基于GIS的农业气候资源区域化问题研究——以甘肃省为例   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

封志明  郑海霞  杨艳昭 《地理科学》2004,24(4):444-451

在农业气候资源研究中,站点数据的区域化问题是进行资源优化配置和高效利用的一个重要环节。通过采用逐步回归分析与空间插值相结合的方法,以甘肃省及其相邻省区的112个站点1970~2001年31年的月平均温度和降水数据以及计算得到的月平均太阳辐射和潜在蒸散量为数据源,对甘肃省气候资源进行了区域化。对每种气象要素都采用了两种空间插值方法,并对插值结果运用了绝对验证和相对验证两种方法进行了验证和对比。结果表明:温度残差的平均绝对误差(MAE)是Spline< IDW, 其值分别为:0.744℃和0.754℃,平均相对误差(RME)分别为:9.56%和9.66%。降水的平均绝对误差是Kriging温度>潜在蒸散量>降水,但都达到了较高的精度。  相似文献   

支持向量机对采空区稳定时间的预计     

李爱兵  尹彦波 《岩土力学》2005,26(Z2):231-233

支持向量机是基于结构风险最小化原理的机器学习技术,在广泛收集金属矿山采空区失稳塌陷时间资料的基础上,建立了基于支持向量机的采空区稳定时间的预计模型。通过对采空区稳定时间测试样本的预测研究表明,用支持向量机来预计采空区的稳定时间是可行的。  相似文献   

Propagating uncertainty from catchment experiments to estimates of streamflow reduction by invasive alien plants in southwestern South Africa     

Glenn R. Moncrieff  Jasper A. Slingsby  David C. Le Maitre 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14161

Long-term catchment experiments from South Africa have demonstrated that afforestation of grasslands and shrublands significantly reduces surface-water runoff. These results have guided the country's forestry policy and the implementation of a national Invasive Alien Plant (IAP) control programme for the past few decades. Unfortunately, woody IAP densities continue to increase, compounding existing threats to water security from population growth and climatic change. Decision makers need defensible estimates of the impacts of afforestation or invasions on runoff to weigh up alternative land use options, or guide investment of limited resources into ecosystem restoration through IAP clearing versus engineering-based water-augmentation schemes. Existing attempts to extrapolate the impacts observed in catchment afforestation experiments to broad-scale IAP impacts give no indication of uncertainty. Globally, the uncertainty inherent in the results from paired-catchment experiments is seldom propagated into subsequent analyses making use of these data. We present a fully reproducible Bayesian model that propagates uncertainty from input data to final estimates of changes in streamflow when extrapolating from catchment experiments to broader landscapes. We apply our model to South Africa's catchment experiment data, estimating streamflow losses to plantations and analogous plant invasions in the catchments of southwestern South Africa, including uncertainty. We estimate that regional streamflow is reduced by 304 million m³ or 4.14% annually as a result of IAPs, with an upper estimate of 408 million m³ (5.54%) and a lower estimate of 267 million m³ (3.63%). Our model quantifies uncertainty associated with all parameters and their contribution to overall uncertainty, helping guide future research needs. Acknowledging and quantifying inherent uncertainty enables more defensible decisions regarding water resource management.  相似文献   

Regional regression models for hydro‐climate change impact assessment          下载免费PDF全文

Rabi Gyawali  Veronica W. Griffis  David W. Watkins  Neil M. Fennessey 《水文研究》2015,29(8):1972-1985

Hydro‐climatic impacts in water resources systems are typically assessed by forcing a hydrologic model with outputs from general circulation models (GCMs) or regional climate models. The challenges of this approach include maintaining a consistent energy budget between climate and hydrologic models and also properly calibrating and verifying the hydrologic models. Subjective choices of loss, flow routing, snowmelt and evapotranspiration computation methods also increase watershed modelling uncertainty and thus complicate impact assessment. An alternative approach, particularly appealing for ungauged basins or locations where record lengths are short, is to predict selected streamflow quantiles directly from meteorological variable output from climate models using regional regression models that also include physical basin characteristics. In this study, regional regression models are developed for the western Great Lakes states using ordinary least squares and weighted least squares techniques applied to selected Great Lakes watersheds. Model inputs include readily available downscaled GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3. The model results provide insights to potential model weaknesses, including comparatively low runoff predictions from continuous simulation models that estimate potential evapotranspiration using temperature proxy information and comparatively high runoff projections from regression models that do not include temperature as an explanatory variable. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

最大熵模型的巴基斯坦遗址预测分布研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴瑞婵  甘淑  于丽君  朱建峰  刘芳 《测绘科学》2021,46(3):96-103

