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81.
从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征 相似文献
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83.
地球系统科学与成矿学研究 总被引:24,自引:6,他引:24
在简述地球系统科学的基础上 ,文中提出了由地球系统科学引发的成矿学研究 3个观点 :(1 )成矿系统是一个特色的地质系统 ;(2 )成矿系统与其它系统的关联 ;(3)地质突发事件具有灾害和资源的两重性。针对地球系统科学要求和矿床学学科发展进程 ,提出了 5个亟待加强的研究领域或课题 :(1 )深部过程、浅表环境与成矿系统 ;(2 )重大事件与成矿 ;(3)生命活动与成矿 ;(4 )物理成矿作用和(5 )海洋成矿作用。在结语中 ,作者强调要从地球系统的大背景来研究成矿环境、成矿过程和成矿动力学 ,也即将传统的矿床成因研究提高到地球系统科学的层次 ,为矿床学的发展提供新的广阔的理论基础。 相似文献
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85.
1. Introduction The observed facts show that the ENSO cycle has obvious phase-locking and oscillates irregularly (An and Wang, 2001; Kaplan et al., 1998). Based on Zibiak and Cane's (1987) model (hereafter, the Z-C model) and simple, coupled ocean-atmosph… 相似文献
86.
During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO2 gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma. 相似文献
87.
The identification of marine source rocks in the Tarim Basin is debated vigorously. The intention of this paper is to investigate the asphahenes in heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields and Well TD2 with ruthenium-ions-catalyzed oxidation technique (RICO), in order to explore its role in oil-oil and oil-source correlations, The RICO products included n-alkanoic acids, α,ω-di-n-alkanoic acids, branched alkanoic acids, tricyclic terpanoic acids, hopanoic acids, gammacerane carboxylic acid , regular sterane carboxylic acids and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids. The n-alkyl chains and biomarkers bounded on the asphaltenes were of unsusceptibility to biodegradation. The distribution and absolute concentrations of n-alkanoic acids in the RICO products of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields are different from those of Well TD2. The biomarkers bounded on the asphahenes, especially steranes, have a distribution trend similar to that of the counterparts in saturates. The sterane carboxylic acids and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids in the RICO products of heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tahe oilfields, dominated by C30 sterane and C31 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids, respectively, are significantly different from those of the heavy oils of Well TD2, whose dominating sterane and 4-methylsterane carboxylic acids are C28 sterane and C29 4-methylsterane acids, respectively. The RICO products of the asphaltenes further indicate that the Middle-Upper Ordovician may be the main source rocks for heavy oils from the Lunnan and Tabe oilfields. 相似文献
88.
Abstract. Inorganic chemical compositions are determined for a series of rocks crossing an Early Jurassic stratiform manganese ore deposit in a chert‐dominant sequence at Katsuyama, in the Mino Terrane of central Japan. The lithology in the vicinity of the manganese ore bed is classified into lower bedded chert, black shale, massive chert, manganese ore and upper bedded chert, in ascending order. The rocks surrounding the manganese deposit are anomalously high in certain elements: Pb (max. 29 ppm), Ni (1140) and Co (336) in the lower bedded chert, Mo (438), As (149), Tl (29) and U (12) in the black shales, V (210) and Cr (87) in the massive chert, and MnO and W (24) in the manganese ore. The aluminum‐normalized profiles reveal a distinct zonation of redox‐sensitive elements: Pb‐Zn, Ni‐Co‐Cu(‐Zn) and U‐Cr in the lower bedded chert, Mo‐As‐Tl in the black shale, V(‐Cr) in the massive chert, and Mn‐Fe‐Ba‐W in the manganese ore, in ascending order. The lower and upper bedded cherts and manganese ore generally exhibit flat rare earth element patterns with positive Ce anomalies, whereas the uppermost part of the lower bedded chert, the black shale and massive chert have flat patterns with weak or nonexistent negative Ce anomalies and weak positive Eu anomalies. The strong enrichment in Ni, Co, W, Tl and As detected in the Katsuyama section is not recognized in other sediments, including those of anoxic deposition origin, but is identified in modern ferromanganese nodules, suggesting that metal enrichment in the Katsuyama section is essentially due to the formation of ferromanganese nodules rather than to deposition in an anoxic environment. The observed elemental zonation is well explained by equilibrium calculations, reflecting early diagenetic formation and associated gradual reduction with depth. The concentration profiles in combination with litho‐ and biostratigraphical features suggest that formation of these bedded manganese deposits was triggered by an influx of warm, saline and oxic water into a stagnant deep ocean floor basin in Panthalassa at the end of the middle Early Jurassic. Paleoceanographic environmental controls thus appear to be important factors in the formation and preservation of this type of stratiform manganese deposit. 相似文献
89.
Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept 下载免费PDF全文
Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
90.
Fan Zhang Xiong Xiao Lijie Wang Chen Zeng Zhengliang Yu Guanxing Wang Xiaonan Shi 《水文研究》2021,35(8):e14330
Climate factors play critical roles in controlling chemical weathering, while chemically weathered surface material can regulate climate change. To estimate global chemical weathering fluxes and CO2 balance, it is important to identify the characteristics and driving factors of chemical weathering and CO2 consumption on the Tibetan Plateau, especially in glaciated catchments. The analysis of the hydro-geochemical data indicated that silicate weathering in this area was inhibited by low temperatures, while carbonate weathering was promoted by the abundant clastic rocks with fresh surfaces produced by glacial action. Carbonate weathering dominated the riverine solute generation (with a contribution of 58%, 51%, and 43% at the QiangYong Glacier (QYG), the WengGuo Hydrological Station (WGHS), and the lake estuary (LE), respectively). The oxidation of pyrite contributed to 35%, 42%, and 30% of the riverine solutes, while silicate weathering contributed to 5%, 6%, and 26% of the riverine solutes at the QYG, WGHS, and LE, respectively. The alluvial deposit of easily weathering fine silicate minerals, the higher air temperature, plant density, and soil thickness at the downstream LE in comparison to upstream and midstream may lead to longer contact time between pore water and mineral materials, thus enhancing the silicate weathering. Because of the involvement of sulfuric acid produced by the oxidation of pyrite, carbonate weathering in the upstream and midstream did not consume atmospheric CO2, resulting in the high rate of carbonate weathering (73.9 and 75.6 t km−2 yr−1, respectively, in maximum) and potential net release of CO2 (with an upper constraint of 35.6 and 35.2 t km−2 yr−1, respectively) at the QYG and WGHS. The above results indicate the potential of the glaciated area of the Tibetan Plateau with pyrite deposits being a substantial natural carbon source, which deserves further investigation. 相似文献