Predicting daily streamflow in ungauged rural catchments: the case of Masinga catchment,Kenya     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):292-304

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FLOW DISTURBANCE CAUSED BY CROSS-STREAM COARSE WOODY DEBRIS     

John T. Beebe 《自然地理学》2013,34(3):222-236

Coarse woody debris affects many streams in forested regions throughout the world. These effects include lateral channel migration, bank slumping, and aggradational or erosional features related to flow redirection. The extent of effect is dependent on the ability of the system to resist the new forces derived from flow redirection. This study on the Pine River, Ontario, looks at how obstructions that are perpendicular to downstream flow modify fluid behavior. Results show that fluctuations in speed and approach azimuth vary considerably depending on the position of the sample relative to the obstruction. The use of time-averaged (1 sec., 30 sec.) recordings of fluid speed and azimuth at selected channel locations shows how flow adjusts to external controls as it moves away from the obstruction zone, giving an indication of the spatial extent of the obstruction influence. These data are represented as a function of the diameter of the obstruction relative to the surrounding flow depth (obstruction ratio), and then are compared to results found in other debris obstructions on the Pine River and Wilmot Creek. Flow obstruction dimensions in the study site equal 26.5 trunk diameters (the average diameter of the tree trunk measured five times along its length), and range between 16.9 and 56.7 trunk diameters on the Pine River (n = 48) and between 7.4 and 63.5 trunk diameters on Wilmot Creek (n = 1066). Knowledge of these spatial relationships may allow for better management of woody debris in streams, primarily from the perspective of aquatic habitat. Multiquadric interpolation formed the basis for plotting fluid vector fields, showing the behavior of flow as it approached and moved through the obstruction zone. This is compared to studies of flow in unobstructed meanders in an attempt to quantify obstruction influence, and is used to provide a depiction of flow under these circumstances. [Key words: flow patterns, woody debris, influence zones, stream management.]  相似文献   

概念性流域水文模型参数多目标优化率定          下载免费PDF全文

郭俊  周建中  周超  王光谦  张勇传 《水科学进展》2012,23(4):447-456

针对传统基于单一目标的水文模型参数优化率定方法不能充分挖掘水文系统不同动态行为特征的缺陷,提出一种多目标文化混合复形差分进化算法(Multi-objective Culture Shuffled Complex Differential Evolution,MOCSCDE)用于求解水文模型参数多目标优化问题。MOCSCDE算法将混合复形进化算法(Shuffled Complex Evolution,SCE-UA)置于文化算法(Cultural Algorithms,CA)进化的框架中,利用种群进化过程中提取的各种知识指导算法的运行,提高算法的运行效率,同时考虑到SCE-UA中单纯形算子不能充分利用种群个体信息的不足,采用全局搜索能力强的差分进化算法(Differential Evolution,DE)替代单纯形算子,可以更加充分利用种群个体信息进行演化计算,进一步提高算法的计算效率。将MOCSCDE算法应用于概念性水文模型——新安江模型的参数多目标优化率定,并与NSGA-Ⅱ和SPEA2算法进行对比分析,结果表明MOCSCDE算法的收敛性和分布性均优于NSGA-Ⅱ和SPEA2,可为水文预报提供更为全面可靠的参数组合决策依据。  相似文献   

汶川地震断裂带科学钻探工程一号孔主断层的随钻流体响应特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

唐力君  王广  王健  王晓春  刘舒波  聂武 《地球学报》2013,34(1):95-102

汶川地震断裂带科学钻探工程(WFSD)的主要研究目的是探讨龙门山断裂带深部断裂的物质属性。随钻实时流体分析作为井口流体实时监测手段,首次获得了龙门山断裂带随钻流体组分响应特征,在一号孔(WFSD-1)主断层上出现随钻流体多组分同时异常,且异常强度大。通过比较WFSD-1号孔主断层的钻探岩心岩性和随钻流体组分剖面,认为随钻流体组分的异常区间与主断层的区间保持一致,表明流体异常与断层的响应特征,主断层区间的流体异常为多组分的极值异常,强度与断层泥厚度成正比。这些钻探泥浆气体响应特征将为钻探工程、取心钻进提供第一时间支持。  相似文献   

冻土退化对海拉尔河流域水文过程的影响          下载免费PDF全文

陆胤昊  叶柏生  李翀 《水科学进展》2013,24(3):319-325

利用海拉尔河流域内气象站点1974—2006年冻土冻结深度资料和水文站点1974—2008年的径流资料,通过建立冻结深度和径流的关系,研究了区域近30年来冻土变化对径流变化的影响。结果表明:近30年来,海拉尔、坝后和红花尔基水文站1~3月份径流量有13%~20%的增长,牙克石水文站径流量增长不显著。退水曲线由陡峭趋于平滑,冬季2月份径流量与秋季11月份径流量比值呈增大趋势,同期流域冻土的最大冻结深度减小了50 cm左右。这表明海拉尔河流域冬季退水过程有减缓趋势且冻土的退化是导致退水变慢的主要原因。冻土退化的这一水文效应主要是由于:① 随着冻土年内隔水效应减弱,流域内有更多的地表水入渗变成地下水,造成流域地下水储水量加大,导致冬季径流增加; ② 随着春夏季冻土平均厚度的减薄,流域地下水库库容增加,地下水枯季径流补给能力增强,导致流域退水时间延迟;③ 冻土对气候变暖的响应是一个缓慢的过程,因此冻土退化对径流过程的影响也是一个渐变过程。  相似文献   

