Simulating the interactions between the water and the socio-economic system in a stressed endorheic basin     

Sajad Enteshari  Hamid R. Safavi 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(13):2159-2174

ABSTRACT

The endorheic basin of Zayandehrud in Iran suffers from environmental problems, social tensions, and economic instability. Lack of understanding how the water system and the socio-economic system interact may explain these challenges. A system dynamics model, being a holistic simulation tool, was developed for the Zayandehrud basin and used to evaluate several policy scenarios. The indices of employment, gross regional product, the volume of groundwater and surface water stored, flow into the basin’s end lake, and the water flow in the river were used to evaluate the scenarios. The findings demonstrate that focusing on supply-based activities or water demand management cannot solely improve the condition of the Zayandehrud basin. It is required to reconsider the development policies of the region in a broader context. Reducing the irrigated area by 15% and developing new industries up to a certain limit may make the combined water and socio-economic system sustainable.  相似文献   

地球动力学与盆地层序及油气系统分析   总被引：12，自引：7，他引：5  

刘和甫  李小军  刘立群 《现代地质》2003,17(1):80-86

油气盆地、沉积层序与油气系统的研究属于不同层次的油气资源评价的基础研究。各类原型盆地的形成与地球动力学环境有关,并可简化为裂谷盆地、前陆盆地、走滑盆地和克拉通盆地等。沉积层序驱动机制由地球动力学的不同环境所决定,沉积层序可分类为裂谷盆地层序、前陆盆地层序和走滑盆地层序。油气系统在不同地球动力学环境下形成裂谷油气系统、台地油气系统和造山油气系统。中国许多大型盆地属于大型叠合盆地,并构成复合油气系统。  相似文献   

Estimating rupture scenario likelihood based on dynamic rupture simulations: the example of the segmented Middle Durance fault, southeastern France   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hideo Aochi  Marc Cushing  Oona Scotti  Catherine Berge-Thierry 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,165(2):436-446

The Middle Durance fault system, southeastern France, is a slow active fault that produced moderate-size historical seismic events and shows evidence of at least one   M _w ≳ 6.5  event in the last 29 000 yr. Based on dynamic rupture simulation, we propose earthquake scenarios that are constrained by knowledge of both the tectonic stress field and of the 3-D geometry of the Durance fault system. We simulate dynamic rupture interaction among several fault segmentations of different strikes, dips and rakes, using a 3-D boundary integral equation method. 50 combinations of reasonable stress field orientations, stress field amplitudes and hypocentre locations are tested. The probability of different rupture evolutions is then computed. Each segment ruptures mainly as a single event (44 per cent of the 50 simulations test in this paper). However, the probability that an event triggers simultaneously along three segments is high (26 per cent), leading to a potential rupture length of 45 km. Finally, 2 per cent of the simulations occur along four adjacent segments, producing the greatest total rupture length of 55 km. The simulation results show that the southernmost segment is most easily ruptured (40 per cent), because of its favourable orientation with respect to the tectonic stress and of its favourable location for interaction with the other segments. South-bound unilateral propagation is slightly preferable (41 per cent), compared to north-bound unilateral and bilateral propagation modes. Although, these rupture scenarios cannot be directly translated into probabilities of occurrence, they do provide a better insight as to which rupture scenarios are more likely, an important element to better estimate near-field strong ground motion and seismic hazard.  相似文献   

Macroseismic and mechanical models for the vulnerability and damage assessment of current buildings   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

Sergio Lagomarsino  Sonia Giovinazzi 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2006,4(4):415-443

The European Commission funded the RISK-UE project in 1999 with the aim of providing an advanced approach to earthquake risk scenarios for European towns and regions. In the framework of Risk-UE project, two methods were proposed, originally derived and calibrated by the authors, for the vulnerability assessment of current buildings and for the evaluation of earthquake risk scenarios: a macroseismic model, to be used with macroseismic intensity hazard maps, and a mechanical based model, to be applied when the hazard is provided in terms of peak ground accelerations and spectral values. The vulnerability of the buildings is defined by vulnerability curves, within the macroseismic method, and in terms of capacity curves, within the mechanical method. In this paper, the development of both vulnerability and capacity curves is presented with reference to an assumed typological classification system; moreover, their cross-validation is presented. The parameters of the two methods and the steps for their operative implementation are provided in the paper.  相似文献   

京珠高速公路粤境北段路堑高边坡失稳防治研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴玉刚  秦小林 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2003,14(1):55-59

京珠高速公路粤境北段地形条件十分复杂，被世界银行专家称为“中国最具挑战性的公路项目”。文章介绍了针对此项目开展的路堑高边坡失稳防治研究情况，着重介绍了该项研究的技术路线，以及为预防路堑高边坡失稳开展的系列研究。即：①路堑高边坡工程地质条件；②按常规所做原设计的堑坡稳定性；③路堑高边坡设计方案；④路堑高边坡施工工艺；⑤动态监测；⑥动态设计。研究与设计施工密切配合，及时将研究成果应用到工程实践中，取得很好的效果。  相似文献   

