中国20年一遇气温和降水极值变化的高分辨率模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴佳  高学杰  石英 《气候变化研究进展》2012,8(4):243-249

基于25 km高分辨率区域气候模式（RegCM3）嵌套MIROC3.2_hires全球气候模式结果,进行IPCC SRES A1B情景下21世纪气候变化的模拟,分析中国区域未来气温和降水极值重现期的变化。首先检验模式对当代（1981-2000年）极端事件重现期的模拟能力,结果表明,模式能够较好地再现中国地区20年一遇极端事件的基本分布型,但所模拟的数值与观测相比还有一定偏差,特别是在极端降水方面。21世纪中期（2041-2060年）和末期（2081-2100年）20年一遇的高温极值在整个区域内均将升高,东北地区增幅最大;低温极值将增大,中心位于内蒙古、新疆及青藏高原南麓;降水极值也将普遍增大。气温和降水极值在21世纪末期的增加幅度均比中期要大。在未来全球变暖背景下,中国地区极端高温事件将明显增多,面积增大;极端低温事件将大幅度减少,面积减少;强降水事件也将增多,面积不断扩大。  相似文献   

应用Penman公式对江西省太阳总辐射变化特征的探讨     

孙善磊  周锁铨  宋洁  石建红  顾人颖  黄珏 《气候与环境研究》2011,16(5):629-640

利用1961～2000年赣州站、南昌站的年太阳总辐射与相关气象要素资料,结合Penman公式,运用6种计算净长波辐射的方法估算了两站的年太阳总辐射;建立了估算该地区年太阳总辐射的绝对误差权重法（Method of Absolute Errors,MAE）,并给出了适用于江西省的绝对误差权重系数,以此方法计算了江西省其他76站的年太阳总辐射;并分析了该地区年太阳总辐射的时空分布特征及其变化趋势,发现：（1）1961~2000年间,江西省大部分地区太阳总辐射在3800～4400 MJ·m-2·a-1;南部偏东地区较大,且存在有一大值中心;西部地区为江西省太阳总辐射最小的地区;（2）40年间,江西省年太阳总辐射呈明显下降趋势,每10年减少143.70 MJ·m-2。78站中,有63站的太阳总辐射的下降趋势通过了α=0.05的显著性检验,8站表现为上升趋势;江西省北部及南部地区太阳总辐射下降较大;中部地区下降相对较小,且在鄱阳湖东侧有一低值中心。  相似文献   

离子分布函数的20矩近似在非相干散射谱中的应用   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

薛昆  郭立新  吴健  徐彬  房朝峰 《地球物理学报》2009,52(4):878-886

根据Grad理论,以麦克斯韦分布函数为基,将离子分布函数展成20矩近似的形式,讨论了黏滞张量项与热流项对离子分布函数的影响.在电场比较弱的情况下,沿着E×B和E的方向上,热流矢量项和黏滞张量项是可以分别忽略掉的.离子温度的各向异性特征和分布函数的不对称性是由黏滞项和热流项引起的.利用Sheffield理论计算得到了非相干散射谱,并对13矩近似和20矩近似得到的非相干散射谱进行了对比.在电场比较弱的情况下,这两种近似基本一致,而当电场增强时,热流张量项的贡献变得很明显,温度各向异性的特征加剧.此时与13矩近似相比较,20矩近似能够更加准确地描述以温度各向异性为特性的非麦克斯韦分布等离子体.  相似文献   

芦山7级地震的同震位移估计和震源滑动模型反演尝试   总被引：7，自引：7，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

金明培  汪荣江  屠泓为 《地球物理学报》2014,57(1):129-137

利用自动经验基线校正方法,分析2013年4月20日芦山M_S7.0级地震13个近场强震动台的观测资料,以估算同震位移场分布,并据此反演了震源滑动模型.经与GPS结果比较,两种不同方法给出的芦山7级地震的水平近场同震位移场幅度都不超过cm级,均显示为典型的逆冲型地震（兼有少量左旋走滑错动）.强震最大水平和垂直永久位移分别为4.9 cm和4.4 cm,分别出现在51YAM台和51QLY 台.两种资料反演的震源滑动模型虽显示多事件特征,但主要滑动均集中在第一次事件,即初始滑动点两侧的走向长约30 km、倾向长约25 km的相对集中的较小范围内,强震和GPS模型的最大滑动量分别为1.14 m和1.09 m,较为一致.其余子事件滑动量小且分布零散,不能排除其数值效应的因素.反演矩震级均在M_w6.7左右,地表破裂应该不明显.文章还讨论了目前在我国利用近场强震动记录估计M_w6~7级地震同震位移场存在的困难和问题,为今后类似工作提供参考.  相似文献   

Crop cover reconstruction and its effects on sediment retention in the Tibetan Plateau for 1900–2000     

