Model identification for hydrological forecasting under uncertainty   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Thorsten Wagener  Hoshin V. Gupta 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(6):378-387

Methods for the identification of models for hydrological forecasting have to consider the specific nature of these models and the uncertainties present in the modeling process. Current approaches fail to fully incorporate these two aspects. In this paper we review the nature of hydrological models and the consequences of this nature for the task of model identification. We then continue to discuss the history (“The need for more POWER‘’), the current state (“Learning from other fields”) and the future (“Towards a general framework”) of model identification. The discussion closes with a list of desirable features for an identification framework under uncertainty and open research questions in need of answers before such a framework can be implemented.  相似文献   

燕山地区褶皱冲断带和盆地中的晚侏罗世土城子组/后城组形成分析(英文)     

Gregory A.DAVIS 《地学前缘》2005,(4)

土城子组/后城组为广泛分布在中国北方的燕山褶皱冲断带和盆地中晚侏罗世的典型碎屑岩沉积。本文主要是针对目前在燕山地区的通行的有关土城子组/后城组、及其之下的髫髻山组/蓝旗组,和上覆的张家口组/东岭台组火山岩的相关对比方法提出质疑。其他同行近期发表相关的氩-氩法和铀-铅法同位素测年数据指出髫髻山组/蓝旗组年龄为175~147Ma、土城子组/后城组年龄为156~139Ma、张家口组/东岭台组年龄为147~127Ma,显而易见,上述地层组的年龄是相互重叠的。这些测年数据说明以往的地层对比是有问题的,燕山造山带在中、晚侏罗世所发育的火山岩和沉积岩地层是穿时的。因此,传统上用(165±5)Ma和(135±5)Ma之间的区域不整合来作为划分髫髻山组和后城组的层序界限是值得商榷的。尽管一些髫髻山组的火山岩和土城子组/后城组的沉积岩是与向南或向北的冲断作用相伴生的,但在髫髻山组和土城子组/后城组沉积之间的30~35Ma的时间间隔内却是相对的构造平静期。这一结论是基于以往的髫髻山组和土城子组之间为假整合或平行不整合的观点所得出的。新近基于对承德盆地土城子组地层形成研究分析认为承德冲断层的实际位移距离应小于Davis等2001年所提出的位移距离,笔者接受这一观点。但笔者并不同意在承德地区土城子组的沉积主要是受控于承德北部的向南冲断作用。现今承德向形盆地主要是由于向北冲断的承德县冲断层下盘变形的结果,主要是(1)它向北发生倒转;(2)盆地南部的粗碎屑沉积的物源主要是来源于承德县的异地体。土城子组/后城组的沉积没有必要完全受控于构造作用。土城子组/后城组的沉积是紧随着在燕山部分地区发生的,持续了20~25Ma的髫髻山组/蓝旗组火山及岩浆活动。在中、晚侏罗世期间,燕山地区的岩浆活动必定导致地形的起伏,这就为快速剥蚀及粗碎屑的沉积提供了有利条件。最后需要指出的是,从前所提及的有关燕山带的土城子组/后城组和阴山带的大青山组的地层对比的依据并不存在。  相似文献   

Adaptation of seismic skeletonization for other geoscience applications     

K. Vasudevan  D. Eaton  F. A. Cook 《Geophysical Journal International》2005,162(3):975-993

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Normal faulting as a control on the stratigraphic development of shallow marine syn-rift sequences: the Nukhul and Lower Rudeis Formations, Hammam Faraun fault block, Suez Rift, Egypt   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

C. A. L. JACKSON  R. L. GAWTHORPE  I. D. CARR  I. R. SHARP 《Sedimentology》2005,52(2):313-338

Tectono-stratigraphic analysis of the East Tanka fault zone (ETFZ), Suez Rift, indicates that the evolution of normal fault segments was an important control on syn-rift depositional patterns and sequence stratigraphy. Sedimentological and stratigraphic analysis of the Nukhul Formation indicates that it was deposited in a narrow (ca 1–2 km), elongate (ca 5 km), fault-bounded, tidally influenced embayment during the low subsidence rift-initiation phase. The Nukhul Formation is composed of transgressive (TST) and highstand (HST) systems tract couplets interpreted as reflecting fault-driven subsidence and the continuous creation of accommodation in the hangingwall to the ETFZ. The overlying Lower Rudeis Formation was deposited during the high subsidence rift-climax phase, and is composed of forced regressive systems tract (FRST) shallow marine sandbodies, and TST to HST offshore mudstones. Activity on the ETFZ led to marked spatial variability in stratal stacking patterns, systems tracts and key stratal surfaces, as footwall uplift, coupled with regressive marine erosion during deposition of FRST sandbodies, led to the removal of intervening TST–HST mudstone-dominated units, and the amalgamation of FRST sandbodies and the stratal surfaces bounding these units in the footwall. This study indicates that the evolution of normal fault segments over relatively short (i.e. <1 km) length-scales has the potential to enhance or suppress a eustatic sea-level signal, leading to marked spatial variations in stratal stacking patterns, systems tracts and key stratal surfaces. Crucially, these variations in sequence stratigraphic evolution may occur within time-equivalent stratal units, thus caution must be exercised when attempting to correlate syn-rift depositional units based solely on stratal stacking patterns. Furthermore, local, tectonically controlled variations in relative sea level can give rise to syn-rift stacking patterns which are counterintuitive in the context of the structural setting and perceived regional subsidence rates.  相似文献   

