河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

胡国华  夏军  赵沛伦 《地理科学》2002,22(2):249-252

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。  相似文献   

韧-脆性剪切带构造控矿演化模式--以青海省乌兰县托莫尔日特金矿区为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张拴宏  周显强  纪占胜 《矿物岩石》2003,23(1):37-41

通过对青海省乌兰县托莫尔日特金矿区韧－脆性剪切带变形特征、成矿物质与热液来源及运移条件分析，提出了该区构造控矿演化的四阶段模式。该模式认为，早期的韧性剪切变形导致了成矿物质的由深部向浅部、由韧性剪切带外部向韧性剪切带内部的活化迁移，成矿热液在韧性剪切带上部（即韧脆性转换带附近）得以大量聚集。韧性变形后期温压条件降低，韧性变形转化为脆性变形，地表大气降水沿贯通性较强的脆性破裂带大量下渗，到达韧－脆性转换带附近，与该处积聚的成矿热液充分混合，热液性质发生改变，在相对张性或较薄弱的构造有利部位大量沉淀。由于断裂带的周期性活动，成矿物质得到多次沉淀而不断富集，最终形成金矿体。矿体形成后的构造隆升及剥蚀作用，使韧－脆性剪切带出露地表，金矿床也随之出露到近地表处。因此在矿区石英脉型金矿体的下部，可能会存在糜棱岩型金矿体，但品位可能会有所下降。  相似文献   

砂岩铀矿的自相似结构     

戴杰敏 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2003,22(1):47-55

改变统计域，矿化参数的概率分布型式和相关关系并不改变，形成自相似的无穷嵌套的层次结构图像。本以上第三系陆相砂岩铀矿床为例，从统计意义上说明矿化空间分布的自相似结构。  相似文献   

浅论新疆海相火山热水沉积矿床的分带及其找矿意义   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

王永新  田培仁 《地质与勘探》2003,39(4):6-11

新疆海相火山热水沉积矿床，一般在时间上没有明显的集中生长期。空间上依附于活动大陆边缘火山岛弧带，它在区域上和矿床本身具有矿种转化、类型转换、配套与分带特征。以块状氧化物、块状碳酸盐和块状硫化物转换序次来研究该类矿床。利用铁木尔特铅锌矿上部铅锌下部铜金，预须开普台铁矿上铁下铜；莫托沙拉铁锰矿上锰下铁中间铅锌重晶石等矿种转化规律和由块状氧化物和块状碳酸盐向块状硫化物成生过渡特点，预测诸如蒙库铁矿、赤龙峰火山盆地中铁矿和喀喇昆仑山各铁矿床(点)外围与深部转换、发展成为铜金矿的成矿前景。  相似文献   

巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡稳定可靠性研究     

丛培夫  杨志波 《世界地质》2003,22(3):303-308

以巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡为例，在前人稳定性评价的基础上，建立了基于剩余推力法和Sarma法的边坡稳定可靠性分析模型，分析表明边坡系统可靠性指标(β，Pf)能更准确地表达边坡稳定性、安全性和工程风险水平。  相似文献   

基于自然水系网信息的元素运移分析     

侯遵泽  徐振邦 《物探化探计算技术》2003,25(1):65-69

地面上的矿物或污染物元素主要是随水系而运移的。因此，利用自然水系网信息来定量分析元素沿水系的迁移、分散，对于地质找矿和环境保护都具有重要意义。在研究应用主概率权模拟模型产生自然水系网的基础上，提出了元素在水系网中运移的计算方法，结合所模拟出的水系网，具体分析了元素在其中的迁移、扩散情况，给出了正问题和反问题的计算结果。结果表明，正、反问题的求解具有一致性，方法是有效、可行的。  相似文献   

Seismic scattering at the top of the mantle Transition Zone     

H. Thybo  L. Nielsen 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2003,216(3):259-269

We document strong seismic scattering from around the top of the mantle Transition Zone in all available high resolution explosion seismic profiles from Siberia and North America. This seismic reflectivity from around the 410 km discontinuity indicates the presence of pronounced heterogeneity in the depth interval between 320 and 450 km in the Earth’s mantle. We model the seismic observations by heterogeneity in the form of random seismic scatterers with typical scale lengths of kilometre size (10-40 km by 2-10 km) in a 100-140 km thick depth interval. The observed heterogeneity may be explained by changes in the depths to the α-β-γ spinel transformations caused by an unexpectedly high iron content at the top of the mantle Transition Zone. The phase transformation of pyroxenes into the garnet mineral majorite probably also contributes to the reflectivity, mainly below a depth of 400 km, whereas we find it unlikely that the presence of water or partial melt is the main cause of the observed strong seismic reflectivity. Subducted oceanic slabs that equilibrated at the top of the Transition Zone may also contribute to the observed reflectivity. If this is the main cause of the reflectivity, a substantial amount of young oceanic lithosphere has been subducted under Siberia and North America during their geologic evolution. Subducted slabs may have initiated metamorphic reactions in the original mantle rocks.  相似文献   

答“对秦岭奥长环斑花岗岩质疑”   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

卢欣样王晓霞  肖庆辉尉向东 董有 《地质论评》2003,49(2):146-154

环斑花岗岩是一种特殊结构的花岗岩类，并且多数产在元古宙克拉通中。笔者曾报道了在秦岭造山带中发育有印支期具有环斑结构的花岗质岩石。“对秦岭奥长环斑花岗岩质疑”一文认为它们不是环斑花岗岩，并引用Ramo的图表来说明自己的观点。本文将从以下几方面进行讨论：秦岭环斑花岗岩的研究历史；环斑花岗岩的定义；世界上环斑花岗岩的成因类型；秦岭环斑花岗岩的副矿物及铁镁含量和环斑钾长石特征；秦岭环斑花岗岩与基性岩共存等。本文还论证了秦岭环斑花岗岩不同于元古宙非造山环斑花岗岩，而是一种造山型的环斑花岗岩，其形成于后造山环境，是挤压（造山）向拉张（稳定）转折时期的产物。最后对研究秦岭环斑花岗岩的几个理论问题进行了探讨。  相似文献   

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

G. Zhou  T. Esaki  Y. Mitani  M. Xie  J. Mori 《Engineering Geology》2003,68(3-4):373-386

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.  相似文献   

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Adnan A. Basma  Samer A. Barakat  Maher T. Omar 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2003,21(3):225-242

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献