春季一次暴雪过程的多普勒雷达动力学诊断   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

苗爱梅  安炜  刘月丽  胡志群  李清华 《气象》2007,33(2):57-61

利用太原C波段多普勒天气雷达基数据资料和自动雨量站资料，对2006年4月11日发生在山西省的一次区域性暴雪过程进行了分析。应用改进的EVAD技术，定量计算垂直高度层的平均散度和平均垂直速度，并分析平均散度和平均垂直速度随时间和高度的变化以及与降雪的对应关系。结果表明：2．5km以下始终维持一个较强的上升气流，是强降雪维持的基本动力条件；整层出现辐合上升运动，且强上升速度中心的高度随时间的演变逐渐下降，同时中高层出现强辐散下沉气流与之配合时，未来2小时将出现强降雪；降雪的强度与雷达探测范围内各高度层的辐舍、辐散有着密切的关系，且辐合、辐散的增强与减弱时间早于降雪强度的增大和减小时间，这对预报降雪的生消、雪强的增大与减小提供了一定的理论依据。  相似文献   

集合敏感性分析在北半球中纬度高影响天气中的应用     

郑明华  杜钧  Brian A.Colle 《气象科学进展》2020,10(2):42-57

总结回顾了集合敏感性分析(ESA)在诊断中纬度高影响天气预报不确定性中的应用。作为一个简单高效且不需要大量计算资源的方法,集合敏感性分析主要被应用在中纬度气旋、台风或飓风的温带转换,以及在强对流过程中诊断预报误差和不确定性的来源。集合敏感性方法极有灵活性,可以根据实际需要改变不同的预报变量和初始场。在对2010年美国东岸圣诞节暴风雪的分析中,集合敏感性分析通过三种形式来诊断了预报不确定性的初值敏感性,即基于EOF分析的敏感性、预报差别的敏感性,以及基于短期预报误差的向前积分敏感性回归。三种方法证实气旋路径的不确定性主要和位于美国南部大平原的短波槽初始误差相关。此外,气旋强度的不确定性还和产生于北太平洋向下游延伸的罗斯贝波列相关。集合敏感性分析方法对于分析中纬度气旋的不确定性、诊断初值敏感性、分析误差发展机制都非常有效。集合敏感性分析也被应用于分析台风/飓风的温带气旋转换过程的不确定性。在对2019年美国首个主要登陆台风Dorian的分析中发现,加拿大CMC的集合预报主要不确定性来自于强度的不确定性,而这个不确定性与初始时刻的大尺度环流型有关,较连贯的信号可以追溯至东北太平洋的前倾槽。而NCEP和ECMWF的不确定性主要在于气旋位置的东北—西南向移动,而敏感性主要和飓风系统本身(即其北部低压区和中纬度槽)的锁相有关。分析结果进一步验证了集合敏感性分析对诊断模式之间的不一致性,以及模式成员之间不一致性的不确定性来源和发展过程的可靠性。集合敏感性分析方法综合了集合预报、资料同化和敏感性分析,因此对于资料同化技术改进、诊断模式误差(或者缺陷)、附加(目标)观测最优策略,以及评估观测对预报的影响等都有重要意义。同时可以更有效地利用集合预报信息,帮助预报员提高情景意识,最终减少高影响天气预报中的决策失误。  相似文献   

燕山事件   总被引：29，自引：2，他引：27  

张宏仁 《地质学报》1998,72(2):103-111

“燕山运动”是对中国大陆影响很大的一次地壳变动,北京地区的实际资料表明它是在快速侧向挤压应力作用下,以突发的民块活动为开端,并继之以拉张,导致基性岩浆喷溢,花岗岩侵入,冯及一系列沉积盆地的形成。中国东部其他地区也经历了类似的历史,“燕山运动”从现象看是一次来自太平洋方向快速打击的结果,地槽造山理论和板块学说都难以给出解答,用燕山事件能更确切地描绘有关现象。本文在排除了其他可能性以后,提出燕山事故的  相似文献   

陕西段家坡黄土剖面中布容／松山古地磁界线附近铱异常的发现及其启示   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