针对巴基斯坦的遗址分布问题,该文通过对巴基斯坦的遗址分布进行预测,基于674处遗址点,选取DEM、土壤类型、土地利用类型、离水距等环境变量作为自变量,构建Maxent遗址预测模型,利用Logistic模型验证Maxent模型的精度,并用Kvamme增益值进一步验证两模型的精度。结果表明,印度河流域遗址分布概率高,北部高地地区遗址分布概率低。Maxent模型和Logistic模型都具有较高的准确度,而Maxent模型的增益值远大于Logistic模型,模型精度更高;在局部尺度下,Maxent模型表现更加稳定,其增益值基本保持不变,而Logistic模型在不同的子区域内增益值并不稳定。Maxent模型对于小规模数据集的预测效果也优于Logistic模型。  相似文献   

基于CART决策树的高分二号洞庭湖区湿地分类方法     

陈磊士  高霞霞  廖玉芳  邓剑波  周碧 《测绘通报》2021,(6):12-15

高分卫星遥感湿地分类的关键在于解决“同物异谱、异物同谱”难题。本文将当前应用前景广泛的亚米级国产高分二号（GF-2）影像和CART决策树面向对象分类算法相结合,以湖南沅江为例进行洞庭湖区典型湿地的分类提取工作,选取包括光谱信息、几何特征、地形特征和纹理特征等多维对象特征对分类器进行训练,构建了多维特征湿地分类方法。试验区总体分类精度优于传统方法,可为基于GF-2影像的洞庭湖湿地分类提供技术参考。  相似文献   

最优尺度回归在储层孔隙度主控因素分析中的应用          下载免费PDF全文

马鹏杰  佟昕  张世奇  慕小水 《沉积与特提斯地质》2015,35(3):68-74

本文以实测物性、粒度分析及铸体薄片鉴定为基础,结合对东濮凹陷濮卫地区沙二-沙四段储层孔隙度影响因素的分析,利用最优尺度回归方法,定量分析了储层孔隙度的主控因素。研究表明,最优尺度回归可以简便快捷地定量分析多因素对孔隙度的重要程度。分析结果显示各类影响因素重要性排序为:含油级别、层位、胶结物含量、储层与膏盐岩位置关系、压实减孔率及分选系数。成岩作用早期,分选性决定了储层的初始孔隙,压实作用是孔隙度减小的最主要的原因;成岩作用中后期,烃类充注是储层孔隙度得以保存的最主要的原因。  相似文献   

Improving the performance of precipitation outputs from Global Climate Models to predict monthly and seasonal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent     

《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2015,347(2):53-63

Skilful prediction of the monthly and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over India at a smaller spatial scale is a major challenge for the scientific community. The present study is aimed at achieving this objective by hybridising two mathematical techniques, namely synthetic superensemble (SSE) and supervised principal component regression (SPCR) on six state-of-the art Global Climate Models (GCMs). The performance of the mathematical model is evaluated using correlation analysis, the root mean square error, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index. Results feature reasonable improvement over central India, which is a zone of maximum rainfall activity in the summer monsoon season. The study also highlights improvement in the monthly prediction of rainfall over raw GCMs (15–20% improvement) with exceptional improvement in July. The developed model is also examined for anomalous years of monsoon and it is found that the model is able to capture the signs of anomalies over different gridpoints of the Indian domain.  相似文献   

基于Excel平台土壤含水量多元回归预测模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

邹文安  姜波  张薇 《水文》2015,35(2):65-69

土壤含水量是表述土壤干湿程度,反映旱情最直接的重要指标。土壤含水量预测能够反映未来某一时段农牧业旱情发展趋势,为开展旱情预警、各级领导和政府部门指挥抗旱减灾提供决策性依据。以降水、蒸发、风速等实测信息源为影响因子,以Excel为技术平台,创建了土壤含水量多元回归预测模型。该预测模型创建方法简单易行,便于改造和移植,有进一步推广价值。  相似文献   

Use of evolutionary computing for modelling some complex problems in geotechnical engineering     

Mohamed A. Shahin 《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2015,10(2):109-125

In this paper, the feasibility of using evolutionary computing for solving some complex problems in geotechnical engineering is investigated. The paper presents a relatively new technique, i.e. evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR), for modelling three practical applications in geotechnical engineering including the settlement of shallow foundations on cohesionless soils, pullout capacity of small ground anchors and ultimate bearing capacity of pile foundations. The prediction results from the proposed EPR models are compared with those obtained from artificial neural network (ANN) models previously developed by the author, as well as some of the most commonly available methods. The results indicate that the proposed EPR models agree well with (or better than) the ANN models and significantly outperform the other existing methods. The advantage of EPR technique over ANNs is that EPR generates transparent and well-structured models in the form of simple and easy-to-use hand calculation formulae that can be readily used by practising engineers.  相似文献