地下水库调蓄能力综合评价的指标体系与模糊集方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

郑德凤  王本德  年廷凯 《水科学进展》2005,16(5):720-725

从维护生态平衡与水资源可持续开发利用的角度定义了地下水库的调蓄能力,提出地下水库调蓄能力综合评价的指标体系。并在模糊模式识别理论与模型的基础上,去除指标间的相关性,建立一种适合于对多指标体系的地下水库调蓄能力进行综合评价的多层模糊模式识别交叉迭代模型。实例应用表明,该模型具有能同时考虑定性与定量指标,又能将迭代结果与决策者经验知识相结合来确定多指标权重的优点,便于推广应用。  相似文献   

一个简单海气耦合模式预报性能评估     

岳彩军  陆维松陶丽 《南京气象学院学报》2005,28(5):704-709

对改进初始强迫风场后的Zebiak-Cane海气耦合模式预报性能进行了全面评估。结果表明：1）耦合模式在20世纪90年代预报能力小于80年代；提前0～5个月的耦合模式预报能力小于同期持续预报能力，之后则相反；耦合模式对Nino3区指数预报能力最强。2）在1997／1998年El Nino事件期间，耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力大于其对中西太平洋SSTA场的预报能力，且提前0～2个月之后的耦合模式对东太平洋SSTA场预报能力远远大于持续预报。  相似文献   

山东省伏期旱涝评定及其振荡特征分析     

李君  李淑玲 《山东气象》2005,25(3):5-7

利用山东省伏期降水量资料，用Z指数法划分山东伏期旱涝等级，评定伏期极端旱涝年，并与山东省全年、夏季降水的演变进行比较，发现伏期降水的阶段性特点比较明显，而干旱化趋势不明显，存在10年和2～3年的显著周期。  相似文献   

INTENSITY INDEX OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON AND ITS VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS     

吴尚森  梁建茵 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2002,8(1):1-9

According to the basic characteristics of the activities of summer monsoon in the South China Sea,Standardized index,Is,has been designed that integrates a dynamic factor(southwesterly component) and a thermodynamic factor(OLR) for the indication of summer monsoon in the South China Sea,With the index determined for individual months of June,July and August and the entire summertime from 1975 to 1999,specific months and years are indicated that are either strong or weak in monsoon intensity,The variation is studied for the patterns and Is‘s relationship is revealed with the onset of summer monsoon and the precipitation in Guang-dong province and China.The results show that there are quasi-10 and quasi-3-4 year cycles in the interannual variation of the monsooon over the past 25 years.When it has an early(late)onset,the summer monsoon is usually strong (weak),In the strong(weak)monsoon,years,precipitation tends to be more(less)in the first raining season of the year but normal or less(normal)in the second,in the province,but it would be more(less) in northeastern China and most parts of the northern china and south of the lower reaches of the Changjiang River and less(more)in the middle and lower reaches of the river,western part of northern China and western China.  相似文献   

紫外线模式预报方法的研究和试验   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8  

沈元芳  况石 《应用气象学报》2002,13(Z1):223-231

文章介绍了在T106全球谱模式中应用大气辐射传输模式预报紫外线辐射(UVR)的方法,给出了试验运行的结果.UVR强度的划分考虑了到达地表的UVR通量.参考国内、外紫外线(UV)预报服务的经验,制定了5个日光暴露的级别、相应的紫外线指数(UVI)及防护措施.1999年9月起,国家气象中心已在NOTES网上每月不定期地展示UVR预报的一些结果,2000年9月起,在Cray-C92业务操作系统上实施了连续的试验运行.  相似文献   

油田污水中Fe2+,S2-,DO及pH值对HPAM-酚醛CDG成胶性能影响的研究     

陈艳玲  王红梅  谭中良  朱怀江  费琪 《地质科技情报》2002,21(3):61-64

在对河南油田双河矿区油田污水进行全分析的基础上，研究了污水中Fe^2 ,S^2-，溶解氧（DO）及污水的pH值对有机交联体系聚丙烯酰胺（HPAM）－酚醛胶态分散凝胶（CDG）成胶性能的影响。研究结果表明，Fe^2 ,S^2－，DO及污水的pH值对HPAM－酚醛体系的成胶性能都有影响当ρ（Fe^2 )=1.6mg/L,ρ（S^2-)=0.1mg/L,ρ（DO）=1.6mg/L，HPAM－酚醛体系就不能成胶；随着污水pH值的增大，CDG强度变弱。  相似文献   

DGSC—203型液动射流冲击器在地热井的试验   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

菅志军  桑路等 《地质与勘探》2002,38(5):92-93

介绍了新研制的DGSC－203石油钻井液动射液冲击器的性能参数及结构设计上的创新点，测试所获得的排量与压降之间的关系曲线可指导冲击器的使用。生产性试验证明该冲击器工作稳定，可大幅度提高硬地层钻井效率，克服钻柱振动，延长钻柱的使用寿命，具有良好应用前景。  相似文献   

可持续发展评估指标、方法及应用研究   总被引：31，自引：1，他引：31  

张志强  程国栋  徐中民 《冰川冻土》2002,24(4):344-360

可持续发展评估指标及方法研究是可持续发展定量评估研究的基础,是实施可持续发展管理的依据,是生态经济学与可持续发展研究的前沿领域和热点问题之一. 在概括介绍可持续发展评估的工具--指标/指数的概念和功能、国际上代表性可持续发展研究机构指标选取的原则的基础上,全面分析归纳了可持续发展指标(体系)的类型及其框架模式. 详细介绍了联合国可持续发展委员会(UNCSD)、经济合作与发展组织(OECD)、世界保护同盟(IUCN)、世界银行等国际上代表性机构的可持续发展系统性指标体系的最新研究进展,并分析了这些系统性指标体系的优缺点. 深入分析了国际上典型的社会发展类、经济发展类、生态环境类可持续发展指标(指数)的研究、开发与实际评估应用的情况. 最后,总结了当前可持续发展指标(体系)研究的特点与趋势.  相似文献   

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data     

Fengjun Zhang  Albert C. Reynolds  Dean S. Oliver 《Mathematical Geology》2002,34(6):715-742

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.  相似文献   

Drought in Bulgaria and atmospheric synoptic conditions over Europe   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Liem Tran  C. Gregory Knight  Victoria Wesner 《GeoJournal》2002,57(3):149-157

Drought in Bulgaria is analyzed from the multiple viewpoints of statistical occurrence, spatial patterns, and synoptic conditions. A new index of drought, the SD (spatial-dryness) index, characterizes drought by both intensity and spatial extent. The occurrence of the SD index is analyzed using global gridded data sets. Examination of transitional probabilities of multiple months and years with drought occurrence suggests persistence is sufficiently frequent to be important for climate-related environmental planning. Finally, it is shown that specific seasonal synoptic patterns are associated with wet and dry conditions in Bulgaria. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献