Structure of Palaeogene sediments in east Ellesmere Island: Constraints on Eurekan tectonic evolution and implications for the Nares Strait problem     

K. Saalmann  F. Tessensohn  K. Piepjohn  W. von Gosen  U. Mayr 《Tectonophysics》2005,406(1-2):81-113

The “Nares Strait problem” represents a debate about the existence and magnitude of left-lateral movements along the proposed Wegener Fault within this seaway. Study of Palaeogene Eurekan tectonics at its shorelines could shed light on the kinematics of this fault. Palaeogene (Late Paleocene to Early Eocene) sediments are exposed at the northeastern coast of Ellesmere Island in the Judge Daly Promontory. They are preserved as elongate SW–NE striking fault-bounded basins cutting folded Early Paleozoic strata. The structures of the Palaeogene exposures are characterized by broad open synclines cut and displaced by steeply dipping strike-slip faults. Their fold axes strike NE–SW at an acute angle to the border faults indicating left-lateral transpression. Weak deformation in the interior of the outliers contrasts with intense shearing and fracturing adjacent to border faults. The degree of deformation of the Palaeogene strata varies markedly between the northwestern and southeastern border faults with the first being more intense. Structural geometry, orientation of subordinate folds and faults, the kinematics of faults, and fault-slip data suggest a multiple stage structural evolution during the Palaeogene Eurekan deformation: (1) The fault pattern on Judge Daly Promontory is result of left-lateral strike-slip faulting starting in Mid to Late Paleocene times. The Palaeogene Judge Daly basin formed in transtensional segments by pull-apart mechanism. Transpression during progressive strike-slip shearing gave rise to open folding of the Palaeogene deposits. (2) The faults were reactivated during SE-directed thrust tectonics in Mid Eocene times (chron 21). A strike-slip component during thrusting on the reactivated faults depends on the steepness of the fault segments and on their obliquity to the regional stress axes.Strike-slip displacement was partitioned to a number of sub-parallel faults on-shore and off-shore. Hence, large-scale lateral movements in the sum of 80–100 km or more could have been accommodated by a set of faults, each with displacements in the order of 10–30 km. The Wegener Fault as discrete plate boundary in Nares Strait is replaced by a bundle of faults located mainly onshore on the Judge Daly Promontory.  相似文献   

Western Alpine back-thrusting as subsidence mechanism in the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (Western Po Plain, NW Italy)     

B. Carrapa  D. Garcia-Castellanos 《Tectonophysics》2005,406(3-4):197-212

Basin formation dynamics of the Tertiary Piedmont Basin (TPB) are here investigated by means of cross-section numerical modelling. Previous works hypothesised that basin subsidence occurred due first to extension (Oligocene) and then to subsequent loading due to back-thrusting (Miocene). However, structural evidence shows that the TPB was mainly under contraction from Oligocene until post Pliocene time while extension played a minor role. Furthermore, thermal indicators strongly call for a cold (flexure-induced) mechanism but are strictly inconsistent with a hot (thermally induced) mechanism. Our new modelling shows that the TPB stratigraphic features can be reproduced by flexure of a visco-elastic plate loaded by back-thrusts active in the Western Alps in Oligo-Miocene times. Far-field compression contributed to the TPB subsidence and controlled the basin infill geometry by enhancing basin tilting, forebulge uplift and erosion of the southern margin of the basin. These results suggest that the TPB subsidence is the result of a combination of mechanisms including thrust loading and far-field compressional stresses.  相似文献   

Geochemistry and Depositional Setting of Fort Munro Formation, Middle and Lower Indus Basins, Pakistan     

ShahidNaseem ShamimAhmedSheikh ErumBashir KhaulaShirin 《中国地质大学学报(英文版)》2005,16(2):160-169

INTRODUCTION Theinteractionofcomplextectonicphasesinthe IndusbasinduringtheCretaceoushasimpartedascal lopedoutlineinthesedimentarysequences.Thedevel opmentofdiversifiedsedimentaryformationsduringthe Cretaceousensuresexcellentsources(SembarandGoru formations)andreservoirs(MoghalKotandPabfor mations)forhydrocarbons.Numerousplaysandpros pectsofhydrocarbonareassociatedwiththeCretaceous system,consequentlytheIndusbasinisattractiveto petroleumexplorationcompaniesinPakistan(Sheikh andNa…  相似文献   