马配学  侯泉林 《地质学报》1998,72(2):173-177

利用高灵敏度放射化学中子活化分析方法,对我国陕西段家坡黄土剖面早－中更新统（约０．７３Ｍａ）沉积界线附近铱和其它元素的丰度进行了测定。结果表明,在布容／松山（Ｂ／Ｍ）古地磁界线附近铱的含量明显增大,最大值为４６．３ｐｇ／ｇ。相对于整个剖面的平均背景值（约１５ｐｇ／ｇ）大约富集了３倍。用地壳元素钪进行标准化之后,铱异常十分明显,而其它元素在界线附近则没有变化。黄土剖面上铱异常的赋存层位与西南太平洋钻  相似文献   

东北地区5 000 aB.P.～4 700 aB.P.左右的降温事件及对考古文化的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

李永化  尹怀宁  张小咏  赵军 《云南地理环境研究》2003,15(1):12-18

距今5000年左右世界各地普遍存在一次幅度较大的短期降温气候事件，通过对金川剖面泥炭地层14C测年，孢粉分析，认为东北地区此次降温事件结束的14C年龄在4700aB.P.左右，降温事件出现之前气候温暖湿润，降温事件过后温度持续下降，金川剖面的记录与东北地区其它类型沉积物所记录的降温事件出现的时间基本吻合，降温事件对燕辽地区古文化演变产生了深刻的影响。  相似文献   

RESIDUAL POST-IR IRSL SIGNALS OF POTASSIUM FELDSPAR FROM MODERN SAG POND DEPOSITS OF CENTRAL ALTYN TAGH FAULT: IMPLICATION FOR DATING YOUNG PALEOSEISMIC EVENTS          下载免费PDF全文

QIN Jin-tang  CHEN Jie  LI Tao 《地震地质》1979,42(4):981-992

The Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF)is one of the most prominent active strike-slip faults in the India-Eurasia collision. Fresh features of surface ruptures, which are attributed to seismic events taking place in the last millennium, are identified at several sites along the Che'erchen River to Qingshui River section on the central part of ATF. Accurate chronology of these earthquake events would help understand the spatial-temporal relationship of the recent earthquakes. However, great difficulties are encountered. The central ATF is located in the arid area, and the vegetation cover is so limited that rare organic materials appropriate for radiocarbon dating can be found in the sediments. Luminescence dating technique may serve as an alternative to directly determine the burial ages of the earthquake related sediments. The optically stimulated luminescence(OSL)signal of quartz, which has been widely employed for luminescence dating, displays unwanted charateristics for accurate dating. Firstly, the quartz OSL signal is not sensitive to irradiation, which leads to low signal-to-noise ratio or even no measurable quartz OSL signal. Secondly, the targeted samples of the last millennium are very young, and the radiation dose received during the burial is expected to be less than 3~4Gy, which futher deteriorates the signal-to-noise ratio of the quartz OSL signal. Therefore, quartz OSL signal is not appropriate for dating the sediments relevant to the recent earthquakes on ATF.
The infrared stimulated luminescence(IRSL)signal of potassium feldspar is an alternative, and it is in usual an order of maginitude more sensitive to raidation than the quartz OSL signal. The enhanced signal-to-noise ratio makes it applicable to young samples. The post-IR IRSL signal has been successfully applied to date the sediments beyond the Holocene, however, the relatively slow bleaching of the post-IR IRSL signal poses challenges on applying it to young sediments, especially for the sediments deposited during the last millennium. In this study, we investigated the feasibility of using post-IR IRSL signal from potassium feldspar to date the earthquake events of the last millennium by employing modern sag pond deposits with different sorting and expected equivalent dose(D_e)of 0Gy. Choosing an appropriate measurement procedure and identifying the well bleached pottassium feldspar grains are essential for post-IR IRSL dating of young sediments. The non-fading characteristic of the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ signal measured at 170℃ following a prior IR stimulation at 110℃ was verified by employing the D_e plateau test with respect to the signal integration interval and IR stimulation temperature together. Reducing the amount of potassium feldspar grains mounted on an aliquot would help reveal the among grains variation of bleaching level of post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ signal before depostion and identify the most sufficiently bleached grains. Therefore, the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ D_e values of 2mm aliquots were measured for three samples with different sedimentary textures. The median of D_e distribution of well sorted and stratified sag pond deposits is consistent with the minimum D_e value inferred from the minimum age model(MAM-3) and finite mixture model(FMM), while for the poorly sorted deposits, the median is significantly overestimated compared with the minimum D_e values from the MAM-3 and the FMM. The minimum D_e values of 0.6~0.8Gy of all three samples are consistent with the unbleachable residual dose previously reported for post-IR IRSL signals measured at similar temperature for well bleached samples. It implies that by combined use of small aliquot and statistical age models, the well-bleached potassium feldspar grains could be identified. Such an intrinsic unbleachable component needs to be properly corrected when earthquake events of last millennium are to be dated in this area. Otherwise, the post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ age would be overestimated by 200~300a.
The post-IR IRSL₁₇₀ procedure investigated in this study is not only applicable for dating the paleoearthquake events along the Altyn Tagh Fault, but also with great potential to be applied to other tectonically active area. With consideration of the potential variability in post-IR IRSL signal characteristics of potassium feldspar grains from different origins, the signal stability needs to be routinely inspected. The modern analog sample would also be informative for justifying the measurement procedure and analytical method employed.  相似文献   

