PRINCIPES FONDAMENTAUX DE LA THEORIE DU MOUVEMENT DES EAUX SOUTERRAINES     

A. N. BELANY 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):14-21

ABSTRACT

In southeastern Arizona, almost all summer rainfall results from widely-scattered high-intensity afternoon or evening thunderstorms of limited areal extent. For eleven years of record on the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Tombstone, Arizona, about 70 percent of the annual rainfall of 11 1/2 inches and over 95 percent of the annual runoff occurred in July, August, and early September. In contrast, about 5 percent of the rainfall occurred in the previous 3 months, and about 25 percent in the remaining 6 1/2 months.

Therefore, summer rainfall, although highly variable, represented the most dependable source of water to the Walnut Gulch watershed. On the average, significant rainfall was recorded on some part of the watershed on 40 percent of the days in the critical July-August period. The maximum frequency was 3 out of every 4 days in 1955, and the minimum 3 out of every 10 days in 1960.

The wettest year was 1955, with a continuous rainy period of 47 days; whereas, the driest was 1960, with the longest rainy period lasting only 5 days. The longest summer drought during the period of record occurred in 1962, when no rain fell for 17 days in August, following a 14-day rainy period in late July.

As yet, there are not enough data to determine reliable expectancies for summer rainy or drought periods.  相似文献   

Biased estimation: a simple framework for inversion and uncertainty analysis with prior information   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Max A. Meju 《Geophysical Journal International》1994,119(2):521-528

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Drought forecasting: Methodological topics from a systems perspective     

R. Krzysztofowicz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(4):267-279

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Rainfall estimation using raingages and radar — A Bayesian approach: 1. Derivation of estimators     

D. -J. Seo  J. A. Smith 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1991,5(1):17-29

Procedures for estimating rainfall from radar and raingage observations are constructed in a Bayesian framework. Given that the number of raingage measurements is typically very small, mean and variance of gage rainfall are treated as uncertain parameters. Under the assumption that log gage rainfall and log radar rainfall are jointly multivariate normal, the estimation problem is equivalent to lognormal co-kriging with uncertain mean and variance of the gage rainfall field.The posterior distribution is obtained under the assumption that the prior for the mean and inverse of the variance of log gage rainfall is normal-gamma 2. Estimate and estimation variance do not have closed-form expressions, but can be easily evaluated by numerically integrating two single integrals. To reduce computational burden associated with evaluating sufficient statistics for the likelihood function, an approximate form of parameter updating is given. Also, as a further approximation, the parameters are updated using raingage measurements only, yielding closed-form expressions for estimate and estimation variance in the Gaussian domain.With a reduction in the number of radar rainfall data in constructing covariance matrices, computational requirements for the estimation procedures are not significantly greater than those for simple co-kriging. Given their generality, the estimation procedures constructed in this work are considered to be applicable in various estimation problems involving an undersampled main variable and a densely sampled auxiliary variable.  相似文献   

电子探针快速自动定量矿石中矿物的方法研究     

欧阳菲  潘法忠 《岩矿测试》1991,10(4):267-270

利用电子探针、能谱仪、扫描电镜和计算机等一整套仪器,对组成矿石样品中有用矿物的含量进行定量统计。既能准确识别矿物又能精确统计各矿物在矿样中的面积百分含量(面积法)。  相似文献   

Binomial model on seismic risk analysis     

王健  时振梁 《地震学报(英文版)》1994,(Z1)

ＢｉｎｏｍｉａｌｍｏｄｅｌｏｎｓｅｉｓｍｉｃｒｉｓｋａｎａｌｙｓｉｓＪｉａｎＷＡＮＧ（王健）ａｎｄＺｈｅｎ－ＬｉａｎｇＳＨＩ（时振梁）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃｓ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｉｓｍｏｌｏｇｉｃａｌＢｕｒｅａｕ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１００...  相似文献   

Probabilistic Assessment of Temperature in the Euganean Geothermal Area (Veneto Region, NE Italy)     