Reliability of reanalysis and remotely sensed precipitation products for hydrological simulation over the Sefidrood River Basin,Iran     

《水文科学杂志》2012,57(2):296-310

ABSTRACT

Hydrological models require different inputs for the simulation of processes, among which precipitation is essential. For hydrological simulation, four different precipitation products – Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE); European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim); Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) real time (RT); and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Arti?cial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) – are compared against ground-based datasets. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model was calibrated for the Sefidrood River Basin (SRB), Iran. APHRODITE and ERA-Interim gave better rainfall estimates at daily time scale than other products, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.79 and 0.63, and correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.91 and 0.82, respectively. At the monthly time scale, the CC between all rainfall datasets and ground observations is greater than 0.9, except for TMPA-RT. Hydrological assessment indicates that PERSIANN is the best rainfall dataset for capturing the streamflow and peak flows for the studied area (CC: 0.91, NSE: 0.80).  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River Basin of northwest China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Zhonggen Wang  Darren L. Ficklin  Yongyong Zhang  Minghua Zhang 《水文研究》2012,26(18):2733-2744

Climate change may significantly affect the hydrological cycle and water resource management, especially in arid and semi‐arid regions. In this paper, output from the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model were used in conjunction with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse the effects of climate change on streamflow of the Xiying and Zamu rivers in the Shiyang River basin, an important arid region in northwest China. After SWAT model calibration and validation, streamflow in the Shiyang River Basin was simulated using the PRECIS climate model data for greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 (high emission rate) and B2 (low emission rate) developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Monthly streamflow and hydrological extremes were compared for present‐day years (1961–1990), the 2020s (2011–2040), 2050s (2041–2070) and 2080s (2071–2100). The results show that mean monthly streamflow in Shiyang River Basin generally increased in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s between 0.7–6.1% at the Zamu gauging station and 0.1–4.8% at the Xiying gauging station. The monthly minimum streamflow increased persistently, but the maximum monthly streamflows increased in the 2020s and slightly decreased in the 2050s and 2080s. This study provides valuable information for guiding future water resource management in the Shiyang River Basin and other arid and semi‐arid regions in China. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comparison of daily streamflow forecasts using extreme learning machines and the random forest method   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

《水文科学杂志》2012,57(15):1857-1866

ABSTRACT

Daily streamflow forecasting is a challenging and essential task for water resource management. The main goal of this study was to compare the accuracy of five data-driven models: extreme learning machine (basic ELM), extreme learning machine with kernels (ELM-kernel), random forest (RF), back-propagation neural network (BPNN) and support vector machine (SVR). The results show that the ELM-kernel model provided a superior alternative to the other models, and the basic ELM model had the poorest performance. To further evaluate the predictive capacities of the five models, the estimations of low flow and high flow in the testing dataset were compared. The RF model was slightly superior to the other models in predicting the peak flows, and the ELM-kernel model showed the highest prediction precision of low flows. There was no single model that showed obvious advantages over the other models in this study. Therefore, further exploration is required for the hydrological forecasting problems.  相似文献   

西北干旱区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  

李宝富  陈亚宁  陈忠升  李卫红 《地理学报》2012,67(11):1461-1470

利用8 个山区气象站1960-2010 年日平均气温、降水和7 个出山口水文站的年径流数据(1960-2008), 统计分析了山区融雪期开始时间、结束时间、天数、温度和降水的变化趋势及其空间差异性, 并定量评估了年径流量对融雪期温度和降水变化的敏感性。结果表明, 近50年来, 山区融雪期平均提前了15.33 天, 延迟了9.19 天;其中, 天山南部山区融雪期提前时间最长, 为20.01 天, 而延迟时间最短, 仅6.81 天;祁连山北部山区融雪期提前时间最短(10.16天), 而延迟时间最长(10.48 天)。这显示山区融雪期提前时间越长, 延迟时间则越短。山区融雪期平均降水量增加了47.3 mm, 平均温度升高了0.857℃;其中天山南部山区降水增量最大, 达65 mm, 昆仑山北部山区降水和温度增量均最小, 分别为25 mm和0.617℃, 而祁连山北部山区温度增量最高(1.05℃)。河流径流量对融雪期气候变化敏感, 降水变化诱发年径流量变化了7.69%, 温度变化使得年径流量改变了14.15%。  相似文献   

城市环境对重气扩散的影响及其验证     

黄江平  王喜全  王自发 《气候与环境研究》2012,17(3):274-280

开发了适合城市环境下的应急重气扩散模型——SLAB_URBAN模型,该模型能够对城市环境下重气的传输扩散过程进行模拟。模型的原理基于重气扩散浅层理论,采用了新的城市边界层和扩散参数的参数化方案。该方案考虑了城市冠层内特有的风和湍流扩散的特征,能够体现城市边界层和湍流对重气扩散的影响。对美国盐湖城Urban2000的城市扩散试验进行模拟,主要验证下风方向观测弧所观测到的气体最大小时平均浓度与源释放速率的比值。结果表明,模型能够比较好地模拟出下风方向上浓度的分布特征。另外,与国外同类城市扩散模型的比较来看,SLAB_URBAN模型的模拟能力居于前列。  相似文献