Proportion of Sewage Sludge to Soil Influences the Survival of Salmonella Dublin and Escherichia coli          下载免费PDF全文

Stephanie Ellis  Sean Tyrrel  Emma O'Leary  Karl Richards  Bryan Griffiths  Karl Ritz 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2018,46(4)

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IPCC耦合模式对北太平洋海-气系统冬季重现的模拟   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

赵霞  杨光 《海洋学报》2019,41(9):114-125

冬季重现(再现)是中高纬度大尺度海表温度重要的持续性特征,是热带外海洋特有的现象。北太平洋大气环流也存在这一现象,它可能会强迫产生这一海域海温的冬季重现。本文利用IPCC 20C3M耦合模式资料,评估了耦合模式模拟北太平洋海–气系统冬季重现的能力。北太平洋海温冬季重现的空间范围是海盆尺度的,中部重现时间比其周围晚。大气环流场的冬季重现主要是在北太平洋中部,它与海温冬季重现关系密切。大多数IPCC耦合模式基本上可以模拟出太平洋海温大范围的冬季重现现象。与重现范围的模拟相比,耦合模式对重现时间地理差异的模拟都比较差。各模式对大气环流冬季重现时空分布特征的模拟较差,大部分模式未能模拟出大气环流场中主要的重现区域。而且,大气环流冬季重现对海温重现的可能影响并没有体现在这些耦合模式中。耦合模式对北太平洋大气冬季重现的模拟还有待改善。  相似文献   

城市青年群体住房产权获得的区域差异——以上海和南京为例     

崔璨  李佳怡  崔军茹  徐伟  王丰龙 《热带地理》2020,40(6):1004-1014

从城市异质性视角,以一线城市上海和二线城市南京为例,基于2013年长三角地区社会变迁调查和南京市住房调查数据,利用Logistic模型,剖析了两地青年住房产权获得的影响因素及其差异。研究发现,两个城市青年住房产权获得的影响因素存在较大差异。与南京相比,上海青年居民的住房获得存在更大的区位和制度壁垒,受城市区位、户口、制度因素影响更大,而受教育水平、工作流动性等市场因素以及年龄、是否育有子女等生命历程因素的影响较小。上海,作为一线城市,户口制度仍然处于精准严控阶段,落户门槛相对较高,另外住房价格高企,上海的青年群体在住房产权获得中同时面临着制度层面和市场层面的双重严苛考验。而在二线城市南京,户口政策相对较为宽松,青年群体的住房产权获得所面临的制度性障碍较小,而市场因素更加主导。  相似文献   

PERSISTENCES IN THE δ~(13)C AND δ~(18)O FROM TS95, A LAKE CORE AT THE SOUTH FRANK OF WEST KUNLUN MOUNTAIN     

Zhou Houyun  Zhu Zhaoyu  Wen Qizhong  Li Bingyuan  Li Shijie  He Yixian 《地学前缘》2000,(Z1)

PERSISTENCES IN THE δ~(13)C AND δ~(18)O FROM TS95, A LAKE CORE AT THE SOUTH FRANK OF WEST KUNLUN MOUNTAIN  相似文献   

Erosion,deposition, and the persistence of soil organic matter: mechanistic considerations and problems with terminology   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Asmeret Asefaw Berhe  Markus Kleber 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(8):908-912

The effect of erosional detachment, transport, and deposition of topsoil on the stock of soil organic matter (SOM) and its association with soil minerals has been a focus of a growing number of studies. A particularly lively debate is currently centered on the questions of whether terrestrial sedimentation of previously eroded SOM may constitute a relevant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and how ‘stable’ such carbon (C) might be on multidecadal timescales. In this commentary, we illustrate how redistribution of eroded SOM within a landscape can create situations that are not adequately described by the jargon commonly used to characterize C turnover dynamics. We argue that more quantitative and scientifically rigorous categories are needed to describe soil C turnover and to promote the development of innovative, numerical models of C dynamics in landscapes characterized by significant mass movement. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland     

Conor Murphy  Shaun Harrigan  Julia Hall  Robert L. Wilby 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):755-772

Abstract

This paper introduces a reference hydrometric network for Ireland and examines the derived flow archive for evidence of climate-driven trends in mean and high river flows. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen tests are applied to eight hydroclimatic indicators for fixed and variable (start and end date) records. Spatial coherence and similarities of trends with rainfall suggest they are climate driven; however, large temporal variability makes it difficult to discern widely-expected anthropogenic climate change signals at this point in time. Trends in summer mean flows and recent winter means are at odds with those expected for anthropogenic climate change. High-flow indicators show strong and persistent positive trends, are less affected by variability and may provide earlier climate change signals than mean flows. The results highlight the caution required in using fixed periods of record for trend analysis, recognizing the trade-off between record length, network density and geographic coverage.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins

Citation Murphy, C., Harrigan, S., Hall, J., and Wilby, R.L., 2013. Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 755–772.  相似文献   