Shicheng Li  Zhaofeng Wang  Yili Zhang 《地理学报(英文版)》2017,27(7):786-800

Geographically explicit historical land use and land cover datasets are increasingly required in studies of climatic and ecological effects of human activities. In this study, using historical population data as a proxy, the provincial cropland areas of Qinghai province and the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR) for 1900, 1930, and 1950 were estimated. The cropland areas of Qinghai and the TAR for 1980 and 2000 were obtained from published statistical data with revisions. Using a land suitability for cultivation model, the provincial cropland areas for the 20th century were converted into crop cover datasets with a resolution of 1 × 1 km. Finally, changes of sediment retention due to crop cover change were assessed using the sediment delivery ratio module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (In- VEST) model (version 3.3.1). There were two main results. (1) For 1950–1980 the fractional cropland area increased from 0.32% to 0.48% and land use clearly intensified in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), especially in the Yellow River–Huangshui River Valley (YHRV) and the midstream of the Yarlung Zangbo River and its two tributaries valley (YRTT). For other periods of the 20th century, stability was the main trend. (2) For 1950–1980, sediment export increased rapidly in the Minhe autonomous county of the YHRV, and in the Nianchu River and Lhasa River basins of the YRTT, which means that sediment retention clearly decreased in these regions over this period. The results of this assessment provide scientific support for conservation planning, development planning, or restoration activities.  相似文献   

非节肢类海洋无脊椎动物中蜕皮甾体及其功能研究     

李娟  张守都  沙婧婧  刘一霆  张琦 《海洋通报》2020,39(2):152-159

非节肢类海洋无脊椎动物的许多物种中都发现有蜕皮甾体的存在,且存在形式多样,但目前对其确切来源、生物体内的合成或加工途径仍缺乏足够的了解,在生长发育、生殖活动及其他生理功能中如何发挥作用也需要进一步研究。分子生物学和全基因组测序的发展为蜕皮甾体合成途径重要酶类及蜕皮激素信号传导所需受体研究提供了更多的信息,以帮助科学家逐步阐明相关机制。  相似文献   

Dynamo generation of a magnetic field by decaying Lehnert waves in a highly conducting plasma     

Krzysztof A. Mizerski  H. K. Moffatt 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2018,112(2):165-174

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Ab initio investigations of the charge transport properties of endohedral M@C₂₀ (M= Na and K) metallofullerenes     

安义鹏  杨传路  王美山  马晓光  王德华 《海洋学报(英文版)》2010,29(11)

Using density functional theory and quantum transport calculations based on nonequilibum Green's function formalism, we investigate the charge transport properties of endohedral M@C₂₀ (M= Na and K) metallofullerenes. Our results show that the conductance of C₂₀ fullerene can be obviously improved by insertion of alkali atom at its centre. Both linear and nonlinear sections are found on the I-V curves of the Au-M@C₂₀-Au two-probe systems. The novel negative differential resistance behaviour is also observed in Na@C₂₀ molecule but not in K@C₂₀.  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of changes in rainfall event characteristics on TSS loads in urban runoff          下载免费PDF全文

Matthias Borris  Maria Viklander  Anna‐Maria Gustafsson  Jiri Marsalek 《水文研究》2014,28(4):1787-1796

The effect of changes in rainfall event characteristics on urban stormwater quality, which was described by total suspended solids (TSS), was studied by means of computer simulations conducted with the Storm Water Management Model for a climate change scenario for northern Sweden. The simulation results showed that TSS event loads depended mainly on rainfall depth and intensity, but not on antecedent conditions. Storms with low‐to‐intermediate depths and intensities showed the highest sensitivity to changes in rainfall input, both for percentage and absolute changes in TSS wash‐off loads, which was explained by the contribution of pervious areas and supply limitations. This has significant implications for stormwater management, because those relatively frequent events generally carry a high percentage of the annual pollutant load. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A New Method for Determining Fluid Compositions in the H20-NaCl-CaCl2 System with Cryogenic Raman Spectroscopy     

CHI Guoxiang  CHU Haixi  Ryan SCOTT  CHOU I-Ming 《《地质学报》英文版》2014,88(4):1169-1182

Raman peaks of various hydrates in the H20-NaCl-CaCl2 system have been previously identified, but a quantitative relationship between the Raman peaks and XNaCl （i.e.,NaCl/ （NaCl＋CaCl2）） has not been established, mainly due to the difficulty to freeze the solutions. This problem was solved by adding alumina powder to the solutions to facilitate nucleation of crystals. Cryogenic （-185℃） Raman spectroscopic studies of alumina-spiced solutions indicate that XNaCl is linearly correlated with the total peak area fraction of hydrohalite. Capsules of solutions made from silica capillary were prepared to simulate fluid inclusions. Most of these artificial fluid inclusions could not be totally frozen even at temperatures as low as -185℃, and the total peak area fraction of hydrohalite is not correlated linearly with XNaCI. However, the degree of deviation （△XNaCl） from the linear correlation established earlier is related to the amount of residual solution, which is reflected by the ratio （r） of the baseline ＂bump＂ area, resulting from the interstitial unfrozen brine near 3435 cm^-1, and the total hydrate peak area between 3350 and 3600 cm^-1. A linear correlation between △XNaCl and r is established to estimate XNaCl from cryogenic Raman spectroscopic analysis for fluid inclusions.  相似文献