Whose forecast will be verified in 2025: Malthus’ or Condorcet’s?     

Arie S. Issar 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(2):419-422

  相似文献   

上海城市功能的转型:从全球生产系统角度的透视     

宁越敏  李健 《世界地理研究》2007,16(4):47-54

本文首先回顾了价值链与全球生产系统的研究进展，结合跨国公司最新发展趋势对全球生产系统特征进行了总结；其次以改革开放以来上海对外贸易结构的改变，描述了90年代以来上海在全球生产系统分工中的变化，认为出口产品结构的转型并没有真正改变上海在国际劳动分工中处于低端环节的地位；最后就上海建设世界城市的差距与优势进行了总结，提出全球化发展的外部力量和地方化响应的内部力量将是上海发展世界城市的两个重要驱动力。  相似文献   

全球城市理论与中国的国际城市建设   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吕拉昌 《地理科学》2007,27(4):449-456

全球城市是多因素作用的结果,研究范式由20世纪70年代的马克思主义政治经济学向全球与地区相互作用的范式转换。全球城市体系的划分从单一指标向经济与文化结合的多指标方向发展。但如何选取指标,如何进行指标的测量,如何确定各指标的权重分配以及如何采集城市间相互作用的数据与资料,都是全球城市研究要面对的重要问题。中国的全球城市建设要从全球城市体系的等级、位序规律出发,根据社会经济发展的实际,要有步骤、有目标、分阶段,稳步推进,逐步提升城市发展的层次,促进城市国际化的步伐,建设中国的国际城市。  相似文献   

Simulation of the dissolution of weathered versus unweathered limestone in carbonic acid solutions of varying strength     

M. J. Thornbush  H. A. Viles 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(6):841-852

A simulation was undertaken within a climatic chamber to investigate limestone dissolution under varied carbonic acid (H₂CO₃) strengths as a possible analogue for future increases in atmospheric CO₂ arising from global warming. Twenty‐eight samples cut from a block of Bath (Box Hill) limestone from Somerville College, Oxford, which had been removed during restoration after 150 years in an urban environment, were weighed and placed in closed bottles of thin plastic containing varying concentrations of H₂CO₃. Half of the stone samples were derived from exposed surfaces of the stone block (weathered) while the others were obtained from the centre of the block on unexposed surfaces (unweathered). The purpose of this was to compare dissolution of previously weathered versus unweathered surfaces in strong (pH 4·73) versus weak (pH 6·43) solutions of H₂CO₃. A temperature of c. 19 °C was maintained within the chamber representing a plausible future temperature in Oxford for the year 2200 given current warming scenarios. The simulation lasted 25 days with a few stone samples being removed midway. Stone samples show reduced weight in all cases but one. There was greater dissolution of stone samples in a strong H₂CO₃ solution as conveyed by higher concentrations of total hardness and Ca²⁺ in the water samples as well as enhanced microscopic dissolution features identified using SEM. The simulation confirms that enhanced atmospheric CO₂ under global warming, given adequate moisture, will accelerate dissolution rates particularly of newly replaced limestone building stones. However, previously weathered surfaces, such as those on historical stone exposed for a century or more, appear to be less susceptible to the effects of such increased rainfall acidity. Conservation techniques which remove weathered surfaces, such as stone cleaning, may accelerate future decay of historical limestone structures by increasing their susceptibility to dissolution. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

On Invisible Trade Relations between Mesopotamian Cities during the Third Millennium B.C.     

Audrey Bossuyt  Laurence Broze  Victor Ginsburgh 《The Professional geographer》2001,53(3):374-383

The idea that the emergence of writing was necessity due to the increase in both the number of economic transactions and political complexity has been recently emphasized by Matthews, who also underlines that writing acted as a feedback in enabling and encouraging the growth of ever more complex modes of exchange. The intertwinement of trade and writing suggests that clay tablets left by the civilizations from the third millennium B.C. in Mesopotamia, where writing was invented, may be considered as traces of trade links and transactions between cities. We estimate a gravity model based on clay tablets, as if they represented trade flows. The parameters lead us to conclude that Mesopotamia formed a strongly integrated market.  相似文献   

1995年世界气候概况     

王丽华  李晓燕 《气象》1996,22(4):24-26

１９９５年，世界气候普遍偏暖。欧亚大陆大部、北美大陆中部、南美大陆中部、非洲西北部的年平均气温大多偏高１－２℃，其中俄罗斯大部、美国西南部显著偏高，部分地区偏高４℃，北半球中高纬度地区冬暖非常显著。由于北半球中纬度地区，许多测站气温高达３５－４０℃，为近几十年乃至百年一遇。年内，全球许多地区旱涝频繁，诸如年初欧洲的暴风雪与美国加利福尼亚洲的特大洪水及夏季朝鲜、与中南半岛的大水灾、加勒比海的飓风等危  相似文献   

