Estimation of extreme floods of the River Meuse using a stochastic weather generator and a rainfall–runoff model / Estimation des crues extrêmes de la Meuse à l'aide d'un générateur stochastique de variables météorologiques et d'un modèle pluie–débit     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6)

Abstract

A stochastic weather generator has been developed to simulate long daily sequences of areal rainfall and station temperature for the Belgian and French sub-basins of the River Meuse. The weather generator is based on the principle of nearest-neighbour resampling. In this method rainfall and temperature data are sampled simultaneously from multiple historical records with replacement such that the temporal and spatial correlations are well preserved. Particular emphasis is given to the use of a small number of long station records in the resampling algorithm. The distribution of the 10-day winter maxima of basin-average rainfall is quite well reproduced. The generated sequences were used as input for hydrological simulations with the semi-distributed HBV rainfall–runoff model. Though this model is capable of reproducing the flood peaks of December 1993 and January 1995, it tends to underestimate the less extreme daily peak discharges. This underestimation does not show up in the 10-day average discharges. The hydrological simulations with the generated daily rainfall and temperature data reproduce the distribution of the winter maxima of the 10-day average discharges well. Resampling based on long station records leads to lower rainfall and discharge extremes than resampling from the data over a shorter period for which areal rainfall was available.  相似文献   

Utility of high-resolution climate model simulations for water resources prediction over the Korean Peninsula: a sensitivity study / Utilité de simulations de modèle climatique à haute résolution pour la prévision des ressources en eau dans la Péninsule Coréenne: étude de sensibilité     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)

Abstract

Abstract The utility of simulations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) for regional water resources prediction and management on the Korean Peninsula was assessed by a probabilistic measure. Global Climate Model simulations of an indicator variable (e.g. surface precipitation or temperature) were used for discriminating high vs low regional observations of a target variable (e.g. watershed precipitation or reservoir inflow). The formulation uses the significance probability of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for detecting differences between two distributions. High resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-II (AMIP-II) type GCM simulations performed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and AMIP-I type GCM simulations performed by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) were used to obtain information for the indicator variables. Observed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and watershed-outlet discharge values for seven major river basins in Korea were used as the target variables. The results suggest that the use of the climate model nodal output from both climate models in the vicinity of the target basin with monthly resolution will be beneficial for water resources planning and management analysis that depends on watershed mean areal precipitation and temperature, and outlet discharge.  相似文献   

北京女性两个相邻哺乳期体内p,p'-DDE排泄速度与富集速度研究     

宋淑玲  潘萌  马晓东 《岩矿测试》2021,(6):954-961

母乳中p,p’-DDE浓度是监测母体短期内p,p’-DDE的“静态”蓄积水平,估算婴幼儿每日摄入量的重要技术手段。本文旨在通过监测北京女性两个相邻哺乳期内母乳中p,p’-DDE浓度及变化,估算两次分娩间隔期母体内p,p’-DDE的“动态”富集速度,并根据每日摄入量掌握人体p,p’-DDE的长期变化趋势。在2009年至2019年期间,收集了43名女性首次分娩后六个月内和18名女性第二次分娩后六个月内的母乳样本,并采用气相色谱法检测了母乳中p,p’-DDE的浓度。实验结果表明,母乳中p,p’-DDE浓度在哺乳期持续下降。年龄和分娩次数是母乳中p,p’-DDE浓度的影响因素,p,p’-DDE浓度随母亲年龄增大而升高,随分娩次数增多而降低。18名母亲两个哺乳期内母乳中p,p’-DDE平均排泄速度计算结果表明,排泄速度从18.9μg/kg lipid/month降低到16.8μg/kg lipids/month。而母体两次分娩隔期内p,p’-DDE年富集速度估算值为正,分布在10.9~14.9μg/kg lipids/year之间,每日摄入量分布在29.8~40.8ng/day/kg.b.w.之间。因此北京女性哺乳期母体内p,p’-DDE月排泄速度与母体年富集速度数值相当,母体p,p’-DDE每日摄入量远低于世界卫生组织（WHO）建议值,北京女性是低风险暴露人群。  相似文献   

