中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异、空间溢出效应及影响因素   总被引：17，自引：2，他引：15  

王少剑  苏泳娴  赵亚博 《地理学报》2018,73(3):414-428

基于1992-2013年中国城市遥感模拟反演碳排放数据,采用空间自相关、空间马尔科夫矩阵和动态空间面板数据模型,在同时考虑碳排放的时空滞后效应和不同地理经济空间权重矩阵的条件下,对城市碳排放的演化路径和关键影响因素进行了定量识别和减排政策探讨。研究表明,中国城市能源消费碳排放的区域差异正逐步缩小,空间上呈现出明显的高排放俱乐部集聚特征,同时碳排放类型演化具有明显的路径依赖特征;面板数据模型估计结果表明经济增长与人均碳排放呈现显著的倒“U”型曲线关系,而绝大多数城市的人均碳排放处于随经济发展而增加的阶段,二产偏重的经济结构和投资的粗放增长共同正向作用于城市碳排放,而人口的集聚效应、技术水平的提升、对外开放度和公路运输强度的增加则共同抑制城市碳排放水平的提高。因此未来要抑制促增因素和发挥促降因素的作用才能有效降低城市碳排放;优化产业结构、精简粗放投资、增加研发强度以及提升公路通达性是未来实现中国城市节能减排的有效途径。  相似文献   

地表移动观测站实测资料数据缺失的修复研究     

王涛  孙超 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(8):207-210

地表移动观测站的实测资料中测点的观测数据(如高程数据)缺失,不仅影响实测资料的完整性,更会对地表移动规律和参数分析产生较大影响,有必要对其修复方法进行研究。本文以某矿区A工作面地表移动观测站完整的实测资料为基础,利用插值和曲线拟合的方法对假定缺失的数据进行修复分析,通过研究表明,利用上述方法对处于非下沉关键期的缺失数据进行修复是可行的。  相似文献   

Green growth and climate change: conceptual and empirical considerations     

Miklós Antal  Jeroen C.J.M. Van Den Bergh 《Climate Policy》2016,16(2):165-177

The feasibility of green growth is studied in the context of climate change. As carbon emissions are easier to quantify than many other types of environmental pressure, it will be possible to reach a more definite conclusion about the likelihood of green growth than has been possible in the long-standing historical debate on growth versus the environment. We calculate the rate of decoupling between gross domestic product (GDP) and GHG emissions needed to achieve internationally agreed climate targets. Next, eight arguments are considered that together suggest that fast decoupling will be very difficult. Subsequently, we examine the main lines of research used by proponents of green growth to support their viewpoint, including theoretical arguments, exercises with integrated assessment models, and studies of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It will be concluded that decoupling as a main or single strategy to combine economic and environmental aims should be judged as taking a very large risk with our common future. To minimize this risk we need to seriously consider reducing our dependence on growth. This requires a fundamental change of focus in both economic research and policy.

Policy relevance

Currently, green growth is the only strategy of mainstream economists and policy makers to address climate change. This article demonstrates that such an exclusive focus is very risky due to the scale of the challenge and the existence of various barriers to the fast decoupling of GHG emissions from economic output. It seems that the only option to combine environmental and economic objectives is reducing the dependence of our economies on growth. Finding strategies in line with this requires a fundamental change of focus in both economic research and policy.  相似文献   

利用GIS技术对莲花电站水库库容曲线复核分析     

孙玉兵 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(4):173-174,177

通过以GPS载波相位差分定位技术和回声测深仪等组成的三维数据自动采集系统,按照规定的测线,快速准确地采集高密度、高精度水下地形数据,获取水底测点平面和深度信息,利用以ArcGIS为平台的数据处理编辑软件,制作水下地形图、计算库容、生成库容曲线,并与初设库容曲线进行复核分析,为探查泥沙淤积对库容的影响、节能增效提供详实可靠的基础数据。  相似文献   

干旱地区高盐度水面蒸发试验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李阳  贾瑞亮  周金龙  李巧  高业新 《水文》2016,36(6):24-27

通过新疆昌吉地下水均衡试验场中的不同矿化度EФ20蒸发器水面蒸发试验研究,得出高盐度水面蒸发的一般规律。通过数据对比分析,表明在外部环境条件相同时,高盐度水面蒸发量与矿化度之间呈显著负相关关系,即矿化度越高,水面蒸发越微弱,反之则蒸发越强烈,这主要是由于水体中的盐分子对水分子的吸引力作用造成的。根据实测数据拟合出水面蒸发量与矿化度之间的函数关系,并计算出高盐度水面蒸发折算系数。  相似文献   

基于动库容曲线的水库调洪高水位查算方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

张俊  闵要武  陈力  鲍正风  陈璐 《水文》2016,36(5):63-68

河道型水库因动库容特性显著,传统的静库容调洪方法难以适用,研究动库容调洪方法是亟待解决的问题。当坝前水位爬升到最高点时,库区内的洪水演进到达一种临界状态,库区内的水文、水力条件相对稳定,在出库流量和入库流量一定的情况下,可望获得最高坝前水位与同时刻库容之间良好的对应关系。依托三峡库区水文水动力耦合预报模型,建立了一组以出库流量、入库流量为参数的动库容曲线,以供调洪时快速查算最高坝前水位。采用2009年以来三峡水库16场场次洪水资料,检验所建动库容曲线的合理性。结果表明,各场洪水的最高库水位查算值与实况平均偏差仅0.20m,证明建立的基于动库容曲线的三峡水库最高库水位查算方法具有较好的实践价值。  相似文献   

