全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

殷跃平  张颖  康宏达  费宇明 《第四纪研究》1996,16(2):123-130

区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为２７００个单元，对地质灾害进行现状评价，并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加，编制了全国地质现状等值线图，在现状评价基础上，对地质灾害进行趋势预测，将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素，运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判，编制了１：６００万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。  相似文献   

刃具斜切入破岩的试验与研究          下载免费PDF全文

石永泉 《探矿工程》1996,(2):33-35,42

介绍了刃具斜切入破岩的试验装置及试验结果，推导出了跃进载荷的计算公式，并对试验结果进行了理论分析，探讨了影响刃具侵入岩石难易的因素和影响破岩比功大小的因素。  相似文献   

Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology     

H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331

 The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited. Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios. Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996  相似文献   

甘肃省东南部未来地震危险区的模式识别   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

蔡红卫 《地震工程学报》1997,19(2):57-61

在综合分析甘肃省东南部地震地质特征的基础上，利用模式识别方法判定未来地震危险区的可能位置．结果表明，本区易发生地震的地点与全新世断裂强烈活动段相吻合，从而提高了对未来地震危险区判定的可信度  相似文献   

对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估     

陈学忠  陈佩燕  王林瑛 《国际地震动态》2004,(12):8-15

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。  相似文献   

利用高分辨率卫星影像进行地震损失评价所需的城市特征识别   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

袁中夏  王兰民 《世界地震工程》2004,20(3):135-140

高分辨率卫星影像已经在一些国家的民用领域得到应用。利用高分辨率卫星影像来收集地震损失评价所需要的各类城市信息不仅高效和有较好的时间分辨率，而且它可以减少以往所必需的大量的代价高昂且费力的城市调查。基于在印度城市台拉登所做的研究，讨论了如何利用高分辨率卫星影像进行城市特征识别的一些问题，同时也简单论述了利用GIS／RS软件综合所得的数据以便用于地震损失评价的方法。  相似文献   

Earthquake Disaster Management and Insurance     

TANG Ai-ping~  WEN Ai-hua~ 《地球科学进展》2004,(Z1)

As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been done for many years, include these contents: insurance model, financing. This paper presents the development of china in EDM and EI. The main contents include: (1) the statue and trend of earthquake disaster management and insurance in china; (2) the progresses and new methods about the seismic risk zonation and vulnerability analysis, and the future developing trend, the application of GIS in earthquake disaster assessment is introduced; (3) the way and illustration in building the earthquake disaster e  相似文献   

21世纪中国地质灾害防治形势与减灾战略思考   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

张樑 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(2):16-21

文章论述了21世纪中国地质灾害减灾面临的形势是既存在许多有利条件又存在多方面困难而面临严重挑战。提出21世纪地质灾害减灾战略：1．建立地质灾害防治安全维护体系；2．优先安排西部地区地质灾害防治工程，实施地质灾害风险管理；3．建立矿山地质灾害防治监督管理体系；4．城市地质灾害防治与土地利用相结合；5．加强我国地质环境监测与网站建设；6．针对地质灾害区域分布规律，采取分区减灾对策；7．加大地质灾害防治投入力度。  相似文献   

建设用地地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的思考   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7  

金德山 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):101-103

结合工作实践，就建设用地地质灾害危险性评估及其成果审查工作中经常遇到的5个问题——评估灾害类型的确定原则，评估区环境条件分析深度的把握，现状、预测及综合地质灾害危险性评估内容的侧重点，土地适宜性评价的依据以及优秀评估成果的判定标准，提出了个人的理解和认识。供从事类似工作的同志参考。  相似文献   

横穿贝加尔湖山脉北部寒区的线性工程     

I.Y. Malchikova 《冰川冻土》2004,26(Z1):206-209

The development of North Transbaikalye mineral resources (e. g. the Chiney deposit of iron titanium-vanadium-magnetite ores and Udokan copper deposits) is impossible without the establishment of industrial and transport infrastructure, one component of which are linear engineering constructions (drive railways, by-line auto roads, platform passages, protecting constructions, and others). However,on condition of spreading permafrost rocks this is conjugated with certain ecological risk just as from the transport network objects so for the objects themselves. A special attention is paid in the paper to considering of problems of projecting and constructing railways on the Udokan ridge.  相似文献