Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations     

John B. Rundle  Paul B. Rundle  Andrea Donnellan  P. Li  W. Klein  Gleb Morein  D.L. Turcotte  Lisa Grant   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):109

Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques.  相似文献   

Dye dispersion in the surf zone: Measurements and simple models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

L.B. Clarke  D. Ackerman  J. Largier 《Continental Shelf Research》2007

To examine the spatial and temporal effect of low-volume land-based runoff on beach contamination, discrete batches of dye were released at the shoreline at three beaches in Santa Monica Bay in 2000 (Malibu Creek, Santa Monica Canyon and Pico–Kenter drain). Dye concentration was measured at the shoreline 25, 50 and 100 m alongshore from the dye release point for up to 40 min after dye release. The shoreline concentration time series are characterized either by approximately exponential decay in concentration after passage of the dye patch maximum concentration or by persistent low concentration up to 30 min after passage of the initial dye patch front. In the absence of detailed measurements of physical conditions, several simple advection–diffusion models are used to simulate shoreline concentration time series for an idealized surf zone in order to probe the roles of alongshore current shear and rip currents in producing the observed characteristics in dye concentration time series. Favorable qualitative and quantitative comparison of measured and simulated time series suggest alongshore current shear and rip currents play key roles in generating the observed characteristics of nearshore dye patch dispersion. The models demonstrate the potential effects of these flow features on the extent and duration of beach contamination owing to a continuous contamination source.  相似文献   

Benthic foraminifera show some resilience to ocean acidification in the northern Gulf of California,Mexico     

L.R. Pettit  M.B. Hart  A.N. Medina-Sánchez  C.W. Smart  R. Rodolfo-Metalpa  J.M. Hall-Spencer  R.M. Prol-Ledesma 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

Extensive CO₂ vents have been discovered in the Wagner Basin, northern Gulf of California, where they create large areas with lowered seawater pH. Such areas are suitable for investigations of long-term biological effects of ocean acidification and effects of CO₂ leakage from subsea carbon capture storage. Here, we show responses of benthic foraminifera to seawater pH gradients at 74–207 m water depth. Living (rose Bengal stained) benthic foraminifera included Nonionella basispinata, Epistominella bradyana and Bulimina marginata. Studies on foraminifera at CO₂ vents in the Mediterranean and off Papua New Guinea have shown dramatic long-term effects of acidified seawater. We found living calcareous benthic foraminifera in low pH conditions in the northern Gulf of California, although there was an impoverished species assemblage and evidence of post-mortem test dissolution.  相似文献   

Geometry of the Wagner basin,upper Gulf of California based on seismic reflections     

《International Geology Review》2012,54(2):133-144

The Wagner basin occupies the northernmost spreading centre in the Gulf of California, located along the Pacific‐North America plate boundary. It is filled with sediments from the Colorado River that obscure its bathymetric expression; therefore it is not as well defined as other basins in the central and southern Gulf of California. To define the geometry and extension of the Wagner basin, a 2D multi‐channel seismic reflection database was used. Data were collected by Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) in 1979–1980. The most important regional structural features identified are the Consag and Wagner normal faults and the Cerro Prieto strike‐slip fault. These structures play an important role in the development of the basin. The Consag fault, described for the first time in this paper, marks the western side of the basin. The eastern and northwest limits are bound by the Cerro Prieto and Wagner faults respectively. The Wagner fault intersects the Cerro Prieto fault at an angle of 130°, bending the depocentre in a NW direction, adjacent to the Cerro Prieto fault zone. The northernmost segment of the Consag fault bends 25° in a NE direction and joins the Cerro Prieto fault at an angle of 110°. Greater subsidence (up to 300 m) takes place along the northern trace of the Cerro Prieto fault, with a downthrown displacement of 400 m. The Consag and Wagner breaks obliquely intersect the Cerro Prieto fault, and, inasmuch as both are normal faults, they have small horizontal slip components which generated oblique displacement. This structural pattern is different relative to the pattern of basins located south of Wagner basin, such as the Upper and Lower Delfin basins. The orientations of the normal faults are perpendicular to the master fault (Ballenas transform fault). The relationship between normal and transform faults in the Wagner basin and the observed ‘S’ shape are typical of a basin that has not yet reached maturity. As a result of this study, the previously uncertain area (～1330 km²) and perimeter (158 km) of the Wagner basin were defined.  相似文献   

