亚洲中部干旱半干旱区近100年来的气温变化研究   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：5  

王劲松  陈发虎  张强  靳立亚  李静  金明  陈建徽 《高原气象》2008,27(5)

利用亚洲中部干旱半干旱区1961—2003年共计69个站的气温实测资料,并通过EOF展开的延长插补方法,将研究区的气温序列延长到1901年,进而分析了这一区域近100年来的气温变化。研究表明,该区域气温的一致性变化占主导地位,同时存在东部季风区、中亚、蒙古高原和塔里木干旱区等4个主要温度变化分区,均表现出显著的增暖趋势,其代表站近100年来线性拟合的增温率分别为0.19,0.16,0.23和0.15℃/10a,研究区平均增温率为0.18℃/10a,冬季达0.21℃/10a,远高于北半球、全球和我国的增温率,但与青藏高原增温率相近。除20世纪10年代和50年代外,研究区气温变化主要取决于冬季温度的变化。研究区近100年来的气温变化经历了70年代以前的相对缓慢升温和以后的显著升温过程,且增温率越来越大。亚洲中部干旱半干旱区的气温变化过程与我国东部地区显著不同,没有出现明显的20~40年代暖期,整个升温过程由6次明显的锯齿状的升温-降温变化过程(即20,40,60,80,90年代和本世纪初气温变化过程)构成,升温阶段持续时间较长,幅度较大,而降温阶段时间短,幅度小,但不论升温还是降温过程,其变化幅度均大于我国东部和全球平均。  相似文献   

模糊马尔可夫预测法在空气质量评价中的应用     

方红 《辽宁气象》2008,24(1):60-62

将模糊综合评价及马尔可夫链同时运用到空气质量的评价中,可克服大气环境系统所固有的模糊性及随机性。通过1994—1998年芜湖市大气环境监测数据计算表明：不仅预测结果准确,而且由于应用了模糊数学方法,使得结果较为可信,且整个过程计算简单,是一种较适合的方法。  相似文献   

江苏省四季变化的分析   总被引：17，自引：4，他引：13  

张静  吕军  项瑛  肖卉 《气象科学》2008,28(5):568-572

在全球气候变暖的背景下,近些年江苏省气温明显升高,使得江苏省四季的起止时间和长度发生了明显的改变.本文通过分析多种季节划分方法,根据江苏省的气温分布特点,定义了适用于江苏省的四季划分方法.通过分析四季的变化,结果显示:(1)江苏省四季分明,且南北有明显的差别,就全省常年平均而言,冬季最长,其次是夏季,秋季和春季长度很相近,秋季略短.(2)过去几十年里,江苏省各地区各季节的长度和起止时间都发生了明显的变化,特别是自21世纪以来,这种变化速度明显加快,最主要的变化特点为:春季发生的时段向前移了近10d;夏季明显变长,开始时间提前,结束时间推后;秋季的发生时段整体向后移;冬季明显缩短,特别是结束时间提前.  相似文献   

A critical CAE analysis of the bottom shape of a multi stepped air cavity planing hull     

《Applied Ocean Research》2019

One of the most important aspects, in the ACS and multi stepped hull design, is the choice of the geometrical shape of the cavity and the steps. In this article a complete experimental and numerical campaign on a multi stepped ACS has been carried out, varying the velocity and the air flow rate under the hull. The experimental tests have been conducted in an ITTC Towing Tank allowing to validate the numerical simulations obtained by means of a CFD U-RANSe (Unesteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations) code. The CFD setup is described in detail. From this campaign a critical analysis of the Froude number influence on the air cushion shape has been argued. The authors identified four different behaviours, from low to very high Froude numbers. The use of CFD has allowed to observe quantities of difficult evaluation by means of traditional experimental test, as e.g. the frictional component of the resistance, the airflow path lines and the volume of fraction in transversal and longitudinal sections. The results have been discussed.  相似文献   

不同人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响:以浙江省为例     

于燕  廖礼  崔雪东  陈锋 《气候与环境研究》2017,22(5):519-537

应用大气化学模式WRF-Chem(Weather Research and Forecast-Chemistry),分别选用亚洲排放源清单INTEX-B(Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B)、REASv2.1(Regional Emission inventory in Asia version 2.1)以及全球排放源清单HTAP_v2(Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution version 2),对浙江省2013年12月进行模拟,分别记为IN、RE和HT试验,研究人为源排放清单对大气污染物浓度数值模拟的影响。结果表明,3组试验合理的反映出PM2.5(空气动力学当量直径小于等于2.5μm的颗粒物,即细颗粒物)、PM10(空气动力学当量直径小于等于10μm的颗粒物,即可吸入颗粒物)和NO_2近地面浓度的时空分布特征,相关系数为0.5~0.8,85%以上的模拟值落在观测值的0.5~2倍范围内,但对SO_2近地面浓度模拟较差。IN、RE、HT试验对PM2.5和PM10的模拟偏差均成递减趋势,约为30%、16%和6%,HT试验的模拟值更加接近观测。INTEX-B清单中PM2.5的一次排放与二次气溶胶前提物SO_2均高于REAS与HTAP清单,因此会导致更多的硫酸盐生成,从而进一步增加PM2.5浓度。HTAP_v2清单中较低的NH3排放会抑制硝酸盐的生成,从而有助于降低PM2.5浓度。3个清单的基准年与模拟年的差异对SO_2浓度模拟的准确性影响更大,INTEX-B清单中SO_2排放量明显高于REASv2.1与HTAP_v2清单,尤其在浙北和沿海工业发达地区,导致IN试验模拟的SO_2在这些地区存在明显高估。3组试验模拟的NO_2浓度偏差最小且更为接近(-8%~4%),主要原因是3个清单在浙江省的NOx排放十分一致。从3组试验结果之间的差异程度来看,浙江省范围内PM2.5、PM10、SO_2和NO_2逐日浓度模拟值之间的平均差异程度分别约为14%、15%、51%和16%,最大差异程度分别为69%、78%、137%和132%。月均浓度与逐日浓度的平均差异程度基本一致,但最大差异程度明显更低。总体来看3组试验模拟的PM2.5、PM10与NO_2的差异程度明显低于SO_2。  相似文献   

