Seismic Hazard Analysis — Quo vadis?     

Jens-Uwe Klügel   《Earth》2008,88(1-2):1-32

The paper is dedicated to the review of methods of seismic hazard analysis currently in use, analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches. The review is performed from the perspective of a user of the results of seismic hazard analysis for different applications such as the design of critical and general (non-critical) civil infrastructures, technical and financial risk analysis. A set of criteria is developed for and applied to an objective assessment of the capabilities of different analysis methods. It is demonstrated that traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods have significant deficiencies, thus limiting their practical applications. These deficiencies have their roots in the use of inadequate probabilistic models and insufficient understanding of modern concepts of risk analysis, as have been revealed in some recent large scale studies. These deficiencies result in the lack of ability of a correct treatment of dependencies between physical parameters and finally, in an incorrect treatment of uncertainties. As a consequence, results of PSHA studies have been found to be unrealistic in comparison with empirical information from the real world. The attempt to compensate these problems by a systematic use of expert elicitation has, so far, not resulted in any improvement of the situation. It is also shown that scenario-earthquakes developed by disaggregation from the results of a traditional PSHA may not be conservative with respect to energy conservation and should not be used for the design of critical infrastructures without validation. Because the assessment of technical as well as of financial risks associated with potential damages of earthquakes need a risk analysis, current method is based on a probabilistic approach with its unsolved deficiencies.

Traditional deterministic or scenario-based seismic hazard analysis methods provide a reliable and in general robust design basis for applications such as the design of critical infrastructures, especially with systematic sensitivity analyses based on validated phenomenological models. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis incorporates uncertainties in the safety factors. These factors are derived from experience as well as from expert judgment. Deterministic methods associated with high safety factors may lead to too conservative results, especially if applied for generally short-lived civil structures. Scenarios used in deterministic seismic hazard analysis have a clear physical basis. They are related to seismic sources discovered by geological, geomorphologic, geodetic and seismological investigations or derived from historical references. Scenario-based methods can be expanded for risk analysis applications with an extended data analysis providing the frequency of seismic events. Such an extension provides a better informed risk model that is suitable for risk-informed decision making.  相似文献   

Crystal-Melt Separation and the Development of Isotopic Heterogeneities in Hybrid Magmas     

Beard  James S. 《Journal of Petrology》2008,49(5):1027-1041

If a magma is a hybrid of two (or more) isotopically distinctend-members, at least one of which is partially crystalline,separation of melt and crystals after hybridization will leadto the development of isotopic heterogeneities in the magmaas long as some of the pre-existing crystalline material (antecrysts)retains any of its original isotopic composition. This holdstrue whether the hybridization event is magma mixing as traditionallyconstrued, bulk assimilation, or melt assimilation. Once a magma-scaleisotopic heterogeneity is formed by crystal–melt separation,it is essentially permanent, persisting regardless of subsequentcrystallization, mixing, or equilibration events. The magnitudeof the isotopic variability resulting from crystal–meltseparation can be as large as that resulting from differentialcontamination, multiple isotopically distinct sources, or insitu isotopic evolution. In one model, a redistribution of one-thirdof the antecryst cargo yielded a crystal-enriched sample with⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0·7058, whereas the complementary crystal-poorsample has ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0·7068. In other models, crystal-richsamples are enriched in radiogenic Sr. Isotopic heterogeneitiescan be either continuous (controlled by the modal distributionof crystals and melt) or discontinuous (when there is completeseparation of crystals and liquid). The first case may be exemplifiedby some isotopically zoned large-volume rhyolites, formed bythe eruptive inversion of a modally zoned magma chamber. Inthe latter case, the isotopic composition of any (for example)interstitial liquid will be distinct from the isotopic compositionof the bulk crystal fraction. The separation of such an interstitialliquid may explain the presence of isotopically distinct late-stageaplites in plutons. Crystal–melt separation provides anadditional option for the interpretation of isotopically zonedor heterogeneous magmas. This option is particularly attractivefor systems whose chemical variation is otherwise explicableby fractionation-dominated processes. Non-isotopic chemicalheterogeneities can also develop in this fashion. KEY WORDS: isotopic heterogeneity; zoning; hybrid magma; crystal separation; Sr isotopes; aplite; rhyolite  相似文献   

Crystal chemical significance of chemical zoning in dissakisite-(Ce)     

Mihoko Hoshino  Mitsuyoshi Kimata  Norimasa Nishida  Masahiro Shimizu 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2008,35(2):59-70