Dynamics of a complex mass movement triggered by heavy rainfall: a case study from NW Turkey   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Faruk Ocakoglu  Candan Gokceoglu  Murat Ercanoglu 《Geomorphology》2002,42(3-4)

Following a period of heavy precipitation, a large and complex mass movement, namely the Dagkoy landslide, occurred in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey on May 21, 1998. This paper describes the conditioning factors of the landslide and interprets the mass transport processes in terms of a movement scenario. Geology, geomorphology and vegetation cover were considered as the conditioning factors of the failure. Observations showed that the gently sloping (about 10°) area is mostly covered by dense forest trees at the crown where the motion initiated. Significant intersection of the collapsed slope with dip of the local marls seems to have contributed to the formation and geometry of the landslide. The distance from the crown down to the toe of the landslide measured more than 600 m, with about 0.6 km³ total earth material displaced. The landslide has both a block sliding characteristics in the upper portions and a debris flow/soil flow component around the margins of the sliding blocks in the middle parts and at the toe. The proposed scenario for the landslide reveals that the movement was initiated near crown as a result of the excess water content in the marls at the end of 3 days of heavy rainfall. The early perturbations (transverse cracks, ridges, etc.) lasted for 6–7 h, after which the central part of the zone started to move as a soil flow in which very large intact blocks were transported. Even though the movement was very rapid (1.2 m/min), there was no loss of life. However, the movement destroyed 38 houses, one mosque and a considerable amount of farmland.  相似文献   

Prediction of near-field strong ground motions for scenario earthquakes on active fault     

王海云  谢礼立  陶夏新  李捷 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2006,5(1):11-17

1 Introduction Earthquake disaster investigations show that numerous strong earthquakes were caused by remobilization of active faults. Major casualties and severe damage to buildings as well as signi?cant economic losses resulted from the ground motions of strongearthquakescausedbyactivefaultslocatedbeneath urban areas. Recently, the potential hazard prediction of and its mitigation against active faults located beneath urban areas have become an important research topic for seismologists and…  相似文献   

用随机模拟方法研究设定地震的地面运动参数   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

姜慧  胡聿贤  赵凤新  俞言祥  唐丽华 《地震工程与工程振动》2006,26(3):44-46

本文从强地面运动随机模拟方法应用出发,提出了一种用中小地震的数字观测资料确定研究区路径、场地参数的方法。采用该方法,分离软基岩场地联合效应和非弹性衰减的影响,并把二者分别确定出来。这些参数可以直接用于研究区软基岩场地的地面运动随机模拟。  相似文献   

邢台地区设定地震事件烈度影响   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

吕国军  张合  李皓  孙丽娜 《地震地磁观测与研究》2017,38(4):37-44

通过邢台地区历史地震烈度资料分析,得到该地区烈度—频率灾害曲线及地震风险。以地震地质资料理论为基础,结合河北省城市活断层探测成果、地壳结构等资料,确定2个设定地震事件。采用复合震源模型,模拟合成强地面运动,并基于强地面运动模拟结果,分析邢台地区地震影响烈度,为今后该地区建筑物抗震设防、避难场所选址、震后救援以及地震保险风险评估提供参考依据。  相似文献   

基于CA-Markov模型的长吉示范区土地利用格局多情景预测研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李慧颖  李晓燕  贾明明  于皓  王宗明 《地理信息世界》2019,26(3):18-24

吉林省长吉产业创新发展示范区位于我国东北地区的地理中心,是实施新一轮东北振兴和吉林省融入国家“一带一路”倡议的重要地区,该区土地利用变化对于生态环境变化及区域经济、社会发展有重要影响。本研究以Landsat TM/OLI和ZY-3遥感影像为数据源,获取长吉示范区1990年、2000年、2010年和2015年土地利用数据,分析示范区土地利用动态趋势,并利用CA-Markov模型预测了自然发展和生态规划两种情景下的2040年土地利用格局。结果表明,1990~2015年期间,约有288.14km^2的林地转化为耕地,同时有200.29km^2的耕地转化为建设用地。自然发展型情景预测结果显示,到2040年,长吉示范区森林面积将继续萎缩,湿地、耕地损失严重,建设用地显著扩张。生态规划型情景预测结果表明,如采取积极的生态保护和恢复措施,到2040年,示范区森林面积将恢复至910.17km^2,湿地将得到有效恢复,优质农耕区得到保护,同时保证了区域城镇化的发展。通过本研究中不同土地利用发展情境的模拟,可为示范区土地规划、生态保护和区域可持续发展提供决策依据。  相似文献