On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula     

Imtiyaz A. Parvez 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):397-412

The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula, it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude (M _w = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For M _w = 6.0, four zones namely Z1 (Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones namely␣Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate probabilities.  相似文献   

广州单站要素及特征曲线显示系统简介     

冯业荣 《广东气象》2001,(1):13-15

单站气象要素剖面图是日常预报业务中经常使用的工具之一。计算机绘制剖面图可做到快捷、美观和自动化，且能克服纸质剖面图存储中的诸多弊端，适宜长期保存。广州市单站要素及特征曲线显示系统除把纸绘剖面图的内容搬到屏幕外，还增加了一些物理量。系统可实时显示广州五山站、四个县级市、清远探空站、衡山站的基本资料，显示气压、温度、湿度等观测要素或清运探空站物理量的时间演变曲线。系统用VB5.0编写，目前已在业务上使用，成为广州市短期预报的一个参考工具。  相似文献   

Preparation and Certification of High-Grade Gold Ore Reference Materials (GAu 19-22)     

Tiexin Gu  Zhong Zhang  Chunshu Wang  Weidong Yan 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2001,25(1):153-158

Two types of gold deposit with both good homogeneity and a high-grade of gold were selected to prepare four gold ore reference materials (GAu-19,GAu-20,GAu-21 and GAu-22) by the Institute of Geophysical and Geochemical Exploration (IGGE),China.Seven laboratories participated in the certification programme. Volumetric methods for GAu19-21 and atomic absorption spectrometry for GAu-22 were used for the homogeneity testing,the coefficient of variation being found to be less than 3%.After sample digestion and preconcentration,the samples were analysed by flame atomic absorption spectrometry (AAS),colorimetry,neutron activation analysis (NAA)and volumetric analysis. The certified values for the gold concentration in GAu19-22 are 18.3 μg g -1, 32.3 μg g -1, 53.0 μg g -1 and 5.72 μg g -1,respectively.  相似文献   

Fault trace complexity, cumulative slip, and the shape of the magnitude-frequency distribution for strike-slip faults: a global survey   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Mark W. Stirling  Steven G. Wesnousky  Kunihiko Shimazaki 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,124(3):833-868

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An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook     

J. H. Barrett 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1992,6(3):151-165

An extreme value analysis of the flow of Burbage Brook is carried out by modelling peaks over a high threshold. The aims are to illustrate recently developed statistical techniques and to report on interesting features of the flow of the brook over a 58-year period. Peak flows are found to show marked seasonal variation and a downward trend. Then-year return level is estimated for various values ofn, and the reliability of the estimates is assessed.  相似文献   

震级特征图特点与a,b值关系     

陈修启  傅征祥 《地震》1993,(3):18-23

本文主要研究了a、b值的变化对震级特征图的影响。当a、b值的变化幅度不太大时,仍然可从震级特征图上识别出最小均匀震级等震级阈值;当a、b值的变化达到相当的幅度后,震级阈值点变模糊了。  相似文献   

TYPHOON ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST PACIFIC IN RELATION WITH EL NINO AND LA NINA EVENTS     

何敏  宋文玲  陈兴芳 《热带气象学报(英文版)》1999,5(2):153-162

Statistic and typical-year composition methods are used to study the northwest Pacific typhoon activities in relation with the EI Niño and La Niña events. The result indicates that the typhoon tends to be inactive in the EI Niño years and active in the La Niña years and it is also dependent on the onset and ending time and intensity of the events and areas of genesis of typhoons. With statistic features of the frequency of typhoon activity in the EI Niño and La Niña years and the time-lag correlation between the frequency and sea surface temperature(SST), useful information is provided for the prediction of typhoon occurrence. In addition, the singular values disassemble(SVD)method is applied to study the correlation between the geopotential field and SST field. The result shows that the air-sea coupling in the EI Niño years is unfavorable for the typhoon to develop. Which take place with a smaller number. Opposite situations are found with the La Niña years.  相似文献   

湘西南石英脉型金矿矿物流体包裹体pH值和Eh值的估算   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴湘滨  戴塔根  何绍勋 《大地构造与成矿学》1999,23(3):248-253

以湘西南石英脉型金矿床为例,研究ｐ Ｈ、Ｅｈ 估算值的结果表明利用围岩蚀变反应方程以及采用碱金属离子、卤素元素离子估算ｐＨ 值是不完善的。本文根据热力学原则（ 相平衡、电价中和） 提出了矿物流体包裹体成分体系计算ｐＨ 估算值的方法,并且讨论了测试包裹体时气体成分外逸是影响ｐＨ 和Ｅｈ 估算值的主要因素之一。  相似文献   

阜康典型荒漠C3植物稳定碳同位素值的环境分析   总被引：26，自引：3，他引：23  

陈拓  马健  冯虎元  何元庆  徐世健  强维亚  安黎哲 《干旱区地理》2002,25(4):342-345

通过对阜康典型荒漠C3植物稳定碳同位素值的分析。叶片炭同位素值在-23‰和-29‰之间变化,其中主要在-27‰附近波动。这与前人报道的世界上其他地区荒漠植物碳同位素值的变化非常一致。降水可以改变叶片碳同位素值的大小,降水越多,叶片碳同位素值越负,它们的变化幅度有物种的依赖性。叶片碳同位素值也受植物生长形式或期望寿命的影响,木本植物或寿命长的植物叶片碳同位素值要高。分析表明,利用该区土壤或陆相沉积中有机质碳同位素值可以判断气候的干湿变化：土壤或陆相沉积中有机质碳同位素值越高,气候则越干燥。  相似文献   

长三角经济高速发展地区土壤pH时空变化及其影响因素   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

邵学新  黄标  顾志权  钱卫飞  金洋  毕葵森  严连香 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2006,25(2):143-149

通过调查和分析长三角地区张家港市2004年和第二次土壤普查时(1980)的土壤pH,探讨了该市近20年来基于经济高速发展影响下的土壤pH变化及影响因素。结果表明,自第二次土壤普查以来,该市土壤pH变化明显。南部人为土地区绝大部分土壤pH值都下降了一个单位,平均值由7.39降至6.33;北部雏形土区,两个时期的土壤pH值分别为7.92和7.98。土壤pH的降低可能同该地区长期施用化学肥料、酸雨及工业酸性“三废”排放的增加有关。此外,土地利用和田间管理也对土壤pH变化起着较为重要的作用,而土壤地球化学性质差异则是导致南北地区土壤pH变化不同的内在因素。  相似文献