Holocene lake-level fluctuations and beach-ridge development along the northern shore of Lake Michigan, USA     

William H. Petty  Paul A. Delcourt  Hazel R. Delcourt 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,15(2):147-169

Geomorphology of a beach-ridge complex and adjacent lake basins along the northern shore of Lake Michigan records fluctuations in the level of Lake Michigan for the last 8000 to 10 000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. (radiocarbon years Before Present). A storm berm at 204.7–206 m (671.6–675.9 ft) exposed in a sandpit provides evidence of a pre-Chippewa Low lake level that is correlated with dropping water levels of Glacial Lake Algonquin (c. 10 300–10 100 ¹⁴C yr B.P.). Radiocarbon dates from organic material exposed in a river cutbank and basal sediments from Elbow Lake, Mackinac Co., Michigan, indicate a maximum age of a highstand of Lake Michigan at 6900 ¹⁴C yr B.P., which reached as high as 196.7 m (645 ft), during the early-Nipissing transgression of Lake Michigan. Basal radiocarbon dates from beach swales and a second lake site (Beaverhouse Lake, Mackinac Co.) provide geomorphic evidence for a subsequent highstand which reached 192.6 m (632 ft) at 5390±70 ¹⁴C yr B.P.Basal radiocarbon dates from a transect of sediment cores, along with tree-ring data, and General Land Office Surveyor notes of a shipwreck, c. A.D. 1846, reveal a late-Holocene rate for isostatic rebound of 22.6 cm/100 radiocarbon years (0.74 ft/100 radiocarbon years) for the northern shore of Lake Michigan, relative to the Lake Michigan-Lake Huron outlet at Port Huron, Michigan. Changes in sediment stratigraphy, inter-ridge distance, and sediment accumulation rates document a mid- to late-Holocene retreat of the shoreline due to isostatic rebound. This regression sequence was punctuated by brief, periodic highstands, resulting in progressive development over the past 5400 ¹⁴C yr of 75 pairs of dune ridges and swales each formed over an interval of approximately 72 years. Times of lake-level fluctuation were identified at 3900, 3200, and 1000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. based on changes in inter-ridge spacing, shifts in the course of Millecoquins River, and reorientation of beach-ridge lineation. Soil type, dune development, and selected pollen data provide supporting evidence for this chronology. Late-Holocene beach-ridge development and lake-level fluctuations are related to a retreat of the dominant Pacific airmass and the convergence of the Arctic and Tropical airmasses resulting in predominantly meridional rather than zonal air flow across the Great Lakes region.This is the 13th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.  相似文献   

世界早期历史地震史料的比较研究(待续)     

郭履灿  高建国  阎维彰 《山西地震》1992,(2)

通过对各国地震最早记载及其背景性证据的分析;用时间差分序列的双对数法,进行了地震记载资料丰富程度的探讨;研究了3700年前的全球地震活跃期;给出了公元前2221年至公元1900年105个国家(地区)的资料。  相似文献   

Is the ocean floor a fractal?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ute C. Herzfeld  Isaac I. Kim  John A. Orcutt 《Mathematical Geology》1995,27(3):421-462

The topographic structure of the ocean bottom is investigated at different scales of resolution to answer the question: Can the seafloor be described as a fractal process? Methods from geostatistics, the theory of regionalized variables, are used to analyze the spatial structure of the ocean floor at different scales of resolution. The key to the analysis is the variogram criterion: Self-similarity of a stochastic process implies self-similarity of its variogram. The criterion is derived and proved here: it also is valid for special cases of self-affinity (in a sense adequate for topography). It has been proposed that seafloor topography can be simulated as a fractal (an object of Hausdorff dimension strictly larger than its topological dimension), having scaling properties (self-similarity or self-affinity). The objective of this study is to compare the implications of these concepts with observations of the seafloor. The analyses are based on SEABEAM bathymetric data from the East Pacific Rise at 13°N/104°W and at 9°N/104°W and use tracks that run both across the ridge crest and along the ridge flank. In the geostatistical evaluation, the data are considered as a stochastic process. The spatial continuity of this process is described by variograms that are calculated for different scales and directions. Applications of the variogram criterion to scale-dependent variogram models yields the following results: Although the seafloor may be a fractal in the sense of the definition involving the Hausdorff dimension, it is not self-similar, nor self-affine (in the given sense). Mathematical models of scale-dependent spatial structures are presented, and their relationship to geologic processes such as ridge evolution, crust formation, and sedimentation is discussed.  相似文献   

世界工程地质学的新潮流     

王思敬 《水文地质工程地质》1993,20(1):2-4

本文论述近几年国际国内工程地质大会研究的重点主题及其变化以及最近(今年8月在日本东京)召开的29届国际地质大会讨论的环境问题,从而反映了世界工程地质学研究的趋势。  相似文献