Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL）   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6  

吴志伟  李建平 《大气科学进展》2008,25(3):387-394

Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon （A-AM） precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation （IAV）, and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979-2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming （cooling） in the Nifio 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO.
We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude： （1） successful reproduction of the E1 Nifio-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and E1 Nifio forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; （2） more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Nifio 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; （3） the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.  相似文献   

台风“莫拉菲”对不同边界层方案的敏感性数值模拟   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

赖文锋  刘阳  麦健华  林文实 《广东气象》2010,32(6):10-14

利用WRF中尺度模式,在不同边界层方案下对2009年第6号台风"莫拉菲"登陆前后的主要过程进行了数值模拟,分析了边界层参数化方案对台风的大环境场、路径、强度和累积降水的影响。并通过对边界层过程中的感热通量和潜热通量进行分析,表明台风强度和累积降水主要是由水汽凝结潜热释放造成的。MRF方案为非局地K理论方案,YSU方案是新一代的MRF方案,增加了显式处理的夹卷层过程,而MYJ方案是Mellor-Yamada2.5级湍流闭合方案,主要是使用TKE闭合方法。模拟结果表明,YSU方案比MRF方案在模拟结果中有明显的改善,MYJ方案出现在模拟台风强度过强的情况。综合来说,YSU方案的模拟结果较好。  相似文献   

欢迎订阅《气象科技》、《气象科技合作动态》     

《气象科技》2010,(Z1):82-82

<正>《气象科技》由中国气象科学研究院、北京市气象局、中国气象局气象探测中心、国家卫星气象中心及国家气象信息中心联合主办。报道大气科学和相关科学各领域新理论、新方法和新技术,也刊载反映大气科学  相似文献   

征稿简则     

《气象与环境科学》2010,33(1):94-94

《气象与环境科学》是由河南省气象局主办,郑州大学、河南大学、河南农业大学等单位协办的自然科学学术期刊,发表有关大气科学、应用气象、生态与环境科学等领域的具有创新性和应用性的研究成果和有独到见解的综述性论文。本刊旨在促进大气科学、应用气象及生态与环境科学的繁荣,发挥其在社会发展、经济建设、防灾减灾及人民生活中的作用,为气象、农业、环保、水利、林业、民航等部门及相关高校搭建一个高层次的学术交流平台。欢迎国内外专家、学者,气象及农业、环保、水利、林业、民航等部门专业技术人员,高等院校师生赐稿。  相似文献   

An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

钱维宏  丁婷  胡豪然  林祥  秦爱民 《大气科学进展》2009,26(4):630-641

Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4--5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.  相似文献   

《高原气象》征稿简则          下载免费PDF全文

《高原气象》2009,28(2)

  相似文献   

《大气科学学报》征稿简则     

《南京气象学院学报》2009,32(3):466-466

一、《大气科学学报》由原《南京气象学院学报》全新改版而来,由南京信息工程大学主办。本刊遵循国家有关新闻出版法规,贯彻“双百”方针,以繁荣我国气象科学事业,促进国内外学术交流为宗旨。本刊主要刊登大气科学及相关学科的理论和应用研究论文,国内外研究进展综述等。  相似文献   

《南京气象学院学报》征稿简则     

《南京气象学院学报》2009,32(2):338-338

一、《南京气象学院学报》是南京信息工程大学主办的学术类期刊。本刊坚持四项基本原则,贯彻“双百”方针,以繁荣我国气象科学事业,促进国内外学术交流为宗旨。本刊主要刊登大气科学、环境科学及相关基础学科的理论和应用研究论文,新技术研制,国内外研究进展综述等。本刊为双月刊,欢迎国内外专家、从事大气科学及相关学科研究的科研人员及大专院校有关专业的师生投稿。  相似文献   

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters          下载免费PDF全文

《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,(3):I0002-I0002

The author warrants that his/her contribution is original, has not been published previously, and is not under consideration for publication in any other refereed journals. And he/she has full power to make this grant. All authors sign for and accept responsibility for releasing this material.  相似文献   

干旱半干旱区太阳辐射特征          下载免费PDF全文

HU Bo  WANG Yue-Si  LIU Guang-Ren 《大气和海洋科学快报》2009,2(3):183-187

Climatic characteristics of broadband solar radiation （Rs） in Chinese arid and semi-arid areas are reported in this study. The annual average daily Rs in the arid and semi-arid areas is 16.3 ±5.77 and 15.3 ± 5.16 MJ m^-2 d^-1, respectively. The highest value （17.2 ± 5.84 MJ m^-2 d^-1） appears in an arid area at Linze. The lowest value appears in the semi-arid area of Ansai. Pronounced seasonal variation of Rs is observed with the highest value in summer and the lowest in winter. The clearness index showed similar seasonal pattern at most sites, with the minimum observed in the summer and the highest values in winter at both arid and semi-arid areas. The seasonal variation of the ratio of Rs to its extraterrestrial value Kt in the arid area is more significant than that observed in the semi-arid region, and it is caused by the different range of variation of water vapor between arid and semi-arid areas. The seasonal fluctuations in Rs and Kt are mainly controlled by the water vapor content in these areas. The aerosol particles have significant influence on Rs and Kt at stations with higher aerosol burden.  相似文献