“双峰”期孟加拉湾风暴对西南水汽输送的贡献     

段旭  张瑾文 《大气科学》2015,39(3):526-534

5月和10～11月是孟加拉湾风暴活动的两个"峰值"期, 风暴对西南水汽输送有重要影响, 本文利用2001～2010年10年的JTWC(Joint Typhoon Warning Centre)风暴资料和NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)1°×1°再分析资料, 研究风暴"双峰"期对西南水汽输送的贡献, 结果表明:风暴水汽向北输送最强, 其次是向东输送, 其它方向的输送较弱;在风暴中心区域及西南水汽通道, 各层和整层的 通量均大于气候平均值, 风暴的西南水汽输送特征显著;两个"峰值"期风暴的经向水汽输送比纬向几乎大一倍, 5月"峰值"期孟加拉湾风暴在西南方向的实际水汽输送总量约是10～11月的2倍, 孟加拉湾风暴前"峰值"期(5月)对水汽输送的影响大于后"峰值"期(10～11月), 孟加拉湾风暴是5月西南水汽输送的主要系统之一。  相似文献   

坚固体孕震模式前兆场演化的数值模拟     

聂永安  陈宇坤 《东北地震研究》1999,15(4):1-8

本文针对华北地区的构造、应力场特征及介质特性,建立了华北地区具有代表性的坚固体孕震模型,对具有前兆观测意义的地表垂直位移场和近地表平均正应力场进行了模拟计算,并通过与均匀分层模型结果的,是出了地表垂直位移和近地表平均正应力的分布及其动态时空发展过程。结果表明,坚固体和下地壳隐伏断层的存在均可形成地表位移场和近地表应力场的异常。该异常随外荷载的增大呈加速增强趋势,因而具有很重要的前兆意义。  相似文献   

Absorbed dose,equivalent dose,measured dose rates,and implications for OSL age estimates: Introducing the Average Dose Model     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2017

Luminescence ages are calculated by dividing an absorbed dose by the dose rate to which the natural dosimeter has been exposed. In practice, one measures an equivalent dose, D_e; in the absence of an alpha dose contribution, this should be indistinguishable from the dose absorbed in nature. Here we first review the relationship between absorbed dose, equivalent dose and dose rate, and the measurements that lead to their estimation; we restate that, in contrast to recent suggestions, an equivalent dose is not a physically different quantity from a beta or gamma dose absorbed by quartz grains. Statistical analysis of OSL data is of great importance when dealing with single grain data, since such data commonly exhibit significant scatter. However, dose rate measurements provide an arithmetic mean of dose rates absorbed by individual grains; in this article, we propose a new model to estimate the average dose absorbed by the grains. We thus introduce a new model for OSL age estimates: the Average Dose Model (ADM). We argue that ADM ages should be more accurate than Central Age Model (CAM) based ages, and we provide experimental evidence supporting this expectation. We also argue that the use of the Finite Mixture Model should be avoided. Finally, we discuss the implications for multi-grain age estimates derived from well-bleached samples.  相似文献   

埋入源多道面波分析(MASW)中最小偏移距的估计方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘康  戴靠山  许强  翁渝峰  黄李观  赵逍  游庆瑜 《地球物理学报》2018,61(6):2421-2432

多道面波分析（MASW）法是一种被广泛使用的浅层地震勘探方法.为解决埋入源近场效应对MASW法应用的影响,本文分析了埋入源产生的Rayleigh波传播机制,探讨了MASW法的排列参数对地震记录的影响,提出了确定最小偏移距的经验公式.通过对实际地质模型的有限元模拟,验证了经验公式的合理性.在以经验公式为指导的野外实测中,利用多种方法提取了相对可靠的频散曲线,采用基阶和高阶面波联合反演,所得的一维速度结构与钻孔资料具有很强的相关性,表明本文发展的最小偏移距估计方法具有一定的实际应用价值.  相似文献   

柴达木盆地托素湖不同位置岩芯沉积物指标对比及其环境意义     

丁宗艳  张家武  杨盼盼  周姗  张玉枝 《湖泊科学》2020,32(1):259-270

湖泊不同位置岩芯沉积物相同代用指标的变化是否一致对于重建可靠的区域气候变化历史至关重要.目前多数研究仅利用深水区单一的沉积岩芯来反演区域的气候环境变化,对于不同位置岩芯重建结果的异同尚缺乏研究.本文选择托素湖不同位置、不同水深的4根短钻岩芯沉积物,在放射性核素(210 Pb和137 Cs)定年的基础上,对比分析各岩芯沉积物粒度、碳酸盐含量等代用指标的变化情况.结果显示,湖泊内相近的沉积岩芯沉积物粒度变化相似,但相距较远的岩芯之间粒度变化差异较大;浅水区的沉积物粒度(粒径或组分含量)在短时间尺度上变化很大,而深水区的沉积环境比较稳定,在百年尺度上的变化不明显;有机质与碳酸盐含量总体变化趋势一致且有较好的相关性,表明碳酸盐可能受到湖泊生产力的影响.碳酸盐含量、碳酸盐氧同位素(δ18 O)和TL06孔孢粉的A/C比值变化基本一致,反映的有效湿度变化与同期气象记录的相对湿度一致,但与降水量和蒸发量的变化不一致.因此,托素湖粒度指标仅指示不同位置钻孔沉积环境状况,与气候变化的关系并不明显,用碳酸盐及其同位素等地球化学指标恢复区域气候变化历史更可靠.  相似文献   

