Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology     

H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996  相似文献   

The identifiability of parameters in a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcel van der Perk  Marc F. P. Bierkens 《Journal of Hydrology》1997,200(1-4):307-322

The identifiability of model parameters of a steady state water quality model of the Biebrza River and the resulting variation in model results was examined by applying the Monte Carlo method which combines calibration, identifiability analysis, uncertainty analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The water quality model simulates the steady state concentration profiles of chloride, phosphate, ammonium, and nitrate as a function of distance along a river. The water quality model with the best combination of parameter values simulates the observed concentrations very well. However, the range of possible modelled concentrations obtained for other more or less equally eligible combinations of parameter values is rather wide. This range in model outcomes reflects possible errors in the model parameters. Discrepancies between the range in model outcomes and the validation data set are only caused by errors in model structure, or (measurement) errors in boundary conditions or input variables. In this sense the validation procedure is a test of model capability, where the effects of calibration errors are filtered out. It is concluded that, despite some slight deviations between model outcome and observations, the model is successful in simulating the spatial pattern of nutrient concentrations in the Biebrza River.  相似文献   

Study on simulation of spatial correlative earthquake ground motion field     

Xiao-Jun Li  Feng-Xin Zhao  Yu-Xian Hu 《地震学报(英文版)》1997,10(2):267-271

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Barotropic local instability and severe storm process     

Dasheng Yang  Lan Sun 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》1997,40(3):259-268

By means of barotropic model, the characteristic and initial value problems are investigated to reveal the local two-dimensional barotropic instability of the nonuniform current to the dynamic mechanism of the formation of the Yangtze-Huaihe River severe storm in July 1991. Analytical theory and numerical experiment show that (i) the unstable developing modes are chiefly the two periods of about 44 d and 10 d, which are fundamentally consistent with that of the precipitation change of the Yangtze-Huaihe River. (ii) The growth rate of the local perturbation is dominated by the meridional wave numbern = 1–5 and zonal wave numberk = 1–12, i.e. the severe storm over the Yangtze-Huaihe River results from the interaction of the systems at different latitudes and waves of different scales, (iii) The perturbation over the Yangtze-Huaihe River possesses the property of local intensification, which slowly migrates westward over the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze-Huaihe River. (iv) The growth rate of the instability, especially the propagation velocity of the perturbation, is sensitive to the external parameters ū and α. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.  相似文献   

用模糊综合评判法评价昌宁盆地地下水水质     

邹立芝  魏余广 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1997,(3)

利用模糊综合评判法对昌宁盆地地下水水质进行了评价，并指出为确保评价的精度，在进行模糊评判中，建议四种Ａ·Ｒ复合运算方法联合应用，综合分析  相似文献   

提高地方地震台网地震速报水平初探     

王登伟  管勇  马付红 《四川地震》2004,(2):12-15,20

总结了西昌遥测地震台网地震速报处理技术经验，针对地方台网地震速报中常出现的地震参数误差提出了改进思路。  相似文献   

试论会计信息的作用     

李素芳 《中国煤田地质》2004,16(5):67-68

立足会计信息在国民经济中的地位，分析了会计信息的作用，提出了会计信息质量是建立诚信社会的保障。  相似文献   

造成大浪淀水库富营养化主要因子及变化规律分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

胡荣花  李兰贵  赵卫国  牛建辉 《地下水》2004,26(3):223-225

水资源短缺是全球普遍关注的问题,水质恶化更加剧了这一问题的严重性.本文针对河北省大浪淀水库投入运营后水质变化的情况,论述了水体产生富营养化的原因及危害,分析了影响大浪淀水库水质的主要因子及其变化规律,提出了改善水体环境、提高饮用水质量的防治方法.  相似文献   

晋城境内河流污染现状分析及防治对策   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

申富生  任焕莲 《地下水》2004,26(4):242-244,289

以2003年枯水期化验资料为基础,对现状条件下的晋城市地表水环境质量进行了分析评价,并采用综合污染指数法定量地对河流污染程度给予了分析评价,发现地表水体大部分严重污染、地下水也不同程度受到污染,分析了污染原因并提出防治措施.  相似文献   

Heat influx and exhumation of the Shimanto accretionary complex: Miocene fission track ages from the Kii Peninsula, southwest Japan     

Noriko  Hasebe  Hiroaki  Watanabe 《Island Arc》2004,13(4):533-543

Abstract   To determine how local geological events contributed to the evolution of accretionary complexes and eventual exposure of rocks with different structural levels, geochronological mapping was carried out using fission track (FT) analysis at the Kii Peninsula, southwest Japan. At this site, the original zonal structure of Cretaceous accretionary complexes parallel to the subduction zone is disturbed by the northward projection of the Shimanto accretionary complex. Twenty-six zircon FT ages were obtained from an area of ∼12 km in an east–west direction and ∼15 km in a north–south direction, and classified into three groups: (i) ages ∼15 Ma (range ∼10–20 Ma), which are distributed along the northwest–southeast valley; (ii) ages of ∼50 Ma in the northwest of the study area; and (iii) ages older than those in Groups 1 and 2. Based on results from eight zircon FT length distributions, the Miocene ages appear to be the result of spatial variations in heat influx and cooling after the regional exhumation of the area, as recorded by FT ages of ∼50 Ma.  相似文献