参数的期望估计及其在形变分析中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄杰 《华北地震科学》1997,15(2):25-31

利用“参数的期望估计”能准确定位、定量粗差及参数的期望估计不受粗差影响折特殊性质,寻找地壳变形区域和不变形区域,以确定拟稳点,进而进行拟稳变换,分析地菜变,将是一种有效方法。  相似文献   

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析     

石凤云  唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。  相似文献   

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garnett P. Williams  Brent M. Troutman 《Mathematical Geology》1990,22(8):1027-1049

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.  相似文献   

Reservoir description using dynamic parameterisation selection with a combined stochastic and gradient search     

Lars Kristian Nielsen  Sam Subbey  Mike Christie  Trond Mannseth 《Computational Geosciences》2006,10(3):321-342

There is a correspondence between flow in a reservoir and large scale permeability trends. This correspondence can be derived by constraining reservoir models using observed production data. One of the challenges in deriving the permeability distribution of a field using production data involves determination of the scale of resolution of the permeability. The Adaptive Multiscale Estimation (AME) seeks to overcome the problems related to choosing the resolution of the permeability field by a dynamic parameterisation selection. The standard AME uses a gradient algorithm in solving several optimisation problems with increasing permeability resolution. This paper presents a hybrid algorithm which combines a gradient search and a stochastic algorithm to improve the robustness of the dynamic parameterisation selection. At low dimension, we use the stochastic algorithm to generate several optimised models. We use information from all these produced models to find new optimal refinements, and start out new optimisations with several unequally suggested parameterisations. At higher dimensions we change to a gradient-type optimiser, where the initial solution is chosen from the ensemble of models suggested by the stochastic algorithm. The selection is based on a predefined criterion. We demonstrate the robustness of the hybrid algorithm on sample synthetic cases, which most of them were considered insolvable using the standard AME algorithm.  相似文献   

Comparative Seismic Risk Studies for German Earthquake Regions on the Basis of the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98     

Jochen Schwarz  Mathias Raschke  Holger Maiwald 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):259-282

Within the framework of recent research projects, basic tools for GIS-based seismic risk assessment technologies were developed and applied to the building stock and regional particularities of German earthquake regions. Two study areas are investigated, being comparable by the level of seismic hazard and the hazard-consistent scenario events (related to mean return periods of 475, 2475 and 10000 years). Significant differences exist with respect to the number of inhabitants, the grade and extent of urbanisation, the quality and quantity of building inventory: the case study of Schmölln in Eastern Thuringia seems to be representative for the majority of smaller towns in Germany, the case study of Cologne (Köln) stands for larger cities. Due to the similarities of hazard and scenario intensities, the considerable differences do not only require proper decisions concerning the appropriate methods and acceptable efforts, they enable conclusions about future research strategies and needs for disaster reduction management. Not least important, results can sharpen the focus of public interest. Seismic risk maps are prepared for different scenario intensities recognising the scatter and uncertainties of site-dependent ground motion and also of the applied vulnerability functions. The paper illustrates the impact of model assumptions and the step-wise refinements of input variables like site conditions, building stock or vulnerability functions on the distribution of expected building damage within the study areas. Furthermore, and in contrast to common research strategies, results support the conclusion that in the case of stronger earthquakes the damage will be of higher concentration within smaller cities like Schmölln due to the site-amplification potential and/or the increased vulnerability of the building stock. The extent of damage will be pronounced by the large number of masonry buildings for which lower vulnerability classes have to be assigned. Due to the effect of deep sedimentary layers and the composition of building types, the urban centre of Cologne will be less affected by an earthquake of comparable intensity.  相似文献   

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1     

Jo R?islien  Henning Omre 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(7):821-849

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.  相似文献   

Gold mining in Ghana's forest reserves: a report on the current debate     

Gavin Hilson  Frank Nyame 《Area》2006,38(2):175-185

This paper examines the debate surrounding a recent decision made by the Ghanaian government to permit gold exploration – and potentially, mining – in 'protected' forest reserves. In 2001, four mining companies were awarded mineral exploration concessions in forested regions of the country, and have since put forward applications to mine for gold. Notwithstanding the sharp divide in opinion on the issue, the continued uncertainty surrounding the implications of the proposed activities makes further research on the ground imperative in the short term. Work aiming to elicit indigenous perspectives on the projects, as well as research that facilitates dialogue between and/or among stakeholder parties, should be prioritized.  相似文献   

水气两相流系统K-S-P模型参数反演的最优估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

薛强  冯夏庭  梁冰  刘建军 《水科学进展》2005,16(4):488-493

应用渗流力学和参数反演辨识最优化理论,建立了水气两相流控制方程,给出了控制两相流系统K-S-P模型参数之间的本构关系,并对其中的相关参数进行数值反演辨识,得出待求参数的最优估计值。对不同质地土壤的实验测试值进行对比分析,其结果吻合较好,验证了模型的适定性和可靠性,解决了实验数据处理以及结果对初值的敏感性问题,并且该数值方法可通过多组初值参数进行数值实验,结合实验结果来满足实际工程的需求。这不仅对非饱和带内污染物传输、气藏工程试井计算、填埋气体的释放以及挥发性有机污染物的去污分析中两相流数值计算提供基础,而且对K-S-P本构关系之间参数的确定提供了可靠的理论依据。  相似文献   

GIS叠置图层方差分量的极大似然估计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王新洲  游扬声  刘星  史文中 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2005,30(10):892-896

针对GIS叠置中的同名点,以维希特分布密度为似然函数,提出了各图层方差分量的极大似然估计方法。该方法不依赖残差,不需要迭代就能估计未知参数和方差分量。  相似文献