基于气象旱涝指数的旱涝急转事件识别方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨家伟  陈华  侯雨坤  赵英  陈启会  许崇育  陈杰 《地理学报》2019,74(11):2358-2370

基于长江流域212个气象站点1961-2017年的日降水资料,借助标准化加权平均降水指数（SWAP）,结合多门槛游程理论,提出一种识别旱涝急转事件的新方法。方法应用于旱涝急转事件高发的长江流域,分别从典型站点旱涝事件分析、区域典型旱涝急转事件分析、旱涝急转事件时空分布规律分析等角度,探讨了长江流域1961-2017年旱涝急转事件规律。结论显示：①SWAP指数对于旱涝事件具有良好的识别能力。②聚类方法可聚合相似旱涝急转事件,2011年长江中下游旱涝急转事件中干旱事件占主导地位,持续时间远长于洪涝事件。③ 长江流域旱涝急转事件呈现明显的区域规律：上游发生频率较低,中下游偏高;此外,长江流域多数分区近期旱涝急转事件发生频率呈现上升趋势。研究结果表明,基于SWAP指数并结合多门槛游程理论的方法能够比较准确地识别旱涝急转事件,可进一步应用于旱涝急转事件的预测及评估中。  相似文献   

基于平均滤波算法的北疆春季日最低气温格点预报产品订正分析          下载免费PDF全文

张祖莲  张山清  毛炜峄  王命全  木沙江.艾代吐力 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2021,15(5):16-23

本文选用中国气象局下发的0.05°×0.05°的国家级格点预报指导产品和中国气象局陆面数据同化系统（CLDAS）逐时实况数据资料，使用三种平均滤波方法分别订正北疆地区08时、20时起报的240h内逐24h 最低气温的格点预报指导产品，并分别对比检验订正前后共8种产品的预报效果。检验结果表明: 订正后的预报产品相比原始格点预报指导产品的均方根误差均明显降低，气温预报准确率及稳定性均显著提高。三种订正算法均随着海拔高度越高订正效果越好，且随着预报时效延长订正效果减弱。三种算法中集成订正效果略优。  相似文献   

用T-矩阵法分析降水粒子在微波段下的Z_(DR)特性     

陈康  王庆安 《气象科学》2000,20(4)

本文采用Ｔ－矩阵方法从理论计算的角度分析了在Ｘ、Ｃ和Ｓ波段下不同轴比、大小和相态的扁椭球降水粒子的差反射率因子ＺＤＲ,对为三种波长的双线偏振雷达实际运用提出了更合理的解释,得到若干有用的结论。文中还对Ｔ－矩阵方法的准确性进行地评价。  相似文献   

Multi-hazard susceptibility mapping based on Convolutional Neural Networks     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(5):101425

Multi-hazard susceptibility prediction is an important component of disasters risk management plan. An effective multi-hazard risk mitigation strategy includes assessing individual hazards as well as their interactions. However, with the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, multi-hazard susceptibility prediction techniques based on machine learning has encountered a huge bottleneck. In order to effectively solve this problem, this study proposes a multi-hazard susceptibility mapping framework using the classical deep learning algorithm of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). First, we use historical flash flood, debris flow and landslide locations based on Google Earth images, extensive field surveys, topography, hydrology, and environmental data sets to train and validate the proposed CNN method. Next, the proposed CNN method is assessed in comparison to conventional logistic regression and k-nearest neighbor methods using several objective criteria, i.e., coefficient of determination, overall accuracy, mean absolute error and the root mean square error. Experimental results show that the CNN method outperforms the conventional machine learning algorithms in predicting probability of flash floods, debris flows and landslides. Finally, the susceptibility maps of the three hazards based on CNN are combined to create a multi-hazard susceptibility map. It can be observed from the map that 62.43% of the study area are prone to hazards, while 37.57% of the study area are harmless. In hazard-prone areas, 16.14%, 4.94% and 30.66% of the study area are susceptible to flash floods, debris flows and landslides, respectively. In terms of concurrent hazards, 0.28%, 7.11% and 3.13% of the study area are susceptible to the joint occurrence of flash floods and debris flow, debris flow and landslides, and flash floods and landslides, respectively, whereas, 0.18% of the study area is subject to all the three hazards. The results of this study can benefit engineers, disaster managers and local government officials involved in sustainable land management and disaster risk mitigation.  相似文献