An improvement of the mass flux convection parameterization scheme and its sensitivity tests for seasonal prediction over China     

PING Fan  GAO Shouting  WANG Huijun 《大气科学进展》2003,20(6):978-990

A modified cumulus parameterization scheme, suitable for use in a seasonal forecast model, is presented. This parameterization scheme is an improvement of the mass flux convection scheme developed by Gregory and Rowntree (1989; 1990). This convection scheme uses a “bulk” cloud model to present an ensemble of convective clouds, and aims to represent shallow, deep, and mid-level convection. At present,this convection scheme is employed in the NCC T63L20 model (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration). Simulation results with this scheme have revealed some deficiencies in the scheme,although to some extent, it improves the accuracy of the simulation. In order to alleviate the deficiencies and reflect the effect of cumulus convection in the actual atmosphere, the scheme is modified and improved.The improvements include (i) the full estimation of the effects of the large-scale convergence in the lower layer upon cumulus convection, (ii) the revision of the initial convective mass flux, and (iii) the regulation of convective-scale downdrafts. A comparison of the results obtained by using the original model and the modified one shows that the improvement and modification of the original convection scheme is successful in simulating the precipitation and general circulation field, because the modified scheme provides a good simulation of the main features of seasonal precipitation in China, and an analysis of the anomaly correlation eoetfieient between the simulation and the observations confirms the improved results.  相似文献   

福建省地倾斜固体潮特征及其动力学分析     

傅再扬  丁学仁  吴绍祖  郑永通 《华南地震》2004,24(3):42-47

利用福建地区厦门、漳州、莆田、南平、龙岩5个台站地倾斜固体潮观测资料,分别计算了地震平静期的倾斜固体潮潮汐变化特征量,并进行了对比分析;除此之外还对固体潮特征进行了地球动力学分析。结果表明,沿海地区海潮是决定倾斜固体潮特征的主要因素。  相似文献   

金沙江下游梯级水库运行后三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性     

高宇  任实  王海  吕超楠  赵汗青 《湖泊科学》2023,35(2):662-672

泥沙淤积问题直接影响着三峡水库的使用寿命及综合效益的发挥,研究其入库水沙特性对于解决水库泥沙淤积问题具有重要意义。根据水文站实测数据,分析了三峡水库入库水沙输移特性及来源组成变化,重点研究了金沙江下游梯级水库运行后的三峡水库高洪水期入库水沙特性。结果表明:2003—2021年,三峡水库入库泥沙集中于汛期的高洪水期,2013年以后该现象更为显著,泥沙来源也由金沙江为主转变为嘉陵江为主。寸滩站洪峰流量高于50000 m³/s的高洪水期三峡入库沙量显著大于30000～50000 m³/s区间的高洪水期,三峡水库泥沙调度关键在于上游发生编号洪水期间。三峡水库上游沱江或嘉陵江等支流发生流域性大洪水时,易引起高洪水期入库水沙出现“小水大沙”的特点。金沙江下游梯级水库运行后,三峡水库高洪水期入库泥沙大幅减少,中小洪水调度期间泥沙淤积量也大幅减小。研究结果可为三峡水库的泥沙精细化调度和长期高效使用提供基础数据支撑。  相似文献   

Phosphorus fractions and sorption dynamics in the sediments of two Ca-SO4 water reservoirs in the central Argentine Andes     

Jos&#; Gabriel Le&#;n  Fernando Luis Pedrozo  Pedro F&#;lix Temporetti 《国际泥沙研究》2017,32(3)

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成灌高铁运行对成都地磁台观测数据干扰测试     

钟李彬  林建  李雪浩  胡俊明  李国超  颜晓晔 《地震地磁观测与研究》2017,38(5):81-85

成都地磁台距成灌高铁运行线路垂直距离约1.5 km,使用数字化磁通门磁力仪GM4,在轨道沿线不同距离处进行野外测试。测试结果表明,轨道交通的运行对周围地磁观测环境产生干扰,干扰距离约6 km,干扰主要来自轨道泄露电流及输电线路产生的磁场。  相似文献   

Copula-based identification of the non-stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load     

Shengzhi Huang  Pei Li  Qiang Huang  Guoyong Leng 《国际泥沙研究》2017,32(2)