Faulty construction: Earthquakes and the culture of prevention in California     

James C. Williams 《GeoJournal》2000,51(3):255-258

In the last half of the twentieth century, urban Californians came to expect that engineering solutions would overcome the threat of natural seismic activities. This sanguine attitude is rooted in the rise of urban/industrial society, which resulted in huge capital investments in modern cities, complex infrastructures, and made residents increasingly dependent on centralized services for water, fuel, food, transportation, communication, and shelter. While peril from earthquakes seldom concerned people in the rural/agrarian world, the nature of the modern city enormously heightened the risk of ruinous loss to human life and property from natural disasters. The cataclysmic earthquake that wreaked havoc on San Francisco in 1906 plainly illustrated this, and in its wake engineers and geologists developed a sustained interest in understanding seismic activity and constructing earthquake-safe buildings.The study of earthquakes and aseismic building construction evolved with each new earthquake. Earthquake intensities and ground motions were measured and compared. Fallen and standing structures were studied. Chasing earthquakes became a way of life for some investigators, as they gained confidence that they could make modern cities safe against tremors. Over time a culture of prevention emerged, initially fostered by engineers and geologists, eventually sustained by those who invested in the modern city – capitalists and governing officials – and ultimately embraced by the general public. Thus, Californians became believers in a culture of prevention grounded in societal confidence that people can control the natural world with science and technology.  相似文献   

Earthquake resistant building design codes and safety standards: The California experience     

Stephen H. Cutcliffe 《GeoJournal》2000,51(3):259-262

Seismologists and earthquake engineers have sought to understand and predict earthquakes and to develop better building designs to withstand them for well over a century. In the United States, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake provided the first real impetus for establishing building design codes and safety standards. Subsequent major California earthquakes in Santa Barbara (1925), Long Beach (1933), San Fernando (1971), Loma Prieta (1989), and Northridge (1994) each led to additional seismological understanding and engineering response in the form of enhanced building design codes. Nonetheless, the process to incorporate good seismic design and mitigation efforts has been slow, and by no means failsafe, especially in the Eastern U.S. where much of the building stock predates more recent design codes, and hence where a major earthquake could collapse large numbers of buildings. Even in the absence of catastrophe, it is still important to guard against a false sense of security.  相似文献   

皖中膨胀土的承载比(CBR)强度特性研究   总被引：5，自引：4，他引：1  

陈修和  张胜  陈为成  秦卫 《工程地质学报》2006,14(3):386-389

针对皖中地区高速公路建设中遇到的膨胀土问题,选取合六叶高速公路典型土样开展了系统的承载比（CBR）特性试验研究,并在此基础上探讨了膨胀土作为路基填料的适用性。研究表明:（1）起始含水量对膨胀土CBR值影响显著,CBR最大值对应的含水量高于最佳含水量,且击实功越大,二者差值也越大;（2）CBR膨胀量随起始含水量增大而减小,起始含水量越低,CBR膨胀量就越大,路基的水稳性就越差;（3）当击实功较大时,膨胀土的最佳含水量较小,适合填筑的可变含水量范围较宽,建议现场施工控制采用重型击实标准;（4）在重型击实条件下,将弱膨胀土起始含水量控制在比最优含水量大2%4%范围内,能同时满足压实度和CBR值要求以用于填筑下路堤,中膨胀土作为路基填料时必须经过改性处理。研究结果对于在膨胀土地区进行公路建设具有参考意义。  相似文献   

Probabilistic performance‐based optimum design of seismic isolation for a California high‐speed rail prototype bridge          下载免费PDF全文

