基于奇异谱分析的南方涛动指数短期气候预测试验   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Liu Jianwen  Dong Peiming 《大气科学进展》2001,18(5):873-881

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) time series is analyzed by means of the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method with 60-month window length. Two major oscillatory pairs are found in the series whose pe riods are quasi-four and quasi-two years respectively. The auto-regressive model, which is developed on the basis of the Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analy sis, is fitted to each of the 9 leading components including the oscillatory pairs. The prediction of SOI with the 36-month lead is obtained from the reconstruction of these extrapolated series. Correlation coefficient between predicted series and 5 months running mean of observed series is up to 0.8. The model can successfully predict the peak and duration of the strong ENSO event from 1997 to 1998. It＇s also shown that the proper choice of reconstructed components is the key to improve the model prediction.  相似文献   

Subsurface influence on SST in the tropical Indian Ocean: structure and interannual variability     

Suryachandra A. Rao  Swadhin K. Behera 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2005,39(1-2):103

Interannual variations of subsurface influence on SST in the Indian Ocean show strong seasonality. The subsurface influence on SST confines to the southern Indian Ocean (SIO) in boreal winter and spring; it is observed on both sides of the equator in boreal summer and fall. Interannual long Rossby waves are at the heart of this influence, and contribute significantly to the coupled climate variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). Principal forcing mechanism for the generation of these interannual waves in the Indian Ocean and the relative influence of two dominant interannual signals in the tropics, namely El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are also discussed. Two distinct regions dominated by either of the above climate signals are identified. IOD dominates the forcing of the off-equatorial Rossby waves, north of 10°S, and the forcing comes mainly from the anomalous Ekman pumping associated with the IOD. However, after the demise of IOD activity by December, Rossby waves are dominantly forced by ENSO, particularly south of 10°S.It is found that the subsurface feedback in the northern flank of the southern Indian Ocean ridge region (north of 10°S) significantly influences the central east African rainfall in boreal fall. The Indian Ocean coupled process further holds considerable capability of predicting the east African rainfall by one season ahead. Decadal modulation of the subsurface influence is also noticed during the study period. The subsurface influence north of 10°S coherently varies with the IOD, while it varies coherently with the ENSO south of this latitude.  相似文献   

Improved magnetic anomalies of the Antarctic lithosphere from satellite and near-surface data     

Hyung Rae Kim  Ralph R. B. von Frese  Patrick T. Taylor  Alexander V. Golynsky  Luis R. Gaya-Piqué  Fausto Ferraccioli 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(1):119-126

The Antarctic magnetic anomaly map compiled marine and airborne surveys collected south of 60°S through 1999 and used Magsat data to help fill in the regional gaps between the surveys. Ørsted and CHAMP satellite magnetic observations with greatly improved measurement accuracies and temporal and spatial coverage of the Antarctic, have now supplanted the Magsat data. We combined the new satellite observations with the near-surface survey data for an improved magnetic anomaly map of the Antarctic lithosphere. Specifically, we separated the crustal from the core and external field components in the satellite data using crustal thickness variations estimated from the terrain and the satellite-derived free-air gravity observations. Regional gaps in the near-surface surveys were then filled with predictions from crustal magnetization models that jointly satisfied the near-surface and satellite crustal anomalies. Comparisons in some of the regional gaps that also considered newly acquired aeromagnetic data demonstrated the enhanced anomaly estimation capabilities of the predictions over those from conventional minimum curvature and spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models. We also noted that the growing number of regional and world magnetic survey compilations involve coverage gaps where these procedures can contribute effective near-surface crustal anomaly estimates.  相似文献   

Mawson and Mirnyy Stations: the spatiality of the Australian Antarctic Territory, 1954–61     

Christy Collis 《The Australian geographer》2007,38(2):215-231

This article focuses on the spatiality of the Australian Antarctic Territory in the important 1954–61 period. Attending particularly to three key components of polar spatiality—geopolitics, international territorial law, and the built environment—the article analyses the development of the Territory as a unique Australian space. The 1954–61 period is particularly significant: during this period, the International Geophysical Year brought an unprecedented number of people to Antarctica; the continent's first permanent colonies were constructed; and, despite Cold War tensions, the 1961 Antarctic Treaty established the spatial configurations and rules which continue to govern the continent today. The article focuses particularly on two key stations in the Territory constructed during this period: Australia's Mawson Station and the Soviet Mirnyy Station. Mawson is a legal colony, designed to cement Australia's claim to 42 per cent of the Antarctic continent; Mirnyy, in contrast, is an anti-colony, designed to reject Australia's claim. How the individual spatialities of these two stations articulate to the broader politics of Antarctic territoriality—and particularly Australia's claim to the Australian Antarctic Territory—is the focus of this article.  相似文献   