Where do planes fly past overhead? Determining departure and arrival routes from radar traces     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

This paper questions the main techniques of mapping in the context of aircraft noise in the vicinity of airports, and compares these techniques in terms of their purpose, benefits and limitations. Then the paper describes a method to summarise radar traces of a given air transport departure or arrival route into a median route and its envelope containing 80% of flights. This makes it possible to map global and easy-to-read maps of current air procedures around airports based on actual pathways flown by the aircraft. It also makes it possible to investigate the impact of change in aeronautical procedures on the actual geography of air routes around airports. Such maps complement noise contour maps and offer a good basis for debating aeronautical procedures at airports whose operations expose the population to noise.  相似文献   

Cancer risks from exposure to vehicular air pollution: a household level analysis of intra-ethnic heterogeneity in Miami,Florida     

Jayajit Chakraborty  Timothy W. Collins  Sara E. Grineski 《Urban geography》2017,38(1):112-136

Quantitative environmental justice (EJ) research has relied on aggregated data from census units to determine disproportionate hazard exposure. Additionally, variables typically used to analyze ethnic inequities in exposure (e.g., percent Hispanic) are too broad and assume a degree of homogeneity that may not exist, given the diversity of ethnic minority populations. We address these limitations through a study that utilizes primary household level survey data and cancer risk estimates from the National-Scale Air Toxics Assessment (NATA) to analyze intra-ethnic inequities in exposure to vehicular air pollutants in the Miami metropolitan area, Florida. Our analysis disaggregates the Hispanic category based on five characteristics (language proficiency, U.S. citizenship, nativity, unemployment status, and national origin) and finds that risk burdens are significantly higher for Hispanic respondents who are foreign-born, unemployed, and of Cuban origin. Findings highlight the advantages of downscaling EJ analyses to the household level and considering intra-ethnic heterogeneity in EJ research and policy.  相似文献   

乌鲁木齐市MODIS气溶胶光学厚度与空气质量指数相关性分析     

陈鹏  张青  李悦 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2018,12(2):71-77

利用MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(AOD,Aerosol Optical Depth)产品与同期乌鲁木齐市空气质量指数进行相关性分析,得到二者的相关系数为0.664。对MODIS AOD产品进行垂直和湿度订正后,二者的相关性显著提高,相关系数从0.664提高到0.805。订正后按季节分类统计,春、夏、秋3季的相关系数分别为0.775、0.608和0.822,其中秋季的订正更为有效,可用性更高。这可能受到不同季节气溶胶来源、特征以及数据样本差异的影响。最后分别建立全年、春季、夏季和秋季的线性、对数、一元二次、乘幂和指数5种类型的拟合模型。考虑模型易于利用的因素,依据各拟合模型相关系数的大小得到全年以及各季节最优拟合模型,该模型函数可用来反演和监测乌鲁木齐市空气质量指数。  相似文献   

The anisotropy of cosmic ray arrival directions around 10 eV     

N. Hayashida  M. Nagano  D. Nishikawa  H. Ohoka  N. Sakaki  M. Sasaki  M. Takeda  M. Teshima  R. Torii  T. Yamamoto  S. Yoshida  K. Honda  N. Kawasumi  I. Tsushima  N. Inoue  E. Kusano  K. Shinozaki  N. Souma  K. Kadota  F. Kakimoto  K. Kamata  S. Kawaguchi  Y. Kawasaki  H. Kitamura  Y. Matsubara  K. Murakami  Y. Uchihori  H. Yoshii 《Astroparticle Physics》1999,10(4):125-311

Anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays with energies above 10¹⁷ eV is studied using data from the Akeno 20 km² array and the Akeno Giant Air Shower Array (AGASA), using a total of about 114 000 showers observed over 11 years. In the first harmonic analysis, we have found a strong anisotropy of 4% around 10¹⁸ eV, corresponding to a chance probability of 0.2% after taking the number of independent trials into account. with two-dimensional analysis in right ascension and declination, this anisotropy is interpreted as an excess of showers near the directions of the Galactic Center and the Cygnus region.  相似文献   

毛乌素沙地3种飞播植物种群分布格局的研究   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

沈渭寿 《中国沙漠》1998,18(4):372-378

在播区水平和群落水平上,讨论了毛乌素沙地3种沙丘类型区飞播后,沙地由流动到半固定和固定状态的变化过程中,籽蒿、羊柴和花棒3个主要飞播植物种群分布格局的变化,以及各种状态下决定种群分布格局的主导因素。研究表明:在沙地处于流动状态下,不论是播区水平还是群落水平上,幼苗的分布格局都是由环境的空间异质性决定的;在半固定状态下,种群的分布格局是植物自身的生物生态学特性和环境因素共同作用的结果;而在固定状态下,种群的分布格局几乎全部是由植物自身的生物生态学特性所决定的。  相似文献