南昌市降水概率预报方法研究(一)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

曹晓岗 《气象与减灾研究》1998,(2)

主要介绍了降水概率预报的事件概率回归方法,1997年试用表明这种方法有一定的参考价值。  相似文献   

Two‐dimensional physically based finite element runoff model for small agricultural watersheds: I. Model development     

Anil Bhardwaj  M. P. Kaushal 《水文研究》2009,23(3):397-407

Soil erosion by water is the root cause of ecological degradation in the Shiwalik foothills of Northern India. Simulation of runoff and its component processes is a pre‐requisite to develop the management strategies to tackle the problem, successfully. A two‐dimensional physically based distributed numerical model, ROMO2D has been developed to simulate runoff from small agricultural watersheds on an event basis. The model employs the 2‐D Richards equation with sink term to simulate infiltration and soil moisture dynamics in the vadoze zone under variable rainfall conditions, and 2‐D Saint‐Venant equations under the kinematic wave approximation along with Manning's equation as the stage‐discharge equation for runoff routing. The various flow‐governing equations have been solved numerically by employing a Galerkin finite element method for spatial discretization using quadrilateral elements and finite difference techniques for temporal solutions. The ROMO2D computer program has been developed as a class‐based program, coded in C + + in such a way that with minor modifications, the model can be used to simulate runoff on a continuous basis. The model writes output for a runoff hydrograph of each storm. Model development is described in this paper and the results of model testing and field application are to be presented in a subsequent paper. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Thermodynamics of rare events and impulsive relaxation events in the magnetospheric substorm dynamics     

Giuseppe Consolini  Matthieu Kretzschmar 《Planetary and Space Science》2007,55(15):2244-2250

The magnetosphere dynamics shows fast relaxation events following power-law distribution for many observable quantities during magnetic substorms. The emergence of such power-law distributions has been widely discussed in the framework of self-organized criticality and/or turbulence. Here, a different approach to the statistical features of these impulsive dynamical events is proposed in the framework of the thermodynamics of rare events [Lavenda, B.H., Florio, A., 1992. Thermodynamics of rare events, Int. J. Theor. Phys. 31, 1455–1475; Lavenda, B.H., 1995. Thermodynamics of Extremes. Albion]. In detail, an application of such a novel approach to the magnetospheric substorm avalanching dynamics as monitored by the auroral electroject index is discussed.  相似文献   

2009-2013年普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量的年际变化及其与全球气候事件的关系     

扈传昱  韩正兵  孙维萍  陈际雨 《海洋与湖沼》2015,46(2):285-294

利用中国南极科学考察期间获得的颗粒物样品,对南大洋普里兹湾海域水体中生物硅的含量分布及年际变化情况进行了分析。研究结果显示:在2013年夏季普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量在0.38—8.62μmol/dm3之间变化,平均为1.55±1.86μmol/dm3。生物硅在67°S以南湾内区域表层水体中的含量明显高于67°S以北的湾外区域,最大值出现在普里兹湾陆架区,生物因子是表层水体生物硅含量分布的主控因子。根据不同年份即25、26、27、28、29次南极科学考察期间获取的数据研究显示,普里兹湾表层水体中生物硅含量存在明显的年际差异。历史数据分析结果表明,气候事件对普里兹湾海冰变化有明显的影响,因而对相应年份该海域浮游植物数量和种群结构也会产生一定的影响,从而导致表层水体中生物硅含量的年际差异。  相似文献