稀土元素示踪法在坡面土壤侵蚀垂直分布研究中的应用   总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13       下载免费PDF全文

刘普灵  武春龙  琚彤军  杨明义 《水科学进展》2001,12(3):331-335

通过野外全坡长侵蚀小区试验,证明了稀土元素示踪法在土壤侵蚀垂直分布研究中的可应用性。结果表明该径流小区产沙强度坡长存在三种变化模式:增长型,增长 递减型和波动型,其形成机理可能与径流过程有关。利用稀土元素在坡面的再分析,初步建立了估算坡面沟蚀率的关系式。  相似文献   

Confidence Intervals of Quantiles in Hydrology Computed by an Analytical Method     

Baâ  Khalidou M.  Díaz-Delgado  Carlos  Caârsteanu  Alin 《Natural Hazards》2001,24(1):1-12

Fitting probability distributions to hydrologic data samples is widely used for quantile estimation purposes. The estimated quantile (X^_T) is related to a return period (T). The confidence interval associated with each of the estimates has been calculated empirically, up until now, supposing that the quantile estimator is normally distributed. In this study, it is shown that the confidence interval follows a normal distribution only in the central part of the distribution. The real confidence limits are computed analytically, by defining and integrating the probability density function of the confidence interval. The results with an important number of hydrologic samples show that the upper confidence limits are significantly underestimated towards the tail of the distribution, when determined using the normality approximation for the quantile estimator.  相似文献   

2050年前气候变暖冰川萎缩对水资源影响情景预估   总被引：42，自引：34，他引：42  

施雅风 《冰川冻土》2001,23(4):333-341

根据有不确定性的综合预测 ,到 2 0 5 0年左右青藏高原温度可比 2 0世纪末升高 2 .5℃左右 ,其导致冰川强烈消融的夏季升温为 1.4℃ ,将使平衡线上升 10 0m以上 .冰舌区消融冰量超过积累区冰运动来的冰量 ,冰川出现变薄后退 ,初期以变薄为主融水量增加 ,后期冰川面积大幅度减少 ,融水量衰退 ,至冰川消亡而停止 .考虑冰川大小 ,冰川类型响应气候变暖的敏感性有重大差别 ,应用新编中国冰川目录的统计数据 ,选择若干区域 ,预估 2 0 5 0年前冰川萎缩对水资源影响情景 .祁连山北麓河西地区 ,天山北麓准噶尔盆地南缘 ,天山南麓吐鲁番 哈密盆地的多数出山河流的冰川 ,以面积小于 2km2 者占绝对优势 ,对气候变暖最为敏感 ,衰退迅速 ,本世纪初期出现融水量高峰 ,中期融水量减少 ,对每条河流的影响以 10 6～ 10 7m3 ·a-1计 .少数流域如疏勒河、玛纳斯河等 ,冰川融水量占河川径流 1/ 3以上 ,有若干 5～ 30km2 左右中等规模冰川存在 ,预期至本世纪中期才出现融水高峰 ,融水增加值以 10 8m3 ·a-1计 .塔里木盆地周围高山冰川总面积达 2 2 0 0 9km2 ,有面积超过 10 0km2 、冰舌为厚表覆盖的大冰川 2 2条 ,退缩缓慢 ,冰川融水量在叶尔羌河、玉龙喀什河与阿克苏河等占 5 0 %～ 80 % .现在塔里木河干流主要靠天山西南部  相似文献   

Anisotropy of the upper mantle in Chinese mainland and its vicinity   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

刘希强  周蕙兰  李红  季爱东 《地震学报(英文版)》2001,14(4):359-370

IntroductionAnisotropy is a universal phenomenon in the upper mantle. The mechanisms, which cause elastic anisotropy of in-situ rocks, include lattice preferred orientation of the minerals composing the rocks and preferred orientation of magma chambers. Lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of olivine is widely believed to be the dominant cause of the upper mantle anisotropy. The observational results of the upper mantle anisotropy can be explained by tectonic process relating to plate motion.…  相似文献   