基于云推理的年降水量预测          下载免费PDF全文

高盼盼  钱会  乔亮 《水文》2016,36(3):29-33

预测未来年的降水量是对旱情做出预警并采取合理抗旱措施的重要前提,但如何获得准确的预测值一直是研究的热点。降水随时间的变化通常具有随机性和模糊性,而云模型是在传统模糊数学和概率统计的基础上建立起来的,能够实现不确定概念与定量数值之间的自然转化,通过年降水量历史数据及当前趋势挖掘并制定出相应规则,从而推理获得未来年份的降水量。在此基础上,提出了基于小波消噪预处理和理论频率曲线修正的云推理预测模型,并将其运用到了西安市年降水量的预测当中。从所得结果来看,降水量预测值能较好的反映其年际变化规律,模型预测精度得到了很大提高,基本可将误差控制在30%以内。  相似文献   

The effects of soil organic matter on soil water retention and plant water use in a meadow of the Sierra Nevada,CA          下载免费PDF全文

Kyle J. Ankenbauer  Steven P. Loheide II 《水文研究》2017,31(4):891-901

Tuolumne Meadows is a groundwater dependent ecosystem in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA, that is threatened by hydrologic impacts that may lead to a substantial loss of organic matter in the soil. In order to provide a scientific basis for management of this type of ecosystem, this paper quantifies the effect of soil organic content on soil water retention and water use by plants. First, we show a substantial dependence of soil water retention on soil organic content by correlating Van Genuchten soil water retention parameters with soil organic content, independent of soil texture. Then, we demonstrate the impact of organic content on plants by simulating the degree to which root water uptake is affected by soil water retention with the use of a physically based numerical model of variably saturated groundwater flow. Our results indicate that the increased water retention by soil organic matter contributes as much as 8.8 cm to transpiration, or 35 additional water‐stress free days, during the dry summer when plants experience increased water stress.  相似文献   

Bivariate simulation using copula and its application to probabilistic pile settlement analysis     

Dian‐Qing Li  Xiao‐Song Tang  Kok‐Kwang Phoon  Yi‐Feng Chen  Chuang‐Bing Zhou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(6):597-617

This paper aims to propose a procedure for modeling the joint probability distribution of bivariate uncertain data with a nonlinear dependence structure. First, the concept of dependence measures is briefly introduced. Then, both the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion are adopted for identifying the best‐fit copula. Thereafter, simulation of copulas and bivariate distributions based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented. Practical application for serviceability limit state reliability analysis of piles is conducted. Finally, four load–test datasets of load–displacement curves of piles are used to illustrate the proposed procedure. The results indicate that the proposed copula‐based procedure can model and simulate the bivariate probability distribution of two curve‐fitting parameters underlying the load–displacement models of piles in a more general way. The simulated load–displacement curves using the proposed procedure are found to be in good agreement with the measured results. In most cases, the Gaussian copula, often adopted out of expedience without proper validation, is not the best‐fit copula for modeling the dependence structure underlying two curve‐fitting parameters. The conditional probability density functions obtained from the Gaussian copula differ considerably from those obtained from the best‐fit copula. The probabilities of failure associated with the Gaussian copula are significantly smaller than the reference solutions, which are very unconservative for pile safety assessment. If the strong negative correlation between the two curve‐fitting parameters is ignored, the scatter in the measured load–displacement curves cannot be simulated properly, and the probabilities of failure will be highly overestimated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Suspended solid yield from forest harvesting on upland blanket peat     

Michael Rodgers  Mark O'Connor  Mark Robinson  Markus Muller  Russell Poole  Liwen Xiao 《水文研究》2011,25(2):207-216

Forest harvesting activities, if not carefully carried out, can disturb the forest soils and can cause significant suspended solid concentration increases in receiving water. This study examined how harvesting, following forestry guidelines, influenced suspended solid concentrations and loads in the receiving water of a blanket peat salmonid catchment. The study site comprised of two forest coupes of 34‐year‐old conifers drained by a first‐order stream. The upper coupe was not felled and acted as a baseline ‘control’ catchment; the downstream coupe was completely harvested in summer 2005 and served as the ‘experimental’ catchment. Good management practices such as the proper use of brash mats and harvesting only in dry weather were implemented to minimize soil surface disturbance and streambank erosion. Stream flow and suspended solid measurements at an upstream station (US) and a downstream station (DS) in the study stream commenced over a year before felling took place. The suspended solid concentrations, yields and release patterns at US and DS were compared before and after harvesting. These showed that post‐guideline harvesting of upland blanket peat forest did not significantly increase the suspended solid concentrations in the receiving water and the aquatic zone need not be adversely affected by soil releases from sites without a buffer strip. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献