福建城乡震灾快速评估系统设计     

王辉山  傅再扬  于威宇  陈琳 《地震地磁观测与研究》2011,32(6):150-155

充分借鉴目前国内外工程地震和震害预测研究成果,结合福建实际震例,利用GIS技术、Web技术,设计开发区域范围震害预测及震灾快速评估系统,即福建城乡震灾快速评估系统.利用该系统平台对1992年以来发生在福建有较大影响的6次中强地震进行震灾快速评估,并将系统评估计算结果与实际震害调查评估结果进行对比分析,给出系统评估结果与...  相似文献   

县(市)绝对地震应急能力评估方法的初步研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

邓砚  聂高众  苏桂武 《地震地质》2011,33(1):36-44

县(市)地震应急能力的高低直接关系到中国整个地震应急工作的成效.从县(市)绝对地震应急能力的内涵分析出发,结合汶川地震灾区县(市)地震应急能力实地调研工作取得的认识,首先初步构建了县(市)绝对地震应急能力指标体系框架;然后以四川省县(市)为例,在遵循科学性、系统优化和可操作性原则的基础上,构建了围绕着1个目标层,设定5...  相似文献   

淮河上游暴雨事件评估模型   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

郑国  薛建军  范广洲  李泽椿 《应用气象学报》2011,22(6):753-759

暴雨灾害是我国面临的主要气象灾害之一,对其进行评估具有重要的理论和现实意义。该文以气象降水数据为基础建立数据集,采用统计分析的方法建立暴雨事件评估模型,对淮河流域上游的暴雨事件进行评估。该模型选取了4项描述暴雨事件的指标:区域平均日降水量、区域最大日降水量、覆盖范围和持续时间,通过对淮河上游16个站1961—2007年逐日降水量资料的统计分析,按概率分布划分出这4项指标的各等级标准,从而建立暴雨事件等级标准评估矩阵,而需要评估的暴雨事件等级则通过计算该暴雨事件各指标所组成的向量与等级标准评估矩阵中各等级所组成的列向量之间的欧式距离来确定。通过对历史资料及2008年4月—2010年7月发生的暴雨事件实况资料进行评估,发现评估结果与其所造成的实际影响对应较好,说明该模型对暴雨事件等级的划分较为合理。  相似文献   

徐州农业生产面临气象灾害风险的评估     

孙光东  蔡勤  栾承淼 《气象科学》2011,(S1):105-109

根据徐州市历年来各种气象灾害对农业造成影响的资料, 应用信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型, 对徐州地区洪涝、干旱、风雹和霜冻等气象灾害进行风险评估, 并对客观风险评估值进行分析, 得到与历史上实际灾害发生的概率较吻合的结论, 使用这种方法为我们开展气象灾害风险评估提供了客观的数据。  相似文献   

气象灾害应急管理能力评价   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

韩颖  岳贤平  崔维军 《气象科技》2011,39(2):242-246

建立气象灾害应急能力评价指标体系对增强应对气象灾害管理能力和提高灾害的应急响应能力有重要的意义。从系统理论的角度出发,基于气象灾害应急管理的特征和结构的分析,运用层次分析法原理,构建了由气象灾害预警防御能力、政府组织能力、支撑保障能力3个1级指标和15个2级指标组成的气象灾害应急管理能力的评价指标体系,可为提高气象灾害应急管理能力和防灾减灾提供科学依据。  相似文献   

南宁市蔗糖行业人工增雨服务效益调查评估     

罗伟  黄中雄 《气象研究与应用》2011,32(2):43-46

分析了南宁市种植甘蔗的气候适应性,以及降雨量与甘蔗生长、蔗茎产量及含糖量的关系,并对比分析了为南宁糖业股份有限公司所属蔗区实施人工增雨前后的甘蔗产量及蔗糖分,认为蔗糖分前后变化不大,但实施人工增雨后甘蔗产量有较显著提高,从而能获得令人满意的经济效益;在此基础上提出了做好人工增雨工作的改进思路。  相似文献   

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction     

Bin Ye  Jingjing Jiang  Junguo Liu  Yi Zheng  Nan Zhou 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.  相似文献   

Managing expert-information uncertainties for assessing collapse susceptibility of abandoned underground structures     

Aude Nachbaur  Jérémy Rohmer 《Engineering Geology》2011,(3):166

Assessing the collapse susceptibility of abandoned cavities at a regional scale is associated with large uncertainties that are mainly related to the very nature of the phenomena, but also to the difficulty in collecting exhaustive information at such a scale on often “forgotten” structures. In this context, the expert's role is essential, because he is able to synthesize the information resulting from the inventory and from the commonly imprecise, if not vague, criteria on the basis of his experience and his knowledge of the geological, historical, economic regional context.In this article, we propose mathematical tools for representing and processing this information in order to give flexibility to this step and manage the uncertainty inherent in the expert's information. The first tool, based on the weight of evidence theory, is for managing the uncertainty due to the heterogeneous spatial distribution of the data, whereas the second tool, based on the fuzzy set theory, is for managing the imprecision and incompleteness of available data, which hinder the definition of the class boundaries of the quantitative decision criteria. Based on an appropriate representation of the uncertainty sources (related to the input data and to the expert diagnostic), we then propose a methodology that integrates the uncertainty in the final output of the collapse susceptibility assessment and provides a confidence indicator useful within the decision-making process. The proposed methodology is applied to the Arras territory in the North of France, where abandoned chalk pits (dating back to the Roman ages) and war saps located in the vicinity of the First World War front lines (i.e. covered trenches), raise both difficulties for urban planning.  相似文献   

地球化学块体理论在青海沱沱河地区铅锌资源潜力预测中的应用   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

刘长征  陈岳龙  许光  赵娟  李玥  李琳业  姬丙艳  汪元奎 《地学前缘》2011,18(5):271-282

以地球化学块体理论为基础的方法和技术确定了沱沱河铅锌地球化学块体的下限和含量级次,对沱沱河地区铅锌元素的地球化学块体进行了划分,总结了地球化学块体在空间上的分布规律,通过研究地球化学块体内部结构,追踪大型至特大型矿床可能存在的地点。根据已知地区的矿产探明储量与地球化学块体的关系,计算了该地区成矿率,预测了区内铅锌矿资源潜力,同时指出在块体内还存在巨大的寻找铅锌矿产资源的潜力。  相似文献   

BP神经网络在某油田区地下水质量评价中的应用     

吕敦玉  余楚  周爱国  周建伟  蔡鹤生 《地质科技情报》2011,30(3):108-111

对误差反向传播(error back propagation,简称BP)人工神经网络在水质评价中应用的原理进行了分析,并将其应用于地下水质量评价.首先,利用MATLAB7的神经网络工具箱,根据GB/T 14848-93《地下水质量标准》,构建出10-11-5三层结构的BP人工神经网络模型,并对某油田区的地下水水质进行了...  相似文献