the South African West Coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii) fishery     

S. J. Johnston  D. S. Butterworth 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(3):687-702

The commercial fishery for Jasus lalandii, the South Africa West Coast rock lobster, began in the late 1800s and at its peak in the early 1950s yielded an annual catch of 18 000 t. Although this annual catch has dropped to only some 2000 t over recent years, the fishery remains South Africa's third most valuable for landed value. The primary reason for the low total allowable catch (TAC) over these recent years has been a marked drop in somatic growth rate that occurred at the end of the 1980s, for reasons that remain unexplained. A key problem in formulating TAC recommendations with longer‐term objectives in mind, has been uncertainties about likely future trends, particularly in somatic growth and recruitment. To address this problem, an “operational management procedure” (OMP) was adopted in 1997 and has twice been re‐evaluated and modified (in 2000 and 2003) in the light of further data and changing perceptions of resource dynamics. The history of this process is reviewed, concentrating on the most recent modification. In particular, a summary is given of the process by which the merits of alternative management procedures were evaluated over a range of important uncertainties about the dynamics of the resource. This summary includes a discussion of the key trade‐offs between resource rebuilding, future TAC trends and TAC variability, and the eventual choice that was made. The paper concludes by listing a number of lessons learnt concerning best practice for OMP development as this process evolved.  相似文献   

异极矿中锌EDTA容量分析法的改进     

何之华  杨文赋  覃常福 《云南地质》2009,28(1):95-98

异极矿中锌的EDTA容量法分析有不足之处。提出使用全过滤方法,用60℃左右的氨水（10＋100）溶液作为洗液对分离沉淀物进行洗涤,使共沉淀的Zn^2＋洗脱进入分析系统,从而提高分析精度。  相似文献   

航空物探测量中直升机起降点设置及应用          下载免费PDF全文

李健  郭亮  金久强  徐明  王志博  李冰  邓茂盛 《中国地质调查》2017,4(5):82-85

在航空物探测量飞行中,直升机以其机动灵活、出色的超低空性能以及能够沿强起伏地形飞行等特点,获得了业界认可的测量效果。但是直升机续航能力不足的弱点也成为野外飞行作业的首要问题,在测区内设置临时起降点这一方法可以很好地解决直升机续航能力不足的难题。笔者在总结直升机临时起降点设置原则基础上,利用实例说明直升机临时起降点设置方法及直升机飞行测量效率。该方法提高了野外飞行作业的效率,扩大了飞机的测量活动范围,降低了飞行作业的成本。  相似文献   

Off‐Mount Calibration and One New Potential Pyrrhotite Reference Material for Sulfur Isotope Measurement by Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry     

Rucao Li  Xiaoping Xia  Shenghong Yang  Huayong Chen  Qing Yang 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2019,43(1):177-187

Sulfur isotope measurements in three sulfide (two pyrite and one pyrrhotite) samples on two epoxy mounts showed that the mount‐to‐mount variation of raw δ³⁴S values was negligible when secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) analytical settings remained stable. In consequence, an off‐mount calibration procedure for SIMS sulfur isotope analysis was applied in this study. YP136 is a pyrrhotite sample collected from northern Finland. Examination of thin sections with a polarising microscope, backscattered electron image analyses and wavelength dispersive spectrometry mapping showed that the sample grains display no internal growth or other zoning. A total of 318 sulfur isotope (spot) measurements conducted on more than 100 randomly selected grains yielded highly consistent sulfur isotope ratios. The repeatability of all the analytical results of ³⁴S/³²S was 0.3‰ (2s, n = 318), which is the same as that of the well‐characterised pyrite reference materials PPP‐1 and UWPy‐1. Its δ³⁴S value determined by gas mass spectrometry was 1.5 ± 0.1‰ (2s, n = 11), which agrees with the SIMS data (1.5 ± 0.3‰, 2s) calibrated by pyrrhotite reference material Po‐10. Therefore, YP136 pyrrhotite is considered a candidate reference material for in situ sulfur isotope determination.  相似文献   

青藏铁路沿线的四季划分及其温度变化分析   总被引：28，自引：7，他引：21  

汤懋苍  钟海玲  李栋梁 《高原气象》2003,22(5):440-444

讨论了高原地区四季划分的标准,认为若以日平均气温作为指标,应比适用于我国东部的“张宝垄标准”低5℃,根据铁路沿线7个气象站：40年资料和温泉气象站6年资料,划出了各站四季的开始日期,发现格尔木和拉萨有短暂的夏季,高原主体上是“常年无夏,春秋相连”,仅昆仑山口附近是“全年皆冬,春风不渡”。高原上温度随纬度的变化与我国东部平原相似,也是冬季梯度大,夏季小;逆温层厚度以柴达木盆地为最厚,向南逐渐变薄。  相似文献