Yong Li  Joel P. Conte 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(2):497-514

Previous comparison studies on seismic isolation have demonstrated its beneficial and detrimental effects on the structural performance of high‐speed rail bridges during earthquakes. Striking a balance between these 2 competing effects requires proper tuning of the controlling design parameters in the design of the seismic isolation system. This results in a challenging problem for practical design in performance‐based engineering, particularly when the uncertainty in seismic loading needs to be explicitly accounted for. This problem can be tackled using a novel probabilistic performance‐based optimum seismic design (PPBOSD) framework, which has been previously proposed as an extension of the performance‐based earthquake engineering methodology. For this purpose, a parametric probabilistic demand hazard analysis is performed over a grid in the seismic isolator parameter space, using high‐throughput cloud‐computing resources, for a California high‐speed rail (CHSR) prototype bridge. The derived probabilistic structural demand hazard results conditional on a seismic hazard level and unconditional, i.e., accounting for all seismic hazard levels, are used to define 2 families of risk features, respectively. Various risk features are explored as functions of the key isolator parameters and are used to construct probabilistic objective and constraint functions in defining well‐posed optimization problems. These optimization problems are solved using a grid‐based, brute‐force approach as an application of the PPBOSD framework, seeking optimum seismic isolator parameters for the CHSR prototype bridge. This research shows the promising use of seismic isolation for CHSR bridges, as well as the potential of the versatile PPBOSD framework in solving probabilistic performance‐based real‐world design problems.  相似文献   

Impact of multi-annual drought on streamflow and habitat in coastal California salmonid streams     

Matthew J. Deitch  Mia Van Docto  Mariska Obedzinski  Sarah P. Nossaman  Andrew Bartshire 《水文科学杂志》2018,63(8):1219-1235

The 2012–2015 drought in north-central coastal California ranks among the three most prolonged periods of below-median annual rainfall in the past 65 years. In three critical coho salmon streams, summer baseflow was less each additional dry year; streams with summer flow early in the drought had no flow for more than two months in latter years. By the third dry year, summer discharge was 1–5% of recent wet-type years, and 10–20% of the first dry year. Multiannual drought also caused increased dry channel conditions: the percentage of flowing channel reduced from 28 to 55% from the first to the third dry years among three study streams. In the first year following drought, dry-season streamflow resembled early to-mid-drought conditions, while in the second, it approached pre-drought discharge. This multiannual drought foreshadows how multi-annual drought predicted under future climate scenarios may affect critical salmonid streams later this century.  相似文献   

Baja California 边缘PC14 岩芯海水表层温度及生产力变化的百年尺度记录          下载免费PDF全文

邢磊  丁玲  赵美训  张荣平  Alexander van Geen  Joseph D. Ortiz 《海洋与湖沼》2009,40(4):385-392

加利福尼亚流是北太平洋环流的重要组成部分,它的变化对全球气候及碳循环有重要影响.对位于东北太平洋低纬区BajaCalifornia外海的PC14柱状样进行了有机地球化学分析,重建了过去14ka来这一地区百年尺度的海水表面温度及生产力变化,发现其存在明显的B/A(Bling-Aller)和YD(Younger Drays)事件,但B/A和YD事件温度变化幅度小于中纬度地区.与中纬度加利福尼亚流系早中全新世温度降低不同,PC14全新世温度无明显变化趋势.这些结果表明了东太平洋低纬地区对高纬地区的气候响应以及沿岸上升流和ENSO现象对加利福尼亚流系中纬和低纬地区的影响不同.从冰消期到全新世,PC14生产力呈现阶段上升趋势,指示了由E1 Nino气候向La Nifia气候的转化以及沿岸上升流加强的总体趋势.在全新世中后期(6.5-3.8ka)生产力的降低,则可能是受ENSO加强的影响.在B/A暖期,PC14生产力增加不多,但氧最小层强度增加,这表明生产力变化不是东太平洋边缘海的氧最小层强化的控制因素.  相似文献