Uncertainty in predictions of oil spill trajectories in open sea     

P. Sebastio  C. Guedes Soares 《Ocean Engineering》2007,34(3-4):576-584

A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters.  相似文献   

Impact of urban stormwater runoff on estuarine environmental quality     

Hueiwang Anna C. Jeng  Andrew J. Englande  Reda M. Bakeer  Henry B. Bradford 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2005,63(4):513-526

Urban stormwater runoff could contribute to the deterioration of water quality of a receiving water body. In this research, field studies and laboratory experiments were conducted to assess the microbial contamination resulting from urban stormwater runoff into the Lake Pontchartrain estuary. Fecal coliform, Escherichia coli and enterococci were used as indicator organisms. The specific objectives of the research were to examine the distribution of the indicator organisms in different environmental elements (water column, suspended particles and sediment) and to further investigate the mechanisms related to their fate. Results of the research indicated satisfactory water quality at the study sites during dry weather periods. However, a significant increase was observed in the concentrations of the indicator organisms in the water columns and sediment at specific study sites following a given stormwater event. Three to seven days were needed for the elevated indicator organisms to return back to their background levels in the water column and sediment, respectively. The mechanism of sedimentation contributed to a reduction in the microbial concentration in the water column, as the indicator organisms were found to attach to the suspended particles in the stormwater. The percentage of fecal coliform, E. coli and enterococci attached to the suspended particles was found to be within the range of 9.8–27.5%, 21.8–30.4%, and 8.4–11.5% of the total indicator organisms in the stormwater loaded into the estuary, respectively. About 75–80% of the total indicator organisms remained free-floating for some distance in the water column before dying off.  相似文献   

海坛海峡二维潮流场数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

汤军健  温生辉  陈楚汉 《台湾海峡》2006,25(4):533-540

海坛海峡为南北狭长型海峡，海峡内潮波属于前进波．本文建立了平面二维浅水波数学方程，利用欧拉-拉格朗日差分方法得到数值解，模型采用随时间变化的动边界技术，成功地模拟了海坛海峡的前进波特征，并根据实测数据进行了验证．同时计算了同潮时线和等振幅线，不同时刻的潮流场和潮流平均流速分布．计算结果表明，北部湾口M2分潮高潮时间比南部湾口早约5～6min，等振幅线范围约为2．12～2．15m．海峡内流速分布呈南北强、中间弱的特点，最大流速1m／s左右．  相似文献   

Numerical study of the meridional overturning circulation with “mixing hotspots” in the Pacific Ocean     

Takahiro Endoh  Toshiyuki Hibiya 《Journal of Oceanography》2006,62(3):259-266

Using an idealized ocean general circulation model, we examine the effect of “mixing hotspots” (localized regions of intense diapycnal mixing) predicted based on internal wave-wave interaction theory (Hibiya et al., 2006) on the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean. Although the assumed diapycnal diffusivity in the mixing hotspots is a little larger than the predicted value, the upwelling in the mixing hotspots is not sufficient to balance the deep-water production; out of 17 Sv of the downwelled water along the southern boundary, only 9.2 Sv is found to upwell in the mixing hotspots. The imbalance as much as 7.8 Sv is compensated by entrainment into the surface mixed layer in the vicinity of the downwelling region. As a result, the northward transport of the deep water crossing the equator is limited to 5.5 Sv, much less than estimated from previous current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys. One plausible explanation for this is that the magnitude of the meridional overturning circulation of the Pacific Ocean has been overestimated by these observations. We raise doubts about the validity of the previous ocean general circulation models where diapycnal diffusivity is assigned ad hoc to attain the current magnitude suggested from current meter moorings and hydrographic surveys.  相似文献   

The Structure of A Turbulent Jet in A Crossflow-Effect of Jet-Crossflow Velocity     

李行伟  匡翠萍  陈国谦 《中国海洋工程》2002,(1)

A comprehensive numerical study on the three-dimensional structure of a turbulent jet in crossflow is performed. The jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio (R) varies in the range of 2 - 16; both vertical jets and inclined jets without excess streamwise momentum are considered. The numerical results of the Standard two-equation k-ε model show that the turbulent structure can be broadly categorised according to the jet-to-crossflow velocity ratio. For strong to moderate jet discharges, i.e. R> 4, the jet is characterized by a longitudinal transition through a bent-over phase during which the jet becomes almost parallel with the main freestream, to a sectional vortex-pair flow with double concentration maxima; the computed flow details and scalar mixing characteristics can be described by self-similar relations beyond a dimensionless distance of around 20-60. The similarity coefficients are only weakly dependent on R. The cross-section scalar field is kidney-shaped and bifurcated, vvith distinct double concentr  相似文献   

Hydrodynamic modeling of flushing time in a small estuary of North Bay, Florida, USA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wenrui Huang   《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2007,74(4):722