关于下蜀黄土分类新方法及其承载力探讨   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

吴自强 《水文地质工程地质》2001,28(6):39-42

下蜀黄土是我国区域性分布的一种特殊性土，是在干旱气候条件下由风力堆积而成。单一地采用塑性指数（Ip)对其进行分类是显进管于简单而不能反映其特征。本文综合其活动性指数及粘粒含量进行分类的新方法，有利于对下蜀黄土进行评价。同时因其粉粒含量超过50％，受“袜度效应”影响，不能简单地套用粘性土公式，笔者总结了以往下蜀土分布地区采用的粘性土，新黄土公式，注意到Ip,Ps与fo,fk的相关性，提出了fo=100βPs 40α经验公式。  相似文献   

Recognition of the hydrogeological potential using electrical sounding in the Khemisset-Tiflet region,Morocco          下载免费PDF全文

Fatima Zahra FAQIHI  Anasse BENSLIMANE  Abderrahim LAHRACH  Mohamed CHIBOUT  Mohamed EL MOKHTAR 《地下水科学与工程》2020,8(2):172-179

The low recharge of reservoirs and the increasing demand for water limit the potential of mobilized resources, especially in arid to semi-arid areas like Morocco. Integrated management is essential to safeguard this resource. In respect with this perspective, this work provides the analysis of hydrogeological potential of Khemisset-Tiflet region, which falls within the action area of the Sebou Hydraulic Basin Agency. The basis of our studies was as follows:(1) The interpretation of the existing geoelectric data;(2) application of geophysical methods for non-destructive reconnaissance and their integration into a Geographic Information System(GIS). The analysis demonstrates that: The map of the isohypses and the geoelectric cross-section of the substratum of the superficial roof aquifer show clearly a plunge associated with development of the Paleozoic roof in the South and the direction of flow of the surface water is from south to north, from the upper zone to the north of the El Kansera dam. These conclusions constitute very useful contribution for any resource management projects in this area.  相似文献   

Static compression of α-Fe<Subscript>2</Subscript>O<Subscript>3</Subscript>: linear incompressibility of lattice parameters and high-pressure transformations     

H.?Liu  W. A.?Caldwell  L. R.?Benedetti  W.?Panero  R.?JeanlozEmail author 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2003,30(9):582-588

The high-pressure behavior of -Fe₂O₃ has been studied under static compression up to 60 GPa, using a laser-heated diamond anvil cell. Synchrotron-based angular-dispersive X-ray diffraction shows that the sample remains in the corundum structure up to 50 GPa, but with the appearance of coexisting diffraction lines from a high-pressure phase at pressures above 45 GPa. A least-squares fit of low-pressure phase data to an Eulerian finite-strain equation of state yields linear incompressibilities of K _{a 0}=749.5 (± 18.4) GPa and K _{c 0}= 455.7 (± 21.4) GPa, differing by a factor of 1.6 along the two directions. The enhanced compressibility of the c axis may lead to breaking of vertex- or edge-sharing bonds between octahedra, inducing the high-pressure phase transformation at 50 GPa. Analysis of linear compressibilities suggests that the high-pressure phase above 50 GPa is of the Rh₂O₃ (II) structure. Continuous laser heating reveals a new structural phase transformation of -Fe₂O₃ at 22 GPa, to an orthorhombic structure with a=7.305(3) Å, b=7.850(3) Å, and c=12.877(14) Å, different from the Rh₂O₃ (II) structure.  相似文献   

Paléoclimat des Petites Antilles depuis 4000 ans BP : l'enregistrement de la lagune de Grand-Case à Saint-Martin     

Pascal Bertran  Dominique Bonnissent  Daniel Imbert  Pierre Lozouet  Nathalie Serrand  Christian Stouvenot 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2004,336(16):14