Dissakisites from Trimouns dolomite mine, France, have two kinds of single crystals: chemical-zoned and homogeneous types. Back-scattered electron microprobe (BSE) images of these dissakisites reveal both Ca–Al rich dark zones and Fe-ΣREE rich bright zones. Crystal structures of three dark and two bright zones in a chemical-zoned dissakisite and of a homogeneous zone in unzoned dissakisite were refined to individual R indices (about 3.0–5.0%) based on 1,400 observed [|F ₀| > 4σF ₀] reflections measured with MoKα X-radiation using the single crystal diffractometer. The differences in brightness between their BSE images arise from those in coupled substitutions of the elements occupying A2 and M3 sites. The main reason for these differences is that ten-coordinated A2 polyhedra and M3 octahedra are directly linked through their shared edge, which creates a great potential for making this coupled substitution. This zoning indicates that formation of the whole zoned crystal, where each zone could be grown steadily with its crystallographic axes mutually parallel to each other, may be identified as autoepitaxy.  相似文献   

新疆可可托海—四川简阳地学断面岩石圈与软流圈结构   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

蔡学林曹家敏  朱介寿 《中国地质》2008,35(3):375-391

运用现代构造解析理论和方法,对新疆可可托海—四川简阳人工地震测深剖面与天然地震面波层析成像进行构造解析基础上,综合地质学、深源岩石包体构造岩石学和地球化学以及其他地球物理学标志等多学科综合研究显示,高速块体或幔块构造的几何结构型式是控制该区岩石圈构造格局和岩石圈表层构造变形基本条件之一。本文建立起该地学断面地壳及岩石圈与软流圈速度结构模型和物质组成结构模型,划分出岩石圈3种几何结构模式:克拉通陆根状结构、造山带楔状结构和高原陆根状结构,以及岩石圈二类构造演化类型:克拉通型岩石圈和增厚型岩石圈。在系统论述断面地壳及岩石圈结构构造类型特征基础上,探讨了该断面软流圈结构特征,岩石圈与软流圈相互作用及其地幔动力学模式。  相似文献   

地震折射波的虚拟射线理论及其应用     

焦湘恒  王修田 《中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版)》1987,(2)

本文提出了一种地震折射液的虚拟射线理论,根据该理论,只要已知地表层的速度,即可直接由折射波信息提取地震参数,从而可实现折射界面的反演。 文中通过实际介质模型的计算机实验结果,验证了该理论的正确性。  相似文献   

Deformation Patterns of an Accretionary Wedge in the Transition Zone from Subduction to Collision Offshore Southwestern Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Char-Shine Liu  Benoit Deffontaines  Chia-Yu Lu  Serge Lallemand 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2004,25(1-2):123-137

Swath bathymetry data and seismic reflection profiles have been used to investigate details of the deformation pattern in the area offshore southwestern Taiwan where the Luzon subduction complex encroaches on the passive Chinese continental margin. Distinctive fold-and-thrust structures of the convergent zone and horst-and-graben structures of the passive margin are separated by a deformation front that extends NNW-ward from the eastern edge of the Manila Trench to the foot of the continental slope. This deformation front gradually turns into a NNE–SSW trending direction across the continental slope and the Kaoping Shelf, and connects to the frontal thrusts of the mountain belt on land Taiwan. However, the complex Penghu submarine canyon system blurs the exact location of the deformation front and nature of many morphotectonic features offshore SW Taiwan. We suggest that the deformation front offshore SW Taiwan does not appear as a simple structural line, but is characterized by a series of N–S trending folds and thrusts that terminate sequentially in an en-echelon pattern across the passive Chinese continental slope. A number of NE–SW trending lineaments cut across the fold-and-thrust structures of the frontal accretionary wedge and exhibit prominent dextral displacement indicative of the lateral expulsion of SW Taiwan. One of the prominent lineaments, named the Yung-An lineament, forms the southeastern boundary of the upper part of the Penghu submarine canyon, and has conspicuous influence over the drainage pattern of the canyon  相似文献   

The Agulhas Ridge, South Atlantic: The Peculiar Structure of a Fracture Zone     

Gabriele Uenzelmann-Neben  Karsten Gohl 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2004,25(3-4):305-319

