库岸斜坡失稳及其涌浪灾害风险分析          下载免费PDF全文

罗冠枝  高文伟  王国卫  蒋明光  陈全明 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2020,31(1):8-17

库岸斜坡失稳及其引发涌浪问题是库岸斜坡灾害的重要研究部分,开展库岸斜坡失稳及其涌浪灾害风险分析研究对指导库岸斜坡防灾减灾具有重要意义。以湖南省麻阳县大水冲水库滑坡为例,探讨库岸斜坡失稳引发涌浪灾害的分析方法,采用Geostudio软件进行10年和50年一遇5日累积降雨的滑坡稳定性模拟分析,绘制滑坡影响范围内建筑物风险变化图和室内人员风险变化图。总结了在最危险工况下,大水冲水库滑坡总经济风险为249.3万元,室内人员的风险值达到27.8,并有产生翻坝的可能,但对沟口居民和水库坝体破坏的风险低。  相似文献   

刘家峡水库西南部水域表层沉积物重金属污染评价   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘翔  郭建明  樊海龙  张生银  张顺存  雷天柱  王建丰 《沉积与特提斯地质》2020,40(4):1-10

为了研究刘家峡水库西南部水域表层沉积物中重金属的污染状况,对采集的55个表层沉积物样品中的6种重金属元素Cr、Cd、Ni、Cu、Zn和Pb的含量进行测试,其平均含量分别为77.03μg/g、0.16μg/g、33.53μg/g、32.09μg/g、291.77μg/g、22.44μg/g。在研究表层沉积物重金属含量空间分布的基础上,运用单因子污染指数法、内梅罗综合污染指数法、地累积指数法、潜在生态风险指数法,综合判断水库的受污染程度并对其潜在生态风险进行评估。6种元素的地累积指数排序依次为：Zn > Cu > Cd > Ni > Pb > Cr;潜在生态风险系数排序依次为：Cd > Cu > Pb > Zn > Ni > Cr;各区域重金属污染程度或潜在生态风险水平依次为黄河主河道 > 大夏河河口 > 黄河横剖面。综合4种方法的评价结果,认为对刘家峡水库西南部表层沉积物重金属污染及潜在生态风险评价贡献率较高的重金属污染因子是Zn、Cu和Cd;综合相关性分析与主成分分析,认为研究区沉积物重金属污染主要来源于两个方面：（1） Zn、Cu主要来源于生活污染或工业污染;（2） Cd主要来源于工农业活动产生的污染。  相似文献   

Trends in aerosol optical properties over Eastern Europe based on MODIS-Aqua     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2020,11(6):2169-2181

This study provides characteristics of aerosol columnar properties, measured over ten countries in Eastern Europe from 2002 to 2019. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångström exponent (AE) were obtained with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 6.1 merged Dark Target and Deep Blue aerosol product. The product is validated using ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) situated at Minsk, Belsk, Moldova and Kyiv. The results showed that 76.15% of retrieved AOD data are within the expected error. It was established that 64.2% of AOD points are between 0 and 0.2 and 79.3% of all AE points are over 1. Mean AOD values in the region vary from 0.130 ​± ​0.04 (Moldova) to 0.193 ​± ​0.03 (Czech Republic) with mean value in the region 0.162 ​± ​0.05. Seasonal mean AOD (AE) values were at the maximum during the summer from 0.231 ​± ​0.05 (1.482 ​± ​0.09 in winter) to minimum 0.087 ​± ​0.04 during the winter (1.363 ​± ​0.17 in summer). Gradual AOD reduction is observed in all countries with annual trend from −0.0050 (Belarus) to −0.0029 (Russia). Finally, the relationship between AOD and AE was studied to classify various aerosol types and showed seasonal non-uniformity of their contribution depending on variation in sources. The entire region is under significant impact of various aerosol types, including clean continental (СС), mixed (MX) and anthropogenic/burning (AB) aerosols types that are at 59.77%, 24.72%, and 12.97% respectively. These results form an important basis for further regional studies of air quality and distribution of sources of pollution.  相似文献   

Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

Event-based classification for global study of river flood generating processes     

Lina Stein  Francesca Pianosi  Ross Woods 《水文研究》2020,34(7):1514-1529

Better understanding of which processes generate floods in a catchment can improve flood frequency analysis and potentially climate change impacts assessment. However, current flood classification methods are either not transferable across locations or do not provide event-based information. We therefore developed a location-independent, event-based flood classification methodology that is applicable in different climates and returns a classification of all flood events, including extreme ones. We use precipitation time series and very simply modelled soil moisture and snowmelt as inputs for a decision tree. A total of 113,635 events in 4155 catchments worldwide were classified into one of five hydro-climatological flood generating processes: short rain, long rain, excess rainfall, snowmelt and a combination of rain and snow. The new classification was tested for its robustness and evaluated with available information; these two tests are often lacking in current flood classification approaches. According to the evaluation, the classification is mostly successful and indicates excess rainfall as the most common dominant process. However, the dominant process is not very informative in most catchments, as there is a high at-site variability in flood generating processes. This is particularly relevant for the estimation of extreme floods which diverge from their usual flood generation pattern, especially in the United Kingdom, Northern France, Southeastern United States, and India.  相似文献   

Hazard Assessment of Co-seismic Landslides Based on Information Value Method: A Case in 2018 MW6.6 Hokkaido Earthquake, Japan     

WEN Boyu  XU Chong  HE Xiangli  MA Siyuan  SHAO Xiaoyi  LI Kai  ZHANG Zhongjian  LI Zhengfang 《中国地震研究》2020,34(1):64-80

An M_W6.6 earthquake occurred in eastern Hokkaido, Japan on September 6^th, 2018. Based on the pre-earthquake image from Google Earth and the post-earthquake image from high resolution (3 m) planet satellite, we manually interpret 9 293 coseismic landslides and select 7 influencing factors of seismic landslide, such as elevation, slope, slope direction, road distance, flow distance, peak ground acceleration (PGA) and lithology. Then, 9 293 landslide points are randomly divided into training samples and validation samples with a proportion of 7:3. In detail, the training sample has 6 505 landslide points and the validation sample has 2 788 landslide points. The hazard risk assessment of seismic landslide is conducted by using the information value method and the study area is further divided into five risk grades, including very low risk area, low risk area, moderate risk area high risk area and very high risk area. The results show that there are 7 576 landslides in high risk area and very high risk area, accounting for 81.52% of the total landslide number, and the landslide area is 22.93 km², accounting for 74.35% of the total area. The hazard zoning is in high accordance with the actual situation. The evaluation results are tested by using the curve of cumulative percentage of hazardous area and cumulative percentage of landslides number. The results show that the success rate of the information value method is 78.50% and the prediction rate is 78.43%. The evaluation results are satisfactory, indicating that the hazard risk assessment results based on information value method may provide scientific reference for landslide hazard risk assessment as well as the disaster prevention and mitigation in the study area.  相似文献   