南极普里兹湾夏季海冰边缘区内破碎海冰的分布特征          下载免费PDF全文

卢鹏  李志军  张占海  董西路 《水科学进展》2007,18(6):884-892

基于中国第21次南极考察中获得的69°00'S、76°24'E附近普里兹湾夏季海冰边缘区内破碎海冰的航拍照片,利用图像处理的方法从中提取了破碎海冰的若干几何参数,得到了海冰边缘区内随着与开阔水域距离增大,海冰面积、平均钳测直径等几何参数的变化规律。并按其尺寸的变化规律将海冰边缘区划分为边界区、过渡区和内部区三部分,其变化和波浪在冰边缘区中的衰减过程紧密相关。圆度的变化则说明海冰边缘区中海冰磨损最充分的地方是在冰间相互作用最明显的过渡区。另外,一种改进的幂函数分布和Weibull分布用来对破碎海冰尺寸的累积频率进行拟合,分布函数中各参数的变化情况很好的反映了海冰边缘区内破碎海冰的分布变化。其中,参数L_r随着与开阔水距离增加而增大(说明由于波能衰减导致可以出现的破碎海冰最大尺寸的增加);尺度参数L₀随着与开阔水距离增加而增大(反映了破碎海冰平均尺寸的增加以及由于波能的衰减而导致单位面积区域内尺寸较大的破碎海冰所占比例的增加);分布维数D随着与开阔水距离增加而减小(说明了由于波能的衰减导致破碎海冰所受约束条件的减弱);形状参数γ随着与开阔水距离增加而减小(说明了随着波能的衰减破碎海冰尺寸分布范围的增大)。  相似文献   

反射光谱技术:研究南极企鹅古生态演化的一种新方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

孙静  刘晓东  孙立广  刘文齐 《极地研究》2007,19(3):203-212

为探求快速、廉价、无损和同步的光谱技术在南极生态环境研究中的可能性,本文利用南极阿德雷岛的四根企鹅粪土沉积柱样品的反射光谱,通过逐步多元线性回归和主成分回归两种数学运算方法,建立了反射光谱数据与企鹅粪九种标型元素浓度之间的关系,并探讨了南极企鹅粪土沉积物光谱数据的古生态意义。结果表明:南极粪土沉积样品反射率光谱与企鹅粪九种标型元素(P、Ca、Cu、F、Ba、S、Zn、Sr、Se)含量之间存在良好的相关性,预测值与实测值之间的相关系数R都达到了0.9以上,在深度剖面上预测浓度与实测浓度具有非常一致的变化趋势;南极粪土沉积物光谱数据包含有明确的古生态变化信息,可利用主成分分析快速恢复历史时期企鹅数量演化过程。本研究结果为在偏远的南极地区开展古生态环境研究提供了一种新的快捷方法和技术途径。  相似文献   

National and institutional productivity and collaboration in Antarctic science: an analysis of 25 years of journal publications (1980–2004)     

Prabir G. Dastidar 《Polar research》2007,26(2):175-180

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Fhe application of electromagnetic-induction on the measurement of sea ice thickness in the Antarctic     

Guo Jingxue Sun Bo Tian Gang 《应用地球物理》2007,4(3):214-220

As an important component of the cryosphere, sea ice is very sensitive to climate change. The study of sea ice physics needs accurate sea ice thickness. This paper presents an electromagnetic induction （EM） technique which can be used to measure the sea ice thickness distribution efficiently and its successful application in the Antarctic Neila Fjord. Based on the electrical properties of sea ice and seawater and the application of electromagnetic field theory, this technique can accurately detect the distance between the EM instrument and the ice/water interface to measure the sea ice thickness. Analyzing the apparent conductivity data obtained by the electromagnetic induction technique and drill-hole measurements at same location allows the construction of a transform equation for the apparent conductivity and sea ice thickness. The verification of the calculated sea ice thickness using this equation indicates that the electromagnetic induction technique is able to determine reliable sea ice thickness with an average relative error of only 5.5%. The ice thickness profiles show the sea ice distribution in Neila Fjord is basically level with a thickness of 0.8 - 1.4 m.  相似文献   

电磁感应技术在南极海冰厚度探测中的研究与应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郭井学  孙波  田钢 《应用地球物理》2007,4(3)

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中山站至A冰穹考察及沿线GPS复测结果分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王清华  鄂栋臣  陈春明 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2001,26(3):200-204,231

南极中山站至A冰穹（Dome-A)考察沿线布设有GPS等精度定位点，通过用高精GPS静态定位处理软件GAMIT／GLOBK对三期观测数据的处理可知，考察沿线的GPS点以8－25m/a的速度向西北方向（冰盖边缘方向）流动，越接近冰盖边缘，运动速度赵快，最快达到100m/a；而且冰川整体上以1－5m/^2的加速度流动。同时，由冰盖的流动，引起了垂直方向0－2－1m/a的沉降速度。  相似文献