The Agulhas Ridge is a prominent topographic feature that parallels the Agulhas-Falkland Fracture Zone (AFFZ). Seismic reflection and wide angle/refraction data have led to the classification of this feature as a transverse ridge. Changes in spreading rate and direction associated with ridge jumps, combined with asymmetric spreading within the Agulhas Basin, modified the stress field across the fracture zone. Moreover, passing the Agulhas Ridge’s location between 80 and 69 Ma, the Bouvet and Shona Hotspots may have supplied excess material to this part of the AFFZ thus altering the ridge’s structure. The low crustal velocities and overthickened crust of the northern Agulhas Ridge segment indicate a possible continental affinity that suggests it may be formed by a small continental sliver, which was severed off the Maurice Ewing Bank during the opening of the South Atlantic. In early Oligocene times the Agulhas Ridge was tectono-magmatically reactivated, as documented by the presence of basement highs disturbing and disrupting the sedimentary column in the Cape Basin. We consider the Discovery Hotspot, which distributes plume material southwards across the AAFZ, as a source for the magmatic material.  相似文献   

Seismic Response Control of Offshore Platform Structures with Shape Memory Alloy Dampers     

李宏男何晓宇  霍林生 《中国海洋工程》2005,19(2):185-194

In this study, the seismic response control of offshore platform structures with Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) dampers is investigated. A new SMA damper and its restoring force medel are introduced for the calculation of seismic response reduction. Based on an actual platform structure and its mechanical medel, the parameters which may affect the rate of shock absorption are analyzed, such as the number, position and characteristics of the SMA dampers and the condition of the site where the platform is located. The results show that the SMA damper is an effective control device for offshore platforms and satisfactory control can be achieved by proper selection of the parameters.  相似文献   

Geophysical Evidence of a Relict Oceanic Crust in the Southwestern Scotia Sea     

Lodolo  Emanuele  Coren  Franco  Schreider  Anatoly A.  Ceccone  Giulio 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1997,19(5):439-450

The southwestern part of the Scotia Sea, at the corner of the Shackleton Fracture Zone with the South Scotia Ridge has been investigated, combining marine magnetic profiles, multichannel seismic reflection data, and satellite-derived gravity anomaly data. From the integrated analysis of data, we identified the presence of the oldest part of the crust in this sector, which tentative age is older than anomaly C10 (28.7 Ma). The area is surrounded by structural features clearly imaged by seismic data, which correspond to gravity lows in the satellite-derived map, and presents a rhomboid-shaped geometry. Along its southern boundary, structural features related to convergence and possible incipient subduction beneath the continental South Scotia Ridge have been evidenced from the seismic profile. We interpret this area, now located at the edge of the south-western Scotia Sea, as a relict of ocean-like crust formed during an earlier, possibly diffuse and disorganized episode of spreading at the first onset of the Drake Passage opening. The successive episode of organized seafloor spreading responsible for the opening of the Drake Passage that definitively separated southern South America from the Antarctic Peninsula, instigated ridge-push forces that can account for the subduction-related structures found along the western part of the South Scotia Ridge. This seafloor accretion phase occurred from 27 to about 10 Ma, when spreading stopped in the western Scotia Sea Ridge, as resulted from the identification of the marine magnetic anomalies.  相似文献   

A seismic refraction study of cretaceous oceanic lithosphere in the Northwest Pacific Basin     

Michel Bée  L. Dale Bibee 《Marine Geophysical Researches》1989,11(4):239-261

A seismic refraction study on old (110 Myr) lithosphere in the northwest Pacific Basin has placed constraints on crustal and uppermantle seismic structure of old oceanic lithosphere, and lithospheric aging processes. No significant lateral variation in structure other than azimuthally anisotropic mantle velocities was found, allowing the application of powerful amplitude modeling techniques. The anisotropy observed is in an opposite sense to that expected, suggesting the tectonic setting of the area may be more complex than originally thought. Upper crustal velocities are generally larger than for younger crust, supporting current theories of decreased porosity with crustal aging. However, there is no evidence for significant thickening of the oceanic crust with age, nor is there any evidence of a lower crustal layer of high or low velocity relative to the velocity of the rest of Layer 3. The compressional and shear wave velocities rule out a large component of serpentinization of mantle materials. The only evidence for a basal crustal layer of olivine gabbro cumulates is a 1.5 km thick Moho transition zone. In the slow direction of anisotropy, upper mantle velocities increase from 8.0 km s^-1 to 8.35 km s^-1 in the upper 15 km below the Moho. This increase is inconsistent with an homogeneous upper mantle and suggests that compositinal or phase changes occur near the Moho.  相似文献