渤海及黄海北部年极值冰厚概率分布的统计分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

段忠东  杨冀东  欧进萍  陆钦年  王俊勤  刘育丰 《海洋科学进展》2000,18(3):34-40

采用渤海及黄海北部后报30a最大冰厚样本序列,采用平稳二项随机过程模型和组合概率分析方法,统计得到了年最大冰厚概率分布,估计了模型参数,并推算了不同重现期的极值冰厚.推算结果表明,该模型较好地刻划了该海域年最大冰厚的概率特性,为渤海海域平台结构设计和可靠性分析提供了重要的荷载基础.  相似文献   

游荡河型造床实验过程中河型的时空演替和复杂响应现象   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

张欧阳  金德生  陈浩 《地理研究》2000,19(2):180-188

运用过程响应模型实验方法,在游荡型模型小河塑造过程中,分析了游荡河型发育过程中出现的时间和空间演变过程,发现其时、空演替过程可以相互替代,从而在实验室内证实了空代时假说的存在性,为空代时假说提供了新的证据。并据此把复杂响应过程分为时间复杂响应过程和空间复杂响应过程,分析了游荡河型发育过程中出现的时空复杂响应现象。  相似文献   

GOALS模式中大气能量循环的诊断分析与不同版本计算结果的比较研究   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

张韬  吴国雄  郭裕福 《大气科学》2006,30(1):38-55

利用大气能量循环框图,对比分析中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学与地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG/IAP)全球海-陆-气耦合系统模式(GOALS)两个版本(GOALS-2和GOALS-4),以及观测的全球平均大气能量循环的主要特征,并从能量循环贮蓄和转换项的纬向平均贡献去解释全球积分值改善和转坏的原因,以及诊断分析参数化方案变化后产生的影响.结果表明:模式的两个版本基本上能正确地模拟出全球能量循环的主要特征.旧版本GOALS-2能较好模拟全球积分值,常常是不同符号局地误差的相互抵消结果.新版本GOALS-4中某种局地过程的改善在一些情况下导致了全球积分值的转坏.引入辐射日变化参数化方案可能对能量循环各参数的局地贡献有着明显的影响.如纬向平均有效位能向瞬变涡动有效位能的斜压转换率、瞬变涡动有效位能向瞬变涡动动能的斜压转换率以及定常涡动动能的局地贡献有明显改善.南极地区不合实际的上升运动,是模拟的纬向平均有效位能与纬向平均动能之间的转换项全球积分值为负数的主要原因.  相似文献   

地铁变形监测中曲线拟合与自回归模型的综合应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

朱海国  尹晖  陈雪丰 《测绘与空间地理信息》2006,29(6):89-91

曲线拟合与自回归是变形监测数据分析的常用方法。本文首先给出曲线拟合和自回归模型的模型形式以及模型正确性的检验方法,然后结合广州某地铁的部分实际监测资料,综合使用两种模型进行变形曲线的拟合与分析,结果表明:该综合模型对变形数据的处理有着显著的优越性。  相似文献   

地球密度模型研究进展与热平衡估计     

陈殿友  邓秀萍 《世界地质》1999,18(1):39-44

地球科学最新研究成果表明,地表物质运动与核幔边界的大规模能量交换过程密切相关,地球动力系统平均温度的演变具有由高到低的整体趋势。越来越多的证据表明,地球内部处于非绝热状态,正在持续进行的地球冷却过程将对地表环境产生重大影响。人类对地球内部热源的开发尽管可以使地表短时期迅速增强,但也造成地球内部长期加速变冷的严重后果。  相似文献   

Geostatistical seismic inversion for non‐stationary patterns using direct sequential simulation and co‐simulation          下载免费PDF全文

Hamid Sabeti  Ali Moradzadeh  Faramarz Doulati Ardejani  Leonardo Azevedo  Amilcar Soares  Pedro Pereira  Ruben Nunes 《Geophysical Prospecting》2017,65(Z1):25-48