A 2.5-m-thick sequence of lake sediments at the Étang de Grand-Case, Saint Martin (French West Indies) is studied here. Significant hydrological budget fluctuations allows distinction of three main climatic periods: (1) an overall dry period (4200 BP–2300 BP), characterised by carbonated mud, gypsum and storm sand layers; (2) a wet phase (2300 BP–1150 BP) dominated by organic mud; and (3) a more complex phase (1150 BP to present), with detrital inputs due to human activities. Comparison with other regional high-resolution records shows that similar climate modifications typify the whole Mesoamerican and Caribbean area. The climatic phenomena that are implicated in the variations of both precipitation and hurricane frequency over the Lesser Antilles are due to the latitudinal displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. These data give new support to the hypothesis of the existence of a correlation between peopling phases and climate variations in the Caribbean as previously proposed by some archaeologists. To cite this article: P. Bertran et al., C. R. Geoscience 336 (2004).  相似文献   

Assessment of environmental and engineering geological problems for the possible re-use of an abandoned rock-hewn settlement in Urgüp (Cappadocia), Turkey     

Resat Ulusay  Candan Gokceoglu  Tamer Topal  Harun Sonmez  Ergün Tuncay  Zeynal Abiddin Erguler  Ozgu Kasmer 《Environmental Geology》2006,50(4):473-494

The Cappadocia Region of Central Anatolia having a very distinct culture is one of the attractive touristic sites of Turkey due to its spectacular and unique landforms and historical heritages. In this region, the structures carved into thick to massive tuffs survived and kept their original integrity for a number of centuries. Environmental and anthropological factors at the Cappadocia Region have been the main reasons for extensive subsurface and multi-purpose use in the past and present. In addition, thermal insulation properties of the tuffs make these rocks suitable for use in underground openings. The Kayakapi Neighborhood, located in the town of Urgüp, is one of the famous historical sites. This site is situated within the “Göreme National Park and the Rock Sites of Cappadocia” which was inscribed on the World Heritage List in 1985. In order to develop the tourism potential of this abandoned site while preserving its cultural and natural values, a natural environmental conservation and revitalization project was initiated. As an integral part of this project, in this study, environmental and engineering geological problems, including rock fall potential and stability of about 1,200 rock-hewn structures, were investigated and an inventory was prepared for the possible re-use of the underground openings and other structures at the site, and remedial measures were recommended. The assessments based on observations and experimental studies indicated that the tuffs do not show significant changes both perpendicular and parallel to layering, and discontinuities and rock weathering seem to be more important factors controlling the stability of rock-hewn structures. The major stability problems threatening the re-use of the openings are structurally-controlled block instabilities, overbreaks, and erosion and shearing of the pillars made of tuff. On the other hand, the area at the entrance of the site requires some protection measures such as the construction of a retaining wall, systematic bolting of rock slabs and removal of some blocks having rock fall potential. The inventory for the openings suggests that there are a number of openings that can be re-used after necessary remedial measures.  相似文献   

混合表面活性剂存在下锰的高灵敏显色反应研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

尹家元  杨光宇 《岩矿测试》1998,17(4):282-284

研究了碱性介质中,Ｍｎ（Ⅱ）被空气氧化生成Ｈ２ＭｎＯ３,然后在Ｈ３ＰＯ４介质中,Ｃｕ（Ⅱ）和阳离子型有机相／水相微乳液（ＣＴＭＡＢ／戊醇／正庚烷／水）的存在下,Ｍｎ（Ⅳ）与二安替比林对乙氧基苯基甲烷（ＤＡｐＥＭ）生成橙色产物,λｍａｘ为４５０ｎｍ,ε＝１．９５×１０５Ｌ·ｍｏｌ－１·ｃｍ－１。Ｍｎ（Ⅱ）的质量浓度在０～３２０μｇ／Ｌ内符合比尔定律。方法用于合金中锰的测定,结果与标准值符合,５次测定结果的ＲＳＤ＜３％。  相似文献   

关于p范最小解的存在性与唯一性的讨论   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

於宗俦  孙海燕 《测绘学报》1997,26(4):322-327

本文从理论上细致地分析了ｐ－范最小解的存在性与唯一性问题。结论如下：当０〈ｐ〈１时，ｐ－范最小解存在，而且当ｐ〉１时，解存在且唯一。  相似文献