贵州草海湿地不同水位梯度沉积物中汞、砷形态分布及风险评价     

汤向宸  林陶  夏品华  黄先飞  马莉  杨羽 《湖泊科学》2020,32(1):100-110

通过改进Tessier连续提取法对贵州草海黑颈鹤栖息地不同水位梯度下沉积物汞(Hg)、砷(As)形态及生态风险进行了研究.结果表明,草海湿地沉积物中Hg含量在0.45～1.51-mg/kg之间,超过国家土壤环境质量农用地土壤风险管控标准;形态组成上,残渣态汞(Res-Hg)有机结合态汞(Org-Hg)碳酸盐结合态(Car-Hg)铁锰氧化态(Fe-O-Hg)可交换态(Ex-Hg),不同水位梯度下含量和赋存形态在不同区域不一致.As含量在16.4～23.8-mg/kg之间,形态依次为残渣态砷(Res-As)有机结合态砷(Org-As)铁锰氧化态砷(Fe-O-As)碳酸盐结合态砷(Car-As)可交换态砷(Ex-As).-As含量与贵州省土壤背景值持平,随着水位梯度的抬升,其总量呈增加趋势,残渣态占比逐步增多,性质逐渐稳定.采用地积累指数(I_(geo))、潜在生态风险指数(E_r~i)、风险评价编码法(RAC)对Hg、As的危害程度进行分析表明,基于草海较高Hg环境背景值,Hg整体污染风险较高,As处于低水平的污染风险等级且对环境影响较小.该研究揭示了不同水位梯度下Hg、As总量及形态分布特征,对草海湿地水位抬升恢复湿地提供了参考.  相似文献   

云南边境生态环境数据组织管理研究     

李晋  齐清文  郭朝辉  姜莉莉  邹秀萍  刘美玲 《地球信息科学学报》2007,9(4):23-28,39

生态环境数据合理有效地组织与管理,对于开展区域生态环境研究意义重大。本文首先探讨了生态环境数据组织管理的基本流程。在此基础上,指出生态环境数据分类编码与元数据的规范化,以及生态环境模型的设计是实现生态环境数据组织管理的难点所在。随后,笔者以云南边境地带生态环境数据为例,提出了生态环境数据分类编码与元数据方案。并且在深入剖析生态环境数据特征的基础上,重点研究了生态环境数据的建模方案,提出了生态环境辅助数据模型(EcoADM)。最后,简要介绍了云南边境生态环境数据库管理原型系统的建设。  相似文献   

Riverine large wood and recreation safety: A framework to discretize and contextualize hazard     

Will Conley  Natalie Kramer 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):2201-2216

The importance of large wood (LW) to riverine functions is well established scientifically and increasingly recognized by river managers in many countries. However, public perceptions largely associate LW with elevated danger and/or need for intervention. Such perspectives are amplified amongst recreational river users (defined here as any individuals that recreate by floating on the water surface of a river) who interact more directly with rivers than the general public and commonly view wood in life-or-death terms. Given that human life occupies a highest-order charge for river managers, they are left in a difficult position when safety appears to conflict with environmental services. LW deficits are perpetuated partly because wood removal, often in the name of safety, is far easier than placing wood in rivers. Further, river restoration practitioners are frequently burdened with expectations and liability unparalleled in built environments. A fundamentally different mindset is necessary to achieve desired ecologic outcomes when working with rivers. Based on two decades of experience as boaters, LW practitioners, and emergency responders, we (1) discuss LW hazard and risk from recreational and management viewpoints, (2) discretize objective and measurable physical properties of LW hazards, and (3) propose a decision framework that implicitly addresses risk by considering LW hazards relative to river use and ambient hazards. The approach is structured to increase objectivity in LW hazard mitigation and diminish asymmetric biases that favor LW removal. Our intent is to build understanding and rational flexibility among risk-averse management, regulatory, and funding entities to facilitate implementation of scientific understanding without undue risk to river users. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于模糊理论的高铁连续梁桥地震风险评估          下载免费PDF全文

冯莉  樊燕燕  王力  李子奇 《地震工程学报》2020,42(3):639-645

以某高速铁路线上一座连续梁桥为例,运用模糊综合评判法,结合基于位移的支座损伤分析和截面曲率的桥墩损伤分析,以全概率理论地震损失模型为基础,提出了基于模糊理论的桥梁系统地震经济风险评估方法。结果表明:综合考虑桥梁系统的模糊地震经济风险分析方法能更全面地计算出连续梁桥在地震作用下的经济损失,仅以桥墩构件代表全桥所得地震经济损失误差较大。基于模糊理论的年预期损失风险框架方法通过结构抗震性能的概率特征可对高速铁路连续梁桥的地震直接经济风险进行全面评估,为该类桥梁的抗震设计、维修加固和灾后重建等方案做出合理评价。  相似文献