Post-Collisional Transition from Subduction- to Intraplate-type Magmatism in the Westernmost Mediterranean: Evidence for Continental-Edge Delamination of Subcontinental Lithosphere   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  

DUGGEN  S.; HOERNLE  K.; VAN DEN BOGAARD  P.; GARBE-SCHONBERG  D. 《Journal of Petrology》2005,46(6):1155-1201

Post-collisional magmatism in the southern Iberian and northwesternAfrican continental margins contains important clues for theunderstanding of a possible causal connection between movementsin the Earth's upper mantle, the uplift of continental lithosphereand the origin of circum-Mediterranean igneous activity. Systematicgeochemical and geochronological studies (major and trace element,Sr–Nd–Pb-isotope analysis and laser ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar-agedating) on igneous rocks provide constraints for understandingthe post-collisional history of the southern Iberian and northwesternAfrican continental margins. Two groups of magmatic rocks canbe distinguished: (1) an Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene (8·2–4·8Ma), Si–K-rich group including high-K (calc-alkaline)and shoshonitic series rocks; (2) an Upper Miocene to Pleistocene(6·3–0·65 Ma), Si-poor, Na-rich group includingbasanites and alkali basalts to hawaiites and tephrites. Maficsamples from the Si–K-rich group generally show geochemicalaffinities with volcanic rocks from active subduction zones(e.g. Izu–Bonin and Aeolian island arcs), whereas maficsamples from the Si-poor, Na-rich group are geochemically similarto lavas found in intraplate volcanic settings derived fromsub-lithospheric mantle sources (e.g. Canary Islands). The transitionfrom Si-rich (subduction-related) to Si-poor (intraplate-type)magmatism between 6·3 Ma (first alkali basalt) and 4·8Ma (latest shoshonite) can be observed both on a regional scaleand in individual volcanic systems. Si–K-rich and Si-poorigneous rocks from the continental margins of southern Iberiaand northwestern Africa are, respectively, proposed to havebeen derived from metasomatized subcontinental lithosphere andsub-lithospheric mantle that was contaminated with plume material.A three-dimensional geodynamic model for the westernmost Mediterraneanis presented in which subduction of oceanic lithosphere is inferredto have caused continental-edge delamination of subcontinentallithosphere associated with upwelling of plume-contaminatedsub-lithospheric mantle and lithospheric uplift. This processmay operate worldwide in areas where subduction-related andintraplate-type magmatism are spatially and temporally associated. KEY WORDS: post-collisional magmatism; Mediterranean-style back-arc basins; subduction; delamination; uplift of marine gateways  相似文献   

Geological mapping reveals the role of Early Jurassic rift architecture in the dispersal of calciturbidites: New insights from the Central and Northern Apennines     

Angelo Cipriani  Martina Caratelli  Massimo Santantonio 《Basin Research》2020,32(6):1485-1509

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A hydropedological approach to simulate streamflow and soil water contents with SWAT+     

Johan van Tol  Katrin Bieger  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2021,35(6):e14242

Reflecting internal catchment hydrological processes in hydrological models is important for accurate predictions of the impact of climate and land-use change on water resources. Characterizing these processes is however difficult and expensive due to their dynamic nature and spatio-temporal variability. Hydropedology is a relatively new discipline focusing on the synergistic integration of hydrology, soil physics and pedology. Hydropedological interpretations of soils and soil distribution can be used to characterize key hydrological processes, especially in areas with no or limited hydrometric measurements. Here we applied a hydropedological approach to reflect flowpaths through detailed routing in SWAT+ for a 157 ha catchment (Weatherley) in South Africa. We compared the hydropedological approach and a standard (no routing) approach against measured streamflow (two weirs) and soil water contents (13 locations). The catchment was treated as ‘ungauged’ and the model was not calibrated against hydrometric measurements in order to determine the direct contribution of hydropedology on modelling efficiency. Streamflow was predicted well without calibration (NSE > 0.8; R² > 0.82) for both approaches at both weirs. The standard approach yielded slightly better streamflow predictions. The hydropedological approach resulted in considerable improvements in the simulation of soil water contents (R² increased from 0.40 to 0.49 and PBIAS decreased from 40% to 20%). The routing capacity of SWAT+ as employed in the hydropedological approach reduced the underestimation of wetland water regimes drastically and resulted in a more accurate representation of the dominant hydrological processes in this catchment. We concluded that hydropedology can be a valuable source of ‘soft data’ to reflect internal catchment structure and processes and, potentially, for realistic calibrations in other studies, especially those conducted in areas with limited hydrometric measurements.  相似文献