The channel-geometry method: Guidelines and applications     

Geraldene Wharton 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1995,20(7):649-660

All river engineering schemes require flood discharge estimates as part of the design and appraisal process. Unfortunately, continuous measurement of flood discharges is limited to those river sites with instrumented gauging stations, which constitute only a small proportion of channel reaches where information is required. Therefore, considerable research effort has been devoted to the development of reliable indirect techniques of flood discharge estimation. Research on the interrelationship of stream channel geometry and river discharge has provided the basis for an indirect method of flood estimation – the channel-geometry method – which employs river channel dimensions alone to estimate discharge characteristics at ungauged river sites. Channel-geometry equations are developed empirically by relating streamflow data from gauging stations and channel dimensions measured from natural river reaches in the vicinity of the gauge, and take the form of power function relations. Once regional channel-geometry equations have been defined, a channel width or channel capacity measurement is the only variable needed to estimate the flood flow characteristics at a specified river site. The method is useful as an alternative to traditional catchment-based approaches or as a rapid reconnaissance technique. In addition to the application for flood discharge prediction, channel-geometry equations could prove helpful in the management of river channels, first, by providing a basis for assessing local deviations in the channel form–discharge relation, deviations which could be employed as indicators of the sensitivity of particular stretches of river channel to change, and secondly, in the computation of natural channel dimensions for use in river channel design and river restoration.  相似文献   

骨龄评定统计模型的建立     

黄幼才  刘友光  徐亚明  郭祥瑞 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》1995,(3)

介绍了手腕骨的筛选，手腕骨发育信息的量化和获取，回归模型的建立和稳健化方法。  相似文献   

GPS在平面控制网加密应用中的若干问题   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

路伯祥 《四川测绘》1995,18(1):9-12

本文讨论ＧＰＳ在平面控制网加密应用中坐标转换的各种方法，综合实例对这些方法进行了评述，产对精度估计中的问题进行了分析。  相似文献   

Automatic parameter estimation applied on a groundwater model: The problem of structure identification     

F. Aschenbrenner  A. Ostin 《Environmental Geology》1995,25(3):205-210

The properties of a Pleistocene aquifer located in NW Germany were evaluated by means of an inverse two-dimensional numerical model in the vertical plane. The steady-state drawdown recorded at the end of a pumping test was used to calibrate the model with a Gauss-Newton parameter estimation method. The results were analyzed within a formal statistical procedure by means of eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Although a mathematically meaningful value for the standard error can be obtained, the resulting set of permeabilities depends strongly upon the choice of the zonation pattern.  相似文献   

Givens-Gentleman正交变换及其在卫星激光测距三级复弧估计技术中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

张瑞华 《测绘学报》1999,28(3):221-225

本文详细介绍了利用不求平方根的Ｇｉｖｅｎｓ－Ｇｅｎｔｌｅｍａｎ正交变换解线性无偏差最小方差估计问题的基本原理以及各种方法在卫星激光测距三级复弧估计技术中的具体应用,给出了计算估值协方差的一组新的公式。  相似文献   

Application of soft-computing techniques in forecasting sediment load and concentration     

Sina Ghanbarynamin  Majid Zaremehrjardy 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(13):2309-2321

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates conventional and soft-computing methods for the estimation of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and load (SSL) in rivers. Frequently used methods of sediment rate curve (SRC) and multi-nonlinear regression, and soft-computing methods of multi-layer perceptron, multi-linear regression and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system are implemented using various hydrological and hydraulic parameters for the Little Kickapoo Creek Watershed, Illinois, USA. All methods performed equally well in the estimation of SSL, without any noticeable outperformance from any from the methods. However, the application of soft-computing methods decreased SSC estimation errors considerably as compared to the results of SRC. The results are significant in the way they reconcile traditionally used hydrological parameters into the soft-computing methods. Overall, soft-computing methods are recommended for the estimation of SSC in rivers because of their reasonably better performance and ease of implementation.  相似文献