It is expected that a roughly two-year forecast of the Kuroshio transport variation can be made from a past record of wind
stress data over the ocean, since it takes nearly ten years for the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave to traverse the entire
basin in the midlatitude North Pacific (∼30°N). We therefore investigated the predictability using an ocean general circulation
model driven by the wind stress data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric
Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. Referring to a hindcast experiment as the control run, we carried out fifteen forecast experiments,
the initial conditions of which are taken from the hindcast experiment at intervals of two years during the period from the
end of 1969 to the end of 1997. Each of the forecast experiments is driven only by wind stress in the year preceding each
experiment. The forecasted Kuroshio transport anomaly south of Japan agrees better with the hindcasted one during the first
two years of the forecast in most cases. In some cases, however, significant disagreements occur, most of which are likely
due to larger unpredictable variations caused by wind stress anomalies near Japan. At the end of forecast year 2, the anomaly
correlation coefficient is about 0.7, and rms of the forecast error is smaller than rms of the hindcasted anomaly. These results
indicate that the prediction of the interannual variability in the Kuroshio transport could be made two years in advance at
a statistically significant level.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献
Rock-magnetic measurements along with grain size, acid-insoluble residue (AIR), organic carbon (OC), CaCO3 and δ18O of the planktonic foraminifers of the sediments were determined for 15 gravity cores recovered from the western continental margin of India. Magnetic susceptibility (MS) values in the surficial sediments reflect the land-derived input and, in general, are the highest in terrigenous sediment-dominated sections of the cores off Saurashtra–Ratnagiri, followed by the sediments off Indus–Gulf of Kachchh and then Mangalore–Cape Comorin.
The down-core variations in mineral magnetic parameters reveal that the glacial sediments off the Indus are characterized by low MS values/S-ratios associated with high AIR-content, low OC/CaCO3 contents and relatively high δ18O values, while those off SW India are characterized by low MS values/high S-ratio% associated with low AIR content, and relatively high OC, CaCO3 and δ18O values. Conversely, the Early Holocene sediments of all cores are characterized by high MS values/S-ratio% associated with high AIR content, low OC, CaCO3 contents and gradually decreased δ18O values. These results imply that during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the cores off northwestern India received abundant continental supply leading to the predominance of eolian/fluvial sedimentation. In the SW region the influence of hinterland flux is less evident during this period, but convective mixing associated with the NE monsoon resulted in increased productivity. During the early Holocene intense SW monsoon conditions resulted in high precipitation on land, which in turn contributed increased AIR content/MS values in the continental margin sediments. A shallow water core off Kochi further suggests that the intense SW monsoon conditions prevailed until about 5 ka. The late Holocene organic-rich sediments of the SW margin of India were, however, subjected to early diagenesis at different intervals in the cores. Therefore, caution is needed when interpreting regional climatic change from down-core changes in sediment magnetic properties. 相似文献
Abstract. The major changes within the concepts of marine ecology are investigated, with the aim to design this new journal's scientific format. Four phases of marine sciences are distinguished: the phase of seafarers, of oceanographic expeditions, of marine stations, and of field research. The changes in the latter two are discussed in detail. The changes are described as occurring along three axes. First, as a movement towards the object; accomplished by fieldwork, scientific diving, remote controlled equipment, and by underwater experimentation. Second, the cooperation between several disciplines that led towards bridging gaps. And lastly, how the discovery of unifying principles in ecology (the development of an ecological theory) led the approach in marine ecology towards increasing complexity. 相似文献