P. Fabbri 《Mathematical Geology》2001,33(6):745-760

In the geothermal Euganean area (Veneto region, NE Italy) water temperatures range from 60 to 86°C. The aquifer considered is rocky and the production wells in this study have a depth ranging from 300 to 500 m. For exploitation purposes, it is important to identify zones with a high probability that the temperature is more than 80°C and zones with a high probability that the temperature is less than 70°C. First, variographic analysis was conducted from 186 temperature data of thermal ground waters. This analysis gave results that are consistent with the main regional tectonic structure, the NW-SE trending Schio-Vicenza fault system. Then indicator variograms of the second, fifth, and eighth decile were compared to identify the spatial continuity at different thresholds. The unacceptability of a multigaussian hypothesis of the random function and the necessity to know the cumulative distribution function in any location, suggested the use of a nonparametric geostatistical procedure such as indicator kriging. Thus, indicator variograms at the cutoffs of 65, 70, 73, 75, 78, 80, 82, and 84°C were analyzed, fitted, and used during the indicator kriging procedure. Finally, probability maps were derived from postprocessing indicator kriging results. These maps identified scarcely exploited areas with a high probability of the temperature being higher than 80°C, between 70 and 80°C and areas with high probability of the temperature being below 70°C.  相似文献   

基于未确知信息的环状河网水质数学模型研究          下载免费PDF全文

汪守东  沈永明  姜恒志 《水科学进展》2007,18(6):871-878

以圣维南方程组、对流扩散方程以及未确知信息理论为基础,建立了环状河网一维水动力与未确知水质数学模型。采用Preissman四点隐格式法对圣维南方程组进行离散和采用显式差分对对流扩散方程进行离散,对河网水动力与水质分别进行了合理的编码,并考虑了泵闸等控制工程、降雨径流的影响,采用河网的三级解法编制河网非恒定流的计算程序求解各断面的水位Z和流量Q,实现了水动力和水质两模块之间的数据连接,且对微分形式的水质模型运用未确知数学理论进行了含有两个未确知参数的水质计算,从而不仅能获得污染物浓度区间值,还能得到相应的可信度。实例研究表明,建立的河网水动力模型和未确知信息的水质模型是可靠的,可以用于河网水质治理工程的数值模拟研究和水环境评估。  相似文献   

火焰原子吸收光谱法测定铜精矿中银含量的测量不确定度评定   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王巧玲 于明朱明达  耿刚强宁国东 《岩矿测试》2007,26(6):477-480

采用《测量不确定度评定与表示指南》，以火焰原子吸收光谱法测定铜精矿中的银含量为例，对测量结果进行不确定度评定。分析了不确定度的重要来源，包括称样质量、标准工作溶液、工作曲线拟合、试液定容体积及测量重复性等引入的不确定度分量组成。对各不确定度分量进行分析计算，求得标准不确定度为1．56，扩展不确定度为3．12。  相似文献   

Controlled Fracture Growth by Blasting While Protecting Damages to Remaining Rock     

S. S. Rathore  S. Bhandari 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2007,40(3):317-326

Summary. Conventional blasting causes cracks and fractures in the rock. Controlled blasting techniques produce the macrocrack in a desired direction and eliminate microcrack in the remaining rock. Macrocrack development in desired direction is required for extraction of dimensional stone and at the same time there is need to reduce microcrack development in the block and remaining rock. To achieve the objectives, experimental work in the quarries was carried out for separating marble block from the in situ strata as practiced in some of the Indian mines by using detonating cord of 30 to 50 g/m by varying hole spacing, hole diameter, air cushioning, water and sand filled blast-holes. Blasthole notching was carried out. Further, tests were carried out by using various liners inside the blasthole to determine the damages in the extracted block and remaining rock. The designed experimental work was undertaken and rock samples were collected by coring before and after blasting for quantification of microcrack in the rock. P-wave velocity and microscopic studies were conducted for quantification of damages. Experiments were also conducted at laboratory scale for the quantification of damages in single circular and notched holes with variation of stemming and liners. The P-wave velocity close to hole always reduces after blast and in case of NG-based charge and detonating cord it decreases up to 1/3^rd. With PVC pipe and paper tube liners decrease is negligible. Thus, by using notched hole with paper tube, decrease in P-wave is minimum indicating least damage.  相似文献