Geostatistical seismic inversion methods are routinely used in reservoir characterisation studies because of their potential to infer the spatial distribution of the petro‐elastic properties of interest (e.g., density, elastic, and acoustic impedance) along with the associated spatial uncertainty. Within the geostatistical seismic inversion framework, the retrieved inverse elastic models are conditioned by a global probability distribution function and a global spatial continuity model as estimated from the available well‐log data for the entire inversion grid. However, the spatial distribution of the real subsurface elastic properties is complex, heterogeneous, and, in many cases, non‐stationary since they directly depend on the subsurface geology, i.e., the spatial distribution of the facies of interest. In these complex geological settings, the application of a single distribution function and a spatial continuity model is not enough to properly model the natural variability of the elastic properties of interest. In this study, we propose a three‐dimensional geostatistical inversion technique that is able to incorporate the reservoir's heterogeneities. This method uses a traditional geostatistical seismic inversion conditioned by local multi‐distribution functions and spatial continuity models under non‐stationary conditions. The procedure of the proposed methodology is based on a zonation criterion along the vertical direction of the reservoir grid. Each zone can be defined by conventional seismic interpretation, with the identification of the main seismic units and significant variations of seismic amplitudes. The proposed method was applied to a highly non‐stationary synthetic seismic dataset with different levels of noise. The results of this work clearly show the advantages of the proposed method against conventional geostatistical seismic inversion procedures. It is important to highlight the impact of this technique in terms of higher convergence between real and inverted reflection seismic data and the more realistic approximation towards the real subsurface geology comparing with traditional techniques.  相似文献   

Hydraulic modelling of subglacial tunnel channels,south‐east Alberta,Canada     

Claire L Beaney  Faye E Hicks 《水文研究》2000,14(14):2545-2557

One of the key issues associated with the hypothesis of catastrophic subglacial drainage of the Livingstone Lake event is whether flows of such large magnitudes are physically feasible. To explore this issue, a one‐dimensional hydraulic network flow model was developed to investigate the range of peak discharges and associated flow parameters that may have been carried by a tunnel channel network in south‐east Alberta, Canada. This tunnel channel network has been interpreted elsewhere to carry large discharges associated with subglacial meltwater flows because of the convex longitudinal profiles of individual channels. This computational modelling effort draws upon established and verified engineering principles and methods in its application to the hydraulics of this problem. Consequently, it represents a unique and independent approach to investigating the subglacial meltwater hypothesis. Based on the modelling results, it was determined that energy losses resulting from friction limit the maximum peak discharge that can be transported through the tunnel channel network to 10⁷ m³ s⁻¹, which is in reasonable agreement with previous estimates of flood discharges for proposed megafloods. Results show that flow through channels with convex longitudinal profiles occurs when hydraulic head exceeds 910 m (Lost River) and 950 m (Sage Creek) , respectively. These are considerably below the maximum head capable of driving flow through the system of 1360 m, beyond which ice is decoupled from the bed across the pre‐glacial drainage divide. Therefore, it is concluded that these model results support the hypothesis of catastrophic subglacial drainage during the Livingstone Lake event. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effect of the direction of storm movement on planar flow     

V. P. Singh 《水文研究》1998,12(1):147-170

Using kinematic wave equations, analytical solutions are derived for flow owing to storms moving up and down a plane. By comparing the flow owing to a moving storm with that to an equivalent stationary storm, the influence of storm direction is investigated. The direction of storm movement exercises a significant influence on the peak flow and time to peak flow, as well as the shape of the overland flow hydrograph. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Dynamic soil–structure interaction effects on the seismic response of suspension bridges     

Manish Shrikhande  Vinay K. Gupta 《地震工程与结构动力学》1999,28(11):1383-1403

A stochastic approach has been formulated for the linear analysis of suspension bridges subjected to earthquake excitations. The transfer functions of various responses have been formulated while including the effects of dynamic Soil–Structure Interaction (SSI) via the use of the fixed-base modes of the structure. The excitation has been characterized by the ‘equivalent stationary’ processes corresponding to the free-field motions at each support and by an assumed coherency function between these motions. The proposed formulation considers the non-stationarity in the structural response due to sudden application of excitation by considering (i) the time-dependent frequency response functions, and (ii) the order statistics formulation for the peak factors in evolutionary response processes. The formulation has been illustrated by analysing the seismic response of the Golden Gate Bridge at San Francisco for two example excitations conforming to USNRC-specified design spectra. The significance of various governing parameters on the dynamic soil–structure interaction effects on the seismic response of suspension bridges has also been studied. It has been found that the contribution of the vertical component of ground motion to the bridge response increases with increasing soil compliance. Also, the extent to which the spatial variation of ground motion affects the bridge response depends on how significant the SSI effects are. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献