It is important to identify the non-stationarity in the relation between runoff and sediment load under the backdrop of the changing environment. This relation helps to further understand the mechanisms of runoff and sediment yield. A copula-based method was used to detect possible change points in the relation between runoff and sediment load in the Wei River Basin (WRB), China, where soil erosion is a very severe issue. The modified Mann-Kendall trend test method was applied to obtain the trends of runoff and sediment load spanning 1960–2010 at monthly and annual timescales. Finally, the causes of the identified non-stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load were roughly analyzed from the perspective of climate change and human activities. Results indicated that:(1) the runoff and sediment load in the Jinghe and Wei rivers were generally characterized by noticeably decreasing trends at both monthly and annual timescales;(2) both the Jinghe and Wei rivers had a common change point (2002), implying that the stationarity of the relation between runoff and sediment load in the Jinghe and Wei River was invalid; (3) human activities including increasing water consumption and growing application of soil conservation practices are dominant factors resulting in non-stationarity in the rela-tion between runoff and sediment load in the WRB. This study provides a new idea for identifying the non-stationarity of multivariate relation in the hydro-meteorological field under the background of the changing environment.  相似文献   

CAP1400核岛结构缩尺模型对地震反应影响分析     

李小军  韩杰  王晓辉  贺秋梅 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(2):241-253

针对核电厂CAP1400核岛结构地震反应问题,构建了核岛屏蔽厂房和辅助厂房整体结构的3个分析模型:原型和1/16、1/40缩尺模型,并在AP000谱和RG1.60谱地震动输入下进行了有限元模拟对比分析,探讨了振动台试验模型缩尺处理的合理性和精确性。研究表明,基于缩尺模型得到的结构自振频率相对于原型结构模型有所降低,降低幅度在8.5%以内;结构模型的缩尺对结构反应峰值加速度和高频（大于3Hz）加速度反应谱的影响较为显著,但对较低频（小于3Hz）的加速度反应谱影响较小;模型缩尺对结构不同方向反应的影响中,刚度越大的方向其影响越大。进一步将结构模型数值模拟结果与1/16缩尺模型的振动台试验结果进行了比较分析,试验给出的结构自振频率远低于模型数值模拟结果,但原型和1/16缩尺模型数值模拟得到的结构反应均与试验结果较为接近。基于模型数值模拟和振动台试验研究,认为对于缩尺比1/16或更大的模型可以忽略模型的缩尺效应。  相似文献   

近场强震动记录基线校正方法的振动台实验研究     

卢滔  胡国瑞  何福  郭迅  霍敬妍 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(3):625-634

为了获取近场永久位移,通常采用基线校正方法,对近场加速度记录进行基线校正并积分得到永久位移值,但这一结果主观性较强,其可靠性也往往缺乏验证。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种能产生包含永久位移振动过程的振动台实验方案,采用振动台加滑动机构的方法,模拟记录到永久位移台站测点的真实振动情况;在实验中分别采用加速度计、摄影测量方法分别直接得到加速度和位移时程,对加速度时程进行基线校正并积分得到位移时程,将其与直接获得的位移时程进行对比,以验证采用基线校正方法的有效性。实验结果表明,在实验室条件下采用现有的基线校正方法校正后,通过积分能得到可以接受的位移时程。  相似文献   

动三轴试验滞回曲线的椭圆拟合分析     

毛远凤  叶庆东  沈宇鹏 《震灾防御技术》2017,12(4):743-750

采用正弦波形循环荷载动三轴试验获取土的动剪切模量和阻尼比的数据处理过程中通常存在两个困难:一是因为试验中存在各种噪声使滞回曲线椭圆形态不明显;二是椭圆拟合会因方法不当出现不收敛或者误差大等情况。为了在一定程度上克服第一个困难,本文将滤波技术引入到对应力应变时间序列的处理中来;为了更好地拟合滞回曲线椭圆,本文结合了主成份分析技术与椭圆的几何拟合方法,通过计算椭圆焦点位置、长半轴长度等来确定拟合椭圆,结果表明,该方法容易线性化且相对稳定,值得在动三轴数据处理中进行推广。  相似文献   

Trend analysis of nutrient loadings in a large prairie catchment     

Luis Alejandro Morales-Marín  Kwok Pan Chun  Howard Simon Wheater  Karl-Erich Lindenschmidt 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(4):657-679

Nutrient loadings in many river catchments continue to increase due to rapid expansion of agriculture, urban and industrial development, and population growth. Nutrient enrichment of water bodies has intensified eutrophication which degrades water quality and ecosystem health. In this study, we carried out a trend analysis of total phosphorus and total nitrogen loads in the South Saskatchewan River (SSR) catchment using a novel approach to analyse nutrient time series. Seasonal analysis of trends at each of the water quality stations was performed to determine the relationships between annual flow regimes and nutrient loads in the catchment, in particular, the influence of the high spring runoff on nutrient export. Decadal analysis was also performed to determine the long-term relationships of nutrients with anthropogenic changes in the catchment. Although it was found that seasonal and historical variability of nutrient load trends is mainly determined by streamflow regime changes, there is evidence that increases in nitrogen concentration can also be attributed to anthropogenic changes.  相似文献