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51.
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利用Logisitic曲线模型和扩展支撑模型对居民可支配收入预测和单项消费预测,以河北省居民的收入及其消费支出为实例,研究了城镇居民和农民的可支配收入分配和单项边际消费倾向,合理建立了预测模型,并理论计算了1999~2003年的通信消费方面的边际消费倾向、预测了2004~2008年通信消费情况。最后,根据预测结果对通信网络建设提出了一些有价值的建议。  相似文献   
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We consider sulphur depletion in dense molecular clouds, and suggest hydrated sulphuric acid, H2SO4 ·  n H2O, as a component of interstellar dust in icy mantles. We discuss the formation of hydrated sulphuric acid in collapsing clouds and its instability in heated regions in terms of the existing hot core models and observations. We also show that some features of the infrared spectrum of hydrated sulphuric acid have correspondence in the observed spectra of young stellar objects.  相似文献   
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We present a new general scheme for calculating the structure and dynamics of radiation-pressure-driven photoionized flows. The new method goes one step beyond the Sobolev approximation. It involves a numerical solution of the radiative transfer in absorption lines, including the effects of differential expansion and line interactions such as line locking and blanketing. We also present a new scheme for calculating the radiation pressure due to trapped line photons in finite, differentially expanding flows. We compare our results for the radiation pressure force with those obtained using the Sobolev approximation and show the limitations of the latter. In particular, we demonstrate that the Sobolev method gives a poor approximation near discontinuity surfaces and its neglect of line blanketing can lead to erroneous results in high-velocity flows. We combine the newly calculated radiation pressure force with self-consistent photoionization and thermal calculations to study the dynamics and spectral features of broad absorption-line flows and highly ionized gas flows in active galactic nuclei (AGN). A comparison with Sobolev-type calculations shows that the latter overestimates the terminal velocity of the flow and, conversely, underestimates its opacity. We also show that line locking on broad emission lines can have a significant effect on the dynamics and spectral features of AGN flows.  相似文献   
56.
It is very important to establish cooperative mechanism to guarantee all members to develop their e-conomies in the Yellow Sea Rim. In this paper, the development strategies ofshipplng centers and transportation networkare discussed based on economic giobalization tendency. The results argue that a united transportation network should bebuilt in order to promote the economic competition of Northeast Asia in the world. As a key component of the economiccooperation, a hierarchical shipping centers network should be established with Hong Kong, Shanghai, Pusan, Koho,and Tokyo as cores. The authorities of China, Japan, R. O. Korea and D. P. B. Korea should make more efforts tobuild a set of cooperation institutions based on raising the transportation efficiency.  相似文献   
57.
The exploitation and utilization of the tour resources of tournament athletics, including skiling, boat sail-ing, archery, ice engraving, snow engraving, has become a new trend of the development of Chinese tourism. Due tothe unique cold climate and superior geographic location, Harbin is a promising city for developing tour resources of tourna-ment athletics. Based on the analysis of the superiority and peculiarity of Harbin, the speculation on development of tour resources of tournament athletics in Harbin is proposed as follows : 1 ) Harbin should develop its special tour resources of tournament athletics associated with needs of market; 2) Harbin should take the advantages of rich resources and devel-op ice and snow entertainment in winter and travel for sight-seeing and spending summer;, 3) the adjustment of the layoutof ice and snow resources should be based on the idea of taking Harbin as the center and all-side opening at the largescale in the way of radiation; 4) tourism should be developed by the combined efforts of various departments to make feasi-ble plan, and the organizers should pay much attention to ensuring the safetv of tourists.  相似文献   
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Empirical criteria have been used successfully to design filters of most embankment large dam projects throughout the world. However, these empirical rules are only applicable to a particular range of soils tested in laboratory and do not take into account the variability of the base material and filter particle sizes. In addition, it is widely accepted that the safety of fill dams is mainly dependent on the reliability of their filter performance. The work herein presented consists in a new general method for assessing the probability of fulfilling any empirical filter design criteria accounting for base and filter heterogeneity by means of first‐order reliability methods (FORM), so that reliability indexes and probabilities of fulfilling any particular criteria are obtained. This method will allow engineers to estimate the safety of existing filters in terms of probability of fulfilling their design criteria and might also be used as a decision tool on sampling needs and material size tolerances during construction. In addition, sensitivity analysis makes possible to analyse how reliabilities are influenced by different sources of input data. Finally, in case of a portfolio risk assessment, this method will allow engineers to compare the safety of several existing dams in order to prioritize safety investments and it is expected to be a very useful tool to evaluate probabilities of failure due to internal erosion. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
60.
If supermassive black holes in centres of galaxies form by merging of black hole remnants of massive Population III stars, then there should be a few black holes of mass one or two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the central ones, orbiting around the centre of a typical galaxy. These black holes constitute a weak perturbation in the gravitational potential, which can generate wave phenomena in gas within a disc close to the centre of the galaxy. Here, we show that a single orbiting black hole generates a three-arm spiral pattern in the central gaseous disc. The density excess in the spiral arms in the disc reaches values of 3–12 per cent when the orbiting black hole is about 10 times less massive than the central black hole. Therefore, the observed density pattern in gas can be used as a signature in detecting the most massive orbiting black holes.  相似文献   
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