Freshwater fraction method is popular for cost-effective estimations of estuarine flushing time in response to freshwater inputs. However, due to the spatial variations of salinity, it is usually expensive to directly estimate the long-term freshwater fraction in the estuary from field observations. This paper presents the application of the 3D hydrodynamic model to estimate the distributions of salinity and thus the freshwater fractions for flushing time estimation. For a case study in a small estuary of the North Bay in Florida, USA, the hydrodynamic model was calibrated and verified using available field observations. Freshwater fractions in the estuary were determined by integrating freshwater fractions in model grids for the calculation of flushing time. The flushing time in the North Bay is calculated by the volume of freshwater fraction divided by the freshwater inflow, which is about 2.2 days under averaged flow conditions. Based on model simulations for a time series of freshwater inputs over a 2-year period, a power regression equation has been derived from model simulations to correlate estuarine flushing time to freshwater inputs. For freshwater input varying from 12 m³/s to 50 m³/s, flushing time in this small estuary of North Bay changes from 3.7 days to 1.8 days. In supporting estuarine management, the model can be used to examine the effects of upstream freshwater withdraw on estuarine salinity and flushing time.  相似文献   

海南东寨港红树林港湾潮汐动力研究     

倪海祥  张乔民  赵焕庭 《热带海洋学报》1996,(4)

在海南东寨港林市村附近红树林港湾潮汐动力测量的基础上，建立二维可移动边界有限元数值模型，研究红树林港湾浅水湖滩潮流场特征。实测与计算结果表明，潮沟区流速最大，具驻波特征，呈明显时间－速度不对称，东潮沟涨潮优势，百潮沟落潮优势，整个港湾水体呈顺时针循环。白滩与林地周期性淹没，白滩流速较湖沟略小。林地曼宁系数为白滩的１０倍，流速小于１０ｃｍ·ｓ（－１），约为相应潮沟流速的１／１０。林地如去掉林木，流速可增加３倍以上，流向也有变化。  相似文献   

基于ArcEngine的虚拟校园信息管理系统的设计与实现     

王志恒  杨国东  吴琼  于小平  洪德发 《测绘软科学研究》2008,(3)

阐述基于组件式GIS的开发方式,结合3维建模技术、数据库技术开发虚拟校园信息管理系统的基本思路,重点研究了3维模型的入库方法,以及基于GeoDatabase的数据库设计。以VirtualCampus系统开发为例,介绍了利用Visual C++与ArcEngine开发虚拟校园信息管理系统的方法。  相似文献   

空间尺度转换与跨尺度信息链接:区域生态水文模拟研究空间尺度转换方法综述     

吴江华  赵鹏祥  Nigel Roulet  PENG Changhui 《地球科学进展》2008,23(2):129-141

空间尺度转换是近年来区域生态水文研究领域的一个基本研究问题。其需要主要是源于模型的输入数据与所能提供的数据空间尺度不一致以及模型所代表的地表过程空间尺度与所观测的地表过程空间尺度不吻合。综述了目前区域生态水文模拟研究中常用的空间尺度转换研究方法,包括向上尺度转换和向下尺度转换。详细论述了2种向下尺度转换方法: 统计学经验模型和动态模型。前者是通过将GCM大尺度数据与长期的历史观测数据比较从而建立统计学相关模型, 然后利用这个统计学经验模型进行向下的空间尺度转换. 然而动态模型并不直接对GCM数据进行向下尺度的转换,而是对与GCM进行动态耦合的区域气候模型(RCM) 的输出数据进行空间尺度转换. 通常后者所获得的数据精度要比前者高,但是一个主要缺点就是并不是全球所有的研究区域都有对应的RCM。还详细论述了2种向上尺度转换方法: 统计学经验模型和斑块模型。前者是建立一个能代表小尺度信息在大尺度上分布的密度分布概率函数, 然后利用这个函数在所需的大尺度上进行积分而求得大尺度所需的信息。而后者是根据相似性最大化原则将大尺度划分为若干个可操作的小尺度斑块,然后将计算的每个小尺度斑块的信息平均化得到大尺度所需的信息。通常在计算这种斑块化的小尺度信息的时候,对每个小尺度也会采用统计学经验模型来计算代表整个斑块小尺度的信息。建议用斑块模型与统计学经验模型相集合的方法来实现向上的空间尺度转换  相似文献   

末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因检测   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

姜大膀  梁潇云 《第四纪研究》2008,28(3):491-501

在国际古气候模拟比较计划设置的标准试验方案下,首先利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的全球大气环流模式（IAP-AGCM）模拟了末次盛冰期东亚气候状况,然后通过4组数值敏感性试验逐一模拟了大气CO₂浓度、海洋表面温度（SST）和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被变化4项强迫因子的单独气候效应,进而对末次盛冰期东亚气候的成因进行了检测。结果表明,末次盛冰期除华南局部略有升温外,中国年均地表气温显著降低,降温幅度总体上向北增大,青藏高原处存在一个降温中心。其中,SST和海冰变化是华南局部略偏暖的主因,它同时导致了东亚其他区域地表气温的显著降低,特别是在东北亚地区;陆地冰盖和地形变化对于东亚地表气温的显著冷却作用主要体现在东亚的西北部;大气CO₂浓度降低会引起东亚地区0.2～0.9℃的普遍降温;相对而言,东亚植被的降温作用（0.5～1.0℃）主要显现在中国40°N以南的区域。与此同时,SST和海冰变化能引起中国东部年均降水一定程度的减少,而大气CO₂浓度、陆地冰盖和地形、东亚植被单独变化均不会显著影响东亚年均降水的分布状况,然而,上述四项因子的共同变化会通过协同作用引起中国东部年均降水的显著减少,西部地区降水则与现在差别不大。此外,末次盛冰期东亚夏季风的显著减弱源于SST和海冰变化,冬季风变化则可归因于SST和海冰、陆地冰盖和地形的变化。  相似文献