中国东部降水的极端特性及其气候特征分析     

齐庆华 《热带气象学报》2019,35(6):742-755

基于1960—2017年观测数据分析了中国东部降水极端特性的地区差异、季节和气候学特征及变化格局,探讨了与全球变化和区域气候变率的关联性。结果表明,极端性降水的演化与降水均值或总量的气候型态、降水集中性和持续性密切关联,尤其雨带迁移和雨型演替是影响极端性降水地区差异与时空演变的根本因素。气候变化背景下,中国东部极端性降水强度和频次变化存在较好的协同一致性,近60年来在长江以南,强度加大的地区极端性降水亦趋于频发。同时,两者季节特征和地区差异明显。春季东北地区及华北北部极端性降水强度和频次均有明显增加。近60年来夏季极端性降水强度和频次的趋势变化在长江以南均以增加为主,以北以下降为主。秋季极端性降水强度和频次在华北地区亦呈增加趋势。冬季华南和江南地区极端性降水强度和频次趋势变化均以增加为主。华北地区及以北和内蒙古的西部冬季极端性降水强度增加显著,但频次变化不明显。而东北地区北部冬季极端性降水在强度减小的情形下,其频次仍趋显著增加。特别是中国降水主要集中在夏季,自1980年代以来中国东部夏季多雨带南移,雨型以北方型和中间型占优,转换为以长江型和华南型为主,多雨带的极端性降水群发性强,影响指数显著增加。此外,太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)暖位相及ENSO暖事件期间,长江以北夏季极端性降水的影响指数会显著降低。而东亚夏季风的减弱则有利于长江中下游等地区夏季极端性降水的频发和群发,极端性降水强度加大,其影响的危险性趋于增强。   相似文献   

Temporal correlations and clustering of landslides     

Annette Witt  Bruce D. Malamud  Mauro Rossi  Fausto Guzzetti  Silvia Peruccacci 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(10):1138-1156

This paper examines temporal correlations and temporal clustering of a proxy historical landslide time series, 2255 reported landslides 1951–2002, for an area in the Emilia‐Romagna Region, Italy. Landslide intensity is measured by the number of reported landslides in a day (D_L) and in an ‘event’ (S_event) of consecutive days with landsliding. The non‐zero values in both time series D_L and S_event are unequally spaced in time, and have heavy‐tailed frequency‐size distributions. To examine temporal correlations, we use power‐spectral analysis (Lomb periodogram) and surrogate data analysis, confronting our original D_L and S_event time series with 1000 shuffled (uncorrelated) versions. We conclude that the landslide intensity series D_L has strong temporal correlations and S_event has likely temporal correlations. To examine temporal clustering in D_L and S_event, we consider extremes over different landslide intensity thresholds. We first examine the statistical distribution of interextreme occurrence times, τ, and find Weibull distributions with parameter γ << 1·0 [D_L] and γ < 1·0 [S_event]; thus D_L and S_event each have temporal correlations, but S_event to a lesser degree. We next examine correlations between successive interextreme occurrence times, τ. Using autocorrelation analysis applied to τ, combined with surrogate data analysis, we find for D_L linear correlations in τ, but for S_event inconclusive results. However, using Kendall's rank correlation analysis we find for both D_L and S_event the series of τ are strongly correlated. Finally, we apply Fano Factor analysis, finding for both D_L and S_event the timings of extremes over a given threshold exhibit a fractal structure and are clustered in time. In this paper, we provide a framework for examining time series where the non‐zero values are strongly unequally spaced and heavy‐tailed, particularly important in the Earth Sciences due to their common occurrence, and find that landslide intensity time series exhibit temporal correlations and clustering. Many landslide models currently are designed under the assumption that landslides are uncorrelated in time, which we show is false. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Uncertainty,entropy, scaling and hydrological stochastics. 2. Time dependence of hydrological processes and time scaling / Incertitude,entropie, effet d'échelle et propriétés stochastiques hydrologiques. 2. Dépendance temporelle des processus hydrologiques et échelle temporelle     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)

Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation and lag-one autocorrelation. In the first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and the state scaling behaviour were investigated. This second part of the study is devoted to joint distributional properties of hydrological processes. Specifically, it investigates the time dependence structure that may result from the ME principle and shows that the time scaling behaviour (or the Hurst phenomenon) may be obtained by this principle under the additional general condition that all time scales are of equal importance for the application of the ME principle. The omnipresence of the time scaling behaviour in numerous long hydrological time series examined in the literature (one of which is used here as an example), validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes.  相似文献   

Prediction of the impact of climate change on drought: an evaluation of six UK catchments using two stochastic approaches     

Christian Onof 《水文研究》2013,27(11):1600-1614

Under future climate scenarios, possible changes of drought patterns pose new challenges for water resources management. For quantifying and qualifying drought characteristics in the UK, the drought severity indices of six catchments are investigated and modelled by two stochastic methods: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models and the generalized linear model (GLM) approach. From the ARIMA models, autocorrelation structures are first identified for the drought index series, and the unexplained variance of the series is used to establish empirical relationships between drought and climate variables. Based on the ARIMA results, mean sea level pressure and possibly the North Atlantic Oscillation index are found to be significant climate variables for seasonal drought forecasting. Using the GLM approach, occurrences and amounts of rainfall are simulated with conditioning on climate variables. From the GLM‐simulated rainfall for the 1980s and 2080s, the probabilistic characteristics of the drought severity are derived and assessed. Results indicate that the drought pattern in the 2080s is less certain than for the 1961–1990 period, based on the Shannon entropy, but that droughts are expected to be more clustered and intermittent. The 10th and 50th quantiles of drought are likely higher in the 2080s scenarios, but there is no evidence showing the changes in the 